Scottish independence referendum, 2014 facts for kids
|Scottish independence referendum|
|Should Scotland be an independent country?|
|Date||18 September 2014|
|Note: Saturation of colour denotes strength of vote|
A referendum on Scottish independence took place on 18 September 2014. The referendum question, which voters answered with "Yes" or "No", was "Should Scotland be an independent country?" The "No" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage.
The Scottish Independence Referendum Bill, setting out the arrangements for this referendum, was passed by the Scottish Parliament in November 2013, following an agreement between the Scottish and the United Kingdom governments, and was enacted as the Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013. To pass, the independence proposal required a simple majority. With some exceptions, all European Union (EU) or Commonwealth citizens resident in Scotland aged 16 or over could vote, a total of almost 4.3 million people. This was the first time that the electoral franchise was extended to include 16 and 17 year olds in Scotland.
Yes Scotland was the main campaign group for independence, while Better Together was the main campaign group in favour of maintaining the union. Many other campaign groups, political parties, businesses, newspapers and prominent individuals were also involved. Prominent issues raised during the referendum included which currency an independent Scotland would use, public expenditure, EU membership, and North Sea oil.
- Border controls and immigration
- European Union
- Health care
- International relations
- Status of Northern and Western Isles
- Opinion polling
- Reactions to the result
- Images for kids
Formation of the United Kingdom
The Kingdom of Scotland and the Kingdom of England were established as independent countries during the Middle Ages. After fighting a series of wars during the 14th century, the two monarchies entered a personal union in 1603 (the Union of the Crowns) when James VI of Scotland also became James I of England. The two nations were temporarily united under one government when Oliver Cromwell was declared Lord Protector of a Commonwealth in 1653, but this was dissolved when the monarchy was restored in 1660. Scotland and England united to form the Kingdom of Great Britain in 1707, factors in favour of union being, on the Scottish side, the economic problems caused by the failure of the Darien scheme and, on the English, securing the Hanoverian line of succession. Great Britain in turn united with the Kingdom of Ireland in 1801, forming the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. Most of Ireland left the Union in 1922 to form the Irish Free State; consequently, the full name of the United Kingdom since 1927 is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
The Labour Party was committed to home rule for Scotland in the 1920s, but it slipped down its agenda in the following years. The Scottish National Party (SNP) was formed in 1934, but did not achieve significant electoral success until the 1960s. A document calling for home rule, the Scottish Covenant, was signed by 2 million people (out of a population of 5 million) in the late 1940s. Home rule, now known as Scottish devolution, did not become a serious proposal until the late 1970s as the Labour government of James Callaghan came under electoral pressure from the SNP.
A proposal for a devolved Scottish Assembly was put to a referendum in 1979. A narrow majority of votes were cast in favour of change, but this had no effect due to a requirement that the number voting 'Yes' had to exceed 40% of the total electorate.
No further constitutional reform was proposed until Labour returned to power in 1997, when a second Scottish devolution referendum was held. Clear majorities expressed support for both a devolved Scottish Parliament and that Parliament having the power to vary the basic rate of income tax. The Scotland Act 1998 established the new Scottish Parliament, first elected on 6 May 1999, with power to legislate on unreserved matters within Scotland.
2007 SNP administration
A commitment to hold a referendum in 2010 was part of the SNP's election manifesto when it contested the 2007 Scottish Parliament election. The press were largely hostile towards the SNP, with a headline for The Scottish Sun in May 2007 stating – along with an image of a hangman's noose – "Vote SNP today and you put Scotland's head in the noose". As a result of that election, the SNP became the largest party in the Scottish Parliament and formed a minority government led by the First Minister, Alex Salmond.
The SNP administration launched a 'National Conversation' as a consultation exercise in August 2007, part of which included a draft referendum bill, the Referendum (Scotland) Bill. After this, a white paper for the proposed Referendum Bill was published, on 30 November 2009. It detailed 4 possible scenarios, with the text of the Bill and Referendum to be revealed later. The scenarios were: no change; devolution per the Calman Review; further devolution; and full independence. The Scottish government published a draft version of the bill on 25 February 2010 for public consultation; Scotland's Future: Draft Referendum (Scotland) Bill Consultation Paper contained a consultation document and a draft version of the bill. The consultation paper set out the proposed ballot papers, the mechanics of the proposed referendum, and how the proposed referendum was to be regulated. Public responses were invited.
The bill outlined three proposals: the first was full devolution or 'devolution max', suggesting that the Scottish Parliament should be responsible for "all laws, taxes and duties in Scotland", with the exception of "defence and foreign affairs; financial regulation, monetary policy and the currency", which would be retained by the British government. The second proposal outlined Calman-type fiscal reform, gaining the additional powers and responsibilities of setting a Scottish rate of income tax that could vary by up to 10p in the pound compared with the rest of the UK, setting the rate of stamp duty land tax and "other minor taxes", and introducing new taxes in Scotland with the agreement of the UK Parliament, and finally, "limited power to borrow money". The third proposal was for full independence.
In the 3rd Scottish Parliament only 50 of 129 MSPs (47 SNP, 2 Greens, and Margo MacDonald) supported a referendum. The Scottish government withdrew the bill after failing to secure opposition support.
2011 SNP administration
The SNP repeated its commitment to hold a referendum when it published its 2011 Scottish parliamentary election manifesto. Days before the election, Salmond stated that legislation for a referendum would be proposed in the "2nd half of the parliament", as he wanted to secure more powers for the Scottish Parliament via the Scotland Bill first. The SNP gained an overall majority in the election, winning 69 from 129 seats, thereby gaining a mandate to hold an independence referendum.
In January 2012, the UK government offered to legislate to provide the Scottish Parliament with the powers to hold a referendum, providing it was "fair, legal and decisive". This would set "terms of reference for the referendum", such as its question(s), elector eligibility and which body would organise the vote. As the UK government worked on legal details, including the timing of the vote, Salmond announced an intention to hold the referendum in the autumn of 2014. Negotiations continued between the two governments until October 2012, when the Edinburgh Agreement was reached.
The Scottish Independence Referendum (Franchise) Act 2013 was passed by the Scottish Parliament on 27 June 2013 and received Royal Assent on 7 August 2013. On 15 November 2013, the Scottish government published Scotland's Future, a 670-page white paper laying out the case for independence and the means through which Scotland might become an independent country.
In 2013, as part of a European Union (EU) member state, Scottish farmers received £583 million in subsidy payments from the EU under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Annual CAP payments are made to the UK, which then determines how much to allocate to each of the devolved administrations, including Scotland. In the last CAP agreement, farmers in the UK qualified for additional convergence payments because Scottish farmers receive a lower average single farm payment per hectare, mainly due to the mountainous terrain in Scotland. Supporters of independence therefore believed that an independent Scotland would receive greater agricultural subsidies than when part of the UK. Opponents of independence believed that Scottish farmers benefited because the UK was one of the larger EU member states and therefore had a greater say in CAP negotiations. They also questioned whether an independent Scotland would immediately receive full subsidy payments from the EU, as recent new member states had had their subsidies phased in.
Border controls and immigration
The UK has some opt-outs from EU policies. One is the opt-out from the Schengen Area, meaning there are full passport checks for travellers from other EU countries except the Republic of Ireland, which is part of the Common Travel Area (CTA) with the UK. The Scottish government proposed that an independent Scotland should remain outside the Schengen Area and join the CTA, ensuring that no passport controls would be needed at the Anglo-Scottish border. Nicola Sturgeon commented that an independent Scotland would negotiate with the EU to have the same visa arrangements as the UK has.
Alistair Carmichael, the Secretary of State for Scotland, said in January 2014 that it would make sense for Scotland to be in the CTA, but it would have to operate similar immigration policies to the rest of the UK. This position was supported by Home Secretary Theresa May, who said in March 2014 that passport checks should be introduced if Scotland adopted a looser immigration policy. The Conservative MP Richard Bacon said there would be "no reason" for border controls to be implemented.
In the white paper Scotland's Future, the Scottish government pledged to expand childcare provision in an independent Scotland. The paper stated that this policy would cost £700 million, but that this would be financed by increased tax revenue from an additional 100,000 women returning to work.
Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont said that the policy should be implemented immediately if the Scottish government believed it would have a beneficial effect, but Salmond responded that under devolution the costs of the policy would have to be financed by cuts elsewhere in public expenditure. In March 2014, the National Day Nurseries Association said that the plan could not be implemented unless greater funding was provided by local authorities to private nurseries. A report by the Scottish Parliament Information Centre questioned the economic benefit of the policy, pointing out that there were only 64,000 mothers of children aged between 1 and 5 who were economically inactive. A spokesman for Salmond said that the estimated total 104,000 women would enter the workforce over a longer period, as future generations of mothers would also be able to work, stating: "The key point about the policy is that it doesn't happen on one day or one year and then cease."
The Scottish government proposed that all British citizens who had been born in Scotland would automatically become Scottish citizens on the date of independence, regardless of whether or not they were then living in Scotland. British citizens "habitually resident" in Scotland would also be considered Scottish citizens, even if they already held the citizenship of another country. Every person who would automatically be considered a Scottish citizen would be able to opt out of Scottish citizenship provided they already held the citizenship of another country. The Scottish government also proposed that anyone with a Scottish parent or grandparent would be able to apply for registration as a Scottish citizen, and any foreign national living in Scotland legally, or who had lived in Scotland for at least 10 years at any time and had an ongoing connection to Scotland, should be able to apply for naturalisation as a Scottish citizen. UK Home Secretary Theresa May said future policies of an independent Scottish government would affect whether Scottish citizens would be allowed to retain British citizenship. An analysis paper published by the UK government in January 2014 stated that it was likely that Scots would be able to hold dual citizenship; however, the duality was considered with respect to all other countries, not specifically to the rest of the UK. The possibility of holding dual UK–Scotland citizenships could be subject to the "proof of affinity".
The SNP said that there was a defence underspend of "at least £7.4 billion" between 2002 and 2012 in Scotland and that independence would allow the Scottish government to correct this imbalance. In its white paper, the Scottish government planned that an independent Scotland would have a total of 15,000 regular and 5,000 reserve personnel across land, air and maritime forces by 2026. In July 2013, the SNP proposed that there would be a £2.5 billion annual military budget in an independent Scotland. The House of Commons Defence Select Committee said that the £2.5bn budget was too low. Andrew Murrison, UK Minister for International Security Strategy agreed and said it was "risible" for the SNP to suggest it could create an independent force by "salami-slicing" from current British armed forces units.
The House of Commons defence committee also stated that Scottish independence would have a negative effect on its industry, while the UK government said it would not be willing to build warships in a foreign country. Geoff Searle, the director of BAE Systems' Type 26 Global Combat Ship programme, said in June 2014 that the company had no alternative plan for shipbuilding, but this position was later revised by the Chairman of BAE, who stated that they could resume shipbuilding in the English city of Portsmouth if an independent Scotland was established. The chief executive of Thales, one of Britain's largest defence suppliers, said that if Scotland became independent that this might raise questions about continued investment from his firm.
The Royal United Services Institute said in 2012 that an independent Scotland could set up a Scottish Defence Force, comparable in size and strength to those of other small European states like Denmark, Norway and Ireland, at an annual cost of £1.8 billion. The authors acknowledged that an independent Scotland would "need to come to some arrangement with the rest of the UK" on intelligence-gathering, cyber-warfare and cyber-defence, that the future cost of purchasing and maintaining equipment of its forces might be higher due to smaller orders, and that recruitment and training "may prove problematic" in the early years.
Dorcha Lee, a former colonel in the Irish Army, said that Scotland could eschew forming an army based on inherited resources from the British Army and instead follow an Irish model of a limited self-defence force.
The Trident nuclear missile system is based at Coulport weapons depot and naval base of Faslane in the Firth of Clyde area. While the SNP objects to having nuclear weapons on Scottish territory, British military leaders have said that there is no alternative site for the missiles; in April 2014, several British military leaders co-signed a letter stating that forcing Trident to leave Scottish waters would place the UK nuclear deterrent in jeopardy. Nowhere to Go, a report by Scottish CND, concluded that the removal of Trident from Scotland would force unilateral nuclear disarmament by the United Kingdom, as the weapons have no viable alternative base. A report by the Royal United Services Institute said that relocating Trident would be "very difficult, but not impossible" and estimated that it would take about 10 years and create an additional cost of around £3 billion.
A seminar hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace stated that the Royal Navy would have to consider a range of alternatives, including disarmament. A report in 2013 from the Scotland Institute think tank suggested a future Scottish government could be convinced to lease the Faslane nuclear base to the rest of the UK to maintain good diplomatic relations and expedite NATO entry negotiations.
In 2012 the SNP dropped a long-standing policy of opposition in principle to NATO membership. MSPs John Finnie and Jean Urquhart resigned from the SNP over the policy change. The Scottish Green Party and Scottish Socialist Party remained opposed to continued membership of NATO.
The SNP position that Trident nuclear weapons should be removed from Scotland but that it should hold NATO membership was criticised by Willie Rennie, leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, and Patrick Harvie, co-convenor of the Scottish Green Party. Alex Salmond said it would be "perfectly feasible" to join NATO while maintaining an anti-nuclear stance and that Scotland would pursue NATO membership only "subject to an agreement that Scotland will not host nuclear weapons and NATO continues to respect the right of members to only take part in UN sanctioned operations". In 2013, Professor Malcolm Chalmers of the Royal United Services Institute stated that "pragmatists" in the SNP accepted that NATO membership would be likely to involve a long-term basing deal enabling the UK to keep Trident on the Clyde.
The former Secretary General of NATO and Scottish Labour peer Lord Robertson said in 2013 that "either the SNP accept the central nuclear role of NATO ... or they reject the nuclear role of NATO and ensure that a separate Scottish state stays out of the world's most successful defence alliance." General Richard Shirreff criticised SNP proposals for defence and questioned whether other NATO members would accept an independent Scotland that rejected the principle of nuclear deterrence. This was disputed by Mariot Leslie, a former UK permanent representative to NATO, who stated that NATO would not want to disrupt its arrangements by excluding Scotland.
A UK government paper on security stated that Police Scotland would lose access to the intelligence apparatus of the UK, including MI5, SIS and GCHQ. The paper also said that an independent Scottish state would need to build its own security infrastructure. Theresa May commented that an independent Scotland would have access to less security capability, but would not necessarily face a reduced threat. In 2013, Allan Burnett, former head of intelligence with Strathclyde Police and Scotland's counter-terrorism co-ordinator until 2010, said that "an independent Scotland would face less of a threat, intelligence institutions will be readily created, and allies will remain allies". Peter Jackson, professor of security at the University of Glasgow, agreed that Special Branch could form a "suitable nucleus" of a Scottish equivalent of MI5, and that Scotland could forego creating an equivalent of MI6, instead "relying on pooled intelligence or diplomatic open sources" like Canada or the Nordic countries. Baroness Ramsay, a Labour peer and former case officer with MI6, said that the Scottish government's standpoint on intelligence was "extremely naïve" and that it was "not going to be as simple as they think". Nicola Sturgeon stated that Scotland would create its own security service like MI5 to work alongside police and tackle terrorism, cyber attacks and serious organised crime. She also stated that creating an external intelligence agency would remain an option.
The Scottish government and pro-independence campaigners said that a democratic deficit existed in Scotland because the UK was a unitary state that did not have a codified constitution. The SNP also described the unelected House of Lords as an "affront to democracy". The "democratic deficit" label has sometimes been used to refer to the period between the 1979 and 1997 UK general elections, during which the Labour Party held a majority of Scottish seats but the Conservative Party governed the whole of the UK. Alex Salmond said in September 2013 that instances such as this amounted to a lack of democracy, and that "the people who live and work in Scotland are the people most likely to make the right choices for Scotland". In January 2012, Patrick Harvie said: "Greens have a vision of a more radical democracy in Scotland, with far greater levels of discussion and decision making at community level." The Scottish Government intended that an independent Scotland should have a written constitution which "expresses our values, embeds the rights of our citizens and sets out clearly how our institutions of state interact with each other and serve the people".
Menzies Campbell wrote in April 2014 that any democratic deficit had been addressed by creating the devolved Scottish Parliament, and that "Scotland and the Scottish have enjoyed influence beyond our size or reasonable expectation" within the British government and the wider political system. Conservative MP Daniel Kawczynski said in 2009 that the asymmetric devolution in place in the UK has created a democratic deficit for England. This is more commonly known as the West Lothian question, which cites the anomaly where English MPs cannot vote on affairs devolved to Scotland, but Scottish MPs can vote on the equivalent subjects in England. Kawczynski also pointed out that the average number of voters in a parliamentary constituency is larger in England than in Scotland.
During the campaign each of the three main UK parties conducted reviews into devolution, with each recommending that more powers should be devolved to the Scottish Parliament. On the morning prior to a televised debate between Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling, a joint statement was published by Better Together. Co-signed by the 3 main UK party leaders, it stated a commitment to grant Scotland increased power over domestic taxes and parts of the social security system. Boris Johnson, the Conservative mayor of London, stated his opposition to giving the Scottish Parliament greater fiscal powers. During the second televised debate, Salmond challenged Darling to specify which additional powers that could help create greater employment in Scotland would be granted if there was a "no" vote. During a visit to Scotland later that week, David Cameron promised more powers "soon".
On 8 September, former Prime Minister Gordon Brown suggested a timetable for the additional powers to be implemented in the event of a "no" vote. He proposed that work on a new Scotland Act would begin immediately after the referendum, resulting in the publication of a white paper by the end of November 2014. Two days before the referendum, the three main UK party leaders (Cameron, Miliband and Clegg) publicly pledged to introduce "extensive new powers" by the timetable suggested and that the Barnett formula of public funding would be continued.
A principal issue in the referendum was the economy. The UK Treasury issued a report on 20 May 2013 which said that Scotland's banking systems would be too big to ensure depositor compensation in the event of a bank failure. The report indicated that Scottish banks would have assets worth 1,254% of GDP, which is more than Cyprus and Iceland before the last global financial crisis. It suggested Scottish taxpayers would each have £65,000 of potential liabilities during a hypothetical bailout in Scotland, versus £30,000 as part of the UK. Economists including Andrew Hughes Hallett, Professor of Economics at St Andrews University, rejected the idea that Scotland would have to underwrite these liabilities alone. He observed that banks operating in more than one country can be given a joint bailout by multiple governments. In this manner, Fortis Bank and the Dexia Bank were bailed out collectively by France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. The Federal Reserve System lent more than $1 trillion to British banks, including $446 billion to the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), because they had operations in the United States.
Robert Peston reported in March 2014 that RBS and Lloyds Banking Group might be forced to relocate their head offices from Edinburgh to London in case of Scottish independence, due to a European law brought in after the 1991 collapse of the Bank of Credit and Commerce International. Financial groups The Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds, Clydesdale Bank, TSB and Tesco Bank later announced that they planned to move their registered headquarters from Scotland to England in the event of Scotland voting for independence; most indicated that they had no immediate intention to transfer any jobs.
Weir Group, one of the largest private companies based in Scotland, commissioned a study by Oxford Economics into the potential economic effects of Scottish independence. It found that Weir would pay more corporation tax, despite the Scottish government's proposal to cut the rate of corporation tax, due to it no longer being able to offset losses in Scotland against profits in the rest of the UK. It also stated that independence would result in additional costs and complexity in the operation of business pension schemes. The report found that 70% of all Scottish exports are sold to the rest of the UK, which it said would particularly affect the financial services sector. Standard Life, one of the largest businesses in the Scottish financial sector, said in February 2014 that it had started registering companies in England in case it had to relocate some of its operations there.
In February 2014, the Financial Times noted that Scotland's per capita GDP is bigger than that of France when a geographic share of oil and gas is taken into account, and still bigger than that of Italy when it is not. As of April 2014, Scotland had a similar rate of unemployment to the UK average (6.6%) and a lower fiscal deficit (including as a percentage of GDP) than the rest of the UK. Scotland performed better than the UK average in securing new Foreign Direct Investment in 2012–13 (measured by the number of projects), although not as well as Wales or Northern Ireland. GDP growth during 2013 was lower in Scotland than in the rest of the UK, although this was partly due to an industrial dispute at the Grangemouth Refinery.
Deutsche Bank issued a report in the week prior to the referendum and the media reported on 13 September that David Folkerts-Landau, the bank's chief economist, had concluded: "While it may sound simple and costless for a nation to exit a 300 year-old union, nothing could be further from the truth". Folkerts-Landau claimed that the economic prospects after a "yes" vote were "incomprehensible," citing Winston Churchill's 1925 Gold Standard decision and the actions of America's Federal Reserve that triggered the Great Depression of the 1930s, as other mistakes of a similar magnitude. The Swiss UBS financial services company supported the position of the Deutsche Bank.
Supporters of independence have said that Scotland does not meet its full economic potential because it is subject to the same economic policy as the rest of the UK. In 2013, the Jimmy Reid Foundation published a report stating that UK economic policy had become "overwhelmingly geared to helping London, meaning Scotland and other UK regions suffer from being denied the specific, local policies they need". Later in January 2014, Colin Fox said that Scotland is "penalised by an economic model biased towards the South East of England". In November 2013, Chic Brodie said that Scotland was "deprived" of economic benefit in the 1980s after the Ministry of Defence blocked oil exploration off the West of Scotland, ostensibly to avoid interference with the UK's nuclear weapons arsenal.
Another major economic issue was the currency that would be used by an independent Scotland. The principal options were to establish an independent Scottish currency, join the euro, or retain the pound sterling (a form of currency substitution).
Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, the SNP's policy was that an independent Scotland should adopt the euro, though this was relegated to a long-term rather than short-term goal by the party's 2009 conference. There was disagreement over whether Scotland would be required to join the euro if it wished to become an EU member state in its own right. All new members are required to commit to joining the single currency as a prerequisite of EU membership, but they must first be party to ERM II for two years, something that requires an own currency. The Scottish government argued that countries have a de facto opt-out from the euro because they are not obliged to join ERM II. For example, Sweden has not yet adopted the euro. The people of Sweden rejected adopting the euro in a 2003 referendum and its government has not joined by refusing to enter ERM II.
The SNP favoured continued use of sterling in an independent Scotland through a formal currency union with the UK, with the Bank of England setting its interest rates and monetary policy and acting as its central bank. The white paper Scotland's Future identified five key reasons that a currency union "would be in both Scotland and the UK's interests immediately post-independence": Scotland's main trading partner is the UK (⅔ of exports in 2011); "companies operating in Scotland and the UK [...have] complex cross-border supply chains"; there is high labour mobility; "on key measurements of an optimal currency area, the Scottish and UK economies score well"; and short-term economic trends in the UK and Scotland have "a relatively high degree of synchronicity".
In June 2012, Alistair Darling said voters in the rest of the UK could choose not to be in a currency union with Scotland. Former Prime Minister Sir John Major rejected the idea of a currency union, saying it would require the UK to underwrite Scottish debt. Another former Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, said the SNP proposal would create a "colonial relationship" between Scotland and Westminster. The Welsh First Minister, Carwyn Jones, said in November 2013 that he would seek a veto on a currency union between Scotland and the rest of the UK.
Yes Scotland said that a currency union would benefit both Scotland and the rest of the UK, as Scotland's exports would boost the balance of payments, and consequently strengthen the exchange rate of sterling. Meanwhile, UK economists and financial experts stated that the effect on the balance of payments and the exchange rate would be "largely neutral". Sterling fell by almost one cent against the US dollar in a day early in September 2014, due to an opinion poll showing a swing towards the Yes campaign. The Financial Times reported a few days later that "Asset managers, investors and pension savers are moving billions of pounds out of Scotland" because of fears that Scotland would leave the UK. The newspaper also reported that "'exit clauses' are being inserted into commercial property contracts in Scotland to allow buyers to scrap deals or renegotiate prices if voters opt for independence".
The Scottish government stated that not having a currency union could cost businesses in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland £500 million in transaction charges when trading with an independent Scotland; Plaid Cymru treasury spokesperson Jonathan Edwards commented that such costs were a "threat to Welsh business". Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont said that any additional transaction costs would fall largely on Scottish companies, costing businesses in Scotland 11 times more than those in England. The Institute of Directors stated that any new transaction costs would "pale in comparison to the financial danger of entering an unstable currency union."
If Scotland joined a currency union with the UK, some fiscal policy constraints could be imposed on the Scottish state. Banking experts have said that being the "junior partner" in a currency arrangement could amount to "a loss of fiscal autonomy for Scotland". Dr Angus Armstrong of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research wrote that the implicit constraints on its economic policy would be more restrictive than the explicit ones it faces as a member of the UK. Salmond said in February 2014 that an independent Scotland in a currency union would retain tax and spending powers. Gavin McCrone, former chief economic adviser to the Scottish Office, stated that Scotland's retention of the pound would be pragmatic initially, but problematic thereafter if a Scottish government wished to implement independent policies, and he warned that keeping the pound could lead to the relocation of Scottish banks to London.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer, as well as equivalent post-holders in the two other main UK political parties, rejected the idea of a formal currency union with an independent Scotland in February 2014. Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls said the SNP's proposals for a currency union were "economically incoherent", and that any currency option for an independent Scotland would be "less advantageous than what we have across the UK today".
After the three main UK political parties ruled out a formal currency union as a possibility, the Adam Smith Institute said that the economies of Panama, Ecuador and El Salvador "demonstrate that the informal use of another country's currency can foster a healthy financial system and economy". In September 2014, former European Commissioner Olli Rehn stated that an independent Scotland would be unable to meet EU membership requirements if it shared sterling informally, as it would not have an independent central bank. Rehn's comment was disputed by Salmond, who restated his belief that a sterling currency union would be formed and pledged to create the necessary financial institutions.
The Scottish Socialist Party favoured an independent Scottish currency, pegged to sterling in the short term. The Scottish Green Party said that keeping sterling as "a short term transitional arrangement" should not be ruled out, but also said that the Scottish Government should "keep an open mind about moving towards an independent currency". The Jimmy Reid Foundation, in early 2013, described retention of the pound as a good transitional arrangement, but recommended the eventual establishment of an independent Scottish currency to "insulate" Scotland from the UK's "economic instability". Other proponents of an independent Scottish currency included Yes Scotland chairman Dennis Canavan and former SNP deputy leader Jim Sillars.
On 9 September 2014, Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, said that a currency union between an independent Scotland and the remainder of the UK would be "incompatible with sovereignty". Carney was involved in a "Q&A" session at the Trades Union Congress and further explained that cross-border ties on tax, spending and banking rules are a prerequisite: "You only have to look across the continent to look at what happens if you don't have those components in place ... You need tax, revenues and spending flowing across those borders to help equalise, to an extent, some of the inevitable differences [across the union]." A spokesperson for the SNP's finance minister responded, saying "Successful independent countries such as France, Germany, Finland and Austria all share a currency – and they are in charge of 100% of their tax revenues, as an independent Scotland would be. At present under devolution, Scotland controls only 7% of our revenues." Carney's comments received vocal support from Darling and the GMB trade union, the latter of which supports the retention of the current UK formation.
Government revenues and expenditure
The Barnett formula has resulted in higher per-capita public spending in Scotland than England. Including an allocation of North Sea oil revenue based on geography, Scotland also produced more per capita tax revenue than the UK average in the years immediately preceding the referendum. The Institute for Fiscal Studies reported in November 2012 that a geographic share of North Sea oil would more than cover the higher public spending, but warned that oil prices are volatile and that they are drawn from a finite resource. The Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland report for 2012/13 found that North Sea oil revenue had fallen by 41.5% and that Scotland's public spending deficit had increased from £4.6 billion to £8.6 billion.
In May 2014, the UK government published an analysis identifying a "Union dividend" of £1,400 per year for each person in Scotland, mainly due to the higher level of public spending. The Scottish government disputed this analysis, saying that each Scot would be £1,000 better off per year under independence by 2030. Three economic experts said that both estimates were possible, but they both depended on unknown variables such as the division of UK government debt, future North Sea oil revenues, possible spending commitments of an independent Scotland and future productivity gains.
In its analysis, the UK government also estimated setup costs of £1.5 billion (1% of GDP) for establishing an independent state, or possibly £2.7 billion (180 public bodies costing £15 million each). Patrick Dunleavy of the London School of Economics criticised the UK government's "ludicrous" use of his research in arriving at the latter figure. The Treasury said that their main figure (£1.5 billion) was based on estimates by professor Robert Young of Western University. Two of the main unionist parties in Scotland called on the SNP to publish their own estimate of the setup costs of an independent state, but the Scottish government said that an estimate was not possible as the final bill would depend on negotiations with the rest of the UK. Professor Dunleavy estimated immediate setup costs of £200 million in a report commissioned by the Sunday Post newspaper, with "total transition costs" of between £600 million and £1,500 million in the first 10 years of independence.
The credit rating that an independent Scotland would merit also became a subject of debate. The credit-rating agency Fitch stated in 2012 that it could not give an opinion on what rating Scotland would have, because Scottish finances would largely depend on the result of negotiations between the UK and Scotland on the division of assets and liabilities. Standard & Poor's, another credit-rating agency, asserted in February 2014 that Scotland would face "significant, but not unsurpassable" challenges, and that "even excluding North Sea output and calculating per capita GDP only by looking at onshore income, Scotland would qualify for our highest economic assessment". Research published by Moody's in May 2014 said that an independent Scotland would be given an A rating, comparable with Poland, the Czech Republic and Mexico. An A rating would be two grades below its current rating for the UK, which Moody's said would be unaffected by Scottish independence.
Most issues regarding energy are controlled by the UK government, although control over planning laws allows the Scottish government to prevent the construction of new nuclear power stations in Scotland. Supporters of independence want to retain a single energy market for the whole of Great Britain after independence, in order to maintain price stability and support for suppliers. Opponents have said that independence would threaten the single energy market. Euan Phimister, professor of economics at Aberdeen University, has said that although independence would affect the relationship, it is likely that there would be continued English demand for electricity generated in Scotland because OFGEM projections suggest that there is little spare capacity. The second largest supplier of energy in the UK, SSE plc, believes that a single market would be the most likely outcome under independence, although it would require negotiations and may involve changes to the existing system.
Labour MP Caroline Flint has said that independence would mean higher energy bills in Scotland, as its customers would have to pay more to support renewable energy in Scotland, which represents one third of the UK total. Euan Phimister has said that bills are likely to increase across the whole of Great Britain because renewable schemes and new nuclear power stations in England are both receiving higher subsidies than the power plants which will shortly close due to environmental regulations. He also said that there is a distinction between existing and proposed renewable schemes in that the existing schemes have already been paid for, whereas any new construction requires the promise of subsidy from the consumer. Energy and Climate Change Secretary Ed Davey stated Scottish generators would no longer be eligible for UK subsidies, which would increase energy bills for consumers.
North Sea oil
Approximately 90% of the United Kingdom's North Sea oil fields are located in Scottish territorial waters. The tax revenue generated from an offshore site is not counted within the nation or region nearest to it, but is instead allocated to the UK Continental Shelf. The revenue from North Sea oil has been used to support current expenditure, rather than creating a sovereign oil fund. The SNP believes that a portion of the revenues should be invested in a sovereign oil fund. The Scottish government, citing industry regulator Oil and Gas UK, estimated in Scotland's Future that there were 24 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) remaining to be extracted. Sir Ian Wood, founder of oil services company Wood Group, said in August 2014 that he believed there were between 15 and 16.5 billion boe and that the impact from declining production would be felt by 2030. In September 2014, an investigation by industry recruitment website Oil and Gas People stated that there were extensive oil reserves to the west of the Western Isles and Shetland. The report anticipated that the region would be developed within the next 10 years because of improvements in drilling technology, rig design and surveying.
- See also: Future enlargement of the European Union#Possible future scenarios
The SNP advocated that an independent Scotland should become a full member state of the European Union (EU) with some exemptions, such as not having to adopt the euro. There was debate over whether Scotland would be required to re-apply for membership, and if it could retain the UK's opt-outs. The European Commission (EC) offered to provide an opinion to an existing member state on the matter, but the British government confirmed it would not seek this advice, as it did not want to negotiate the terms of independence ahead of the referendum.
There is no precedent for an EU member state dividing into two sovereign countries after joining the EU. Supporters of independence stated that an independent Scotland would become an EU member by treaty amendment under Article 48 of the EU treaties. Opponents said that this would not be possible and that an independent Scotland would need to apply for EU membership under Article 49, which would require ratification by each member state.
Christina McKelvie, Convener of the European and External Relations Committee of the Scottish Parliament, in March 2014 asked Viviane Reding, Vice-President of the European Commission, whether Article 48 would apply. Reding replied that EU treaties would no longer apply to a territory when it secedes from a member state. She also indicated that Article 49 would be the route to apply to become a member of the EU. José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, stated earlier that an independent Scotland would have to apply for membership, while the rest of the UK would continue to be a member. In 2014, he reiterated that Scotland joining the EU would be "extremely difficult, if not impossible".
The former prime minister Sir John Major suggested in November 2013 that Scotland would need to re-apply for EU membership, but that this would mean overcoming opposition to separatists among many existing member states, particularly Spain. It may block Scottish membership of the EU, amid fears of repercussions with separatist movements in Catalonia and the Basque Country: in November 2013 the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, said: "I know for sure that a region that would separate from a member state of the European Union would remain outside the European Union and that should be known by the Scots and the rest of the European citizens." He also stated that an independent Scotland would become a "third country" outside the EU and would require the consent of all 28 EU states to rejoin the EU, but that he would not seek to block an independent Scotland's entry. Salmond cited a letter from Mario Tenreiro of the EC's secretariat general that said it would be legally possible to renegotiate the situation of the UK and Scotland within the EU by unanimous agreement of all member states. Spain's position was reiterated two days before the referendum by the Spanish European affairs minister, who said "It is crystal clear that any partner member-state that leaves the member state is out of the European Union. If they want to apply again, they would have to follow the procedure of article 49 of the treaties."
Professor Sir David Edward, a former European Court judge, stated that the EU institutions and member states would be "obliged" to start negotiations before independence took effect to decide the future relationship. He said this would be achieved by agreed amendment of the existing Treaties (Article 48), rather than a new Accession Treaty (Article 49). Graham Avery, the EC's honorary director general, agreed with Edward. Avery wrote a report, published by the European Policy Centre, which said that EU leaders would probably allow Scotland to be part of the EU because of the legal and practical difficulties that would arise from excluding it. In a research paper, Professor Sionaidh Douglas-Scott of Oxford University stated that the EU law normally takes a "pragmatic and purposive approach" to issues that are not already provided for by existing treaties. Research published by the Economic and Social Research Council in August 2014 concluded that it was unlikely that an independent Scotland would be cut off from the rights and obligations of EU membership for any period of time, even if Scotland was not formally a member state of the EU from its date of independence.
In January 2013, the Republic of Ireland's Minister of European Affairs, Lucinda Creighton, stated that "if Scotland were to become independent, Scotland would have to apply for membership and that can be a lengthy process"; she later clarified, writing that she "certainly did not at any stage suggest that Scotland could, should or would be thrown out of the EU". In May 2013, Roland Vaubel, an Alternative for Germany adviser, published a paper stating that Scotland would remain a member of the EU upon independence, and suggested there would need to be negotiations between the British and Scottish governments on sharing "the rights and obligations of the predecessor state". Vaubel also said that Barroso's comments on the legal position had "no basis in the European treaties".
Future status of the United Kingdom in the European Union
In January 2013, the British Prime Minister, David Cameron, committed the Conservative Party to a referendum before the end of 2017 on UK membership of the EU if they won the 2015 general election. Legislation for an in/out EU referendum was approved by the House of Commons in November 2013. Studies showed some divergence in attitudes to the EU in Scotland and the rest of the UK. Although a Scottish government review based on survey data between 1999 and 2005 found that people in Scotland reported "broadly similar Eurosceptic views as people in Britain as a whole", Ipsos MORI noted in February 2013 that voters in Scotland said they would choose to remain in the EU in a referendum, while there was a majority for withdrawal in England.
Yes Scotland said that the UK government plans for an EU referendum have caused "economic uncertainty" for Scotland. During a CBI Scotland event attended by Cameron, businessman Mike Rake criticised him for creating uncertainty about EU membership. In response to such criticism, Cameron pointed to examples of inward investment in the UK that he said was not happening in the rest of Europe. Some commentators have suggested that the UK leaving the EU would undermine the case for Scottish independence, since free trade, freedom of movement and the absence of border controls with the UK could no longer be assumed.
Responsibility for health care has been devolved to the Scottish Parliament since it was established in 1999. The Scottish government has enacted health policies which are different from those in England, such as abolishing charges for prescriptions and elderly personal care. NHS Scotland has been operationally independent of the NHS in the rest of the United Kingdom since the formation of the NHS in 1948. Supporters of independence argue that independence is needed because possible reductions in the NHS budget in England would result in reduced funding for Scotland, which would make it difficult to maintain the existing service. Harry Burns, a former chief medical officer for Scotland, said in July 2014 that he thought independence could be beneficial for public health because it may give people greater control of their lives.
In May 2014, about 100 medical workers, including surgeons, consultant doctors, GPs, pharmacists, dentists, hospital porters and janitors joined a pro-independence campaign group called NHS for Yes. Its co-founder described health care in Scotland as "a shining example of self-government for Scotland demonstrably being far better than Westminster government" and said independence would "protect [NHS Scotland] from future Westminster funding cuts, and the damaging impact of privatisation south of the border". In contrast, opponents argued that a subsequent drop in funding to an independent Scottish Government would have a significantly larger affect upon the budget. Concerns were also raised about the impact on the large medical research sector in Scotland from the loss of UK wide research funding.
Two days before the referendum, papers indicating "a funding gap of £400–£450m in the next two financial years, 2015–17", for Scotland's NHS, resulting from Scottish government policies, were leaked to the media. A Scottish government spokesperson commented that the papers were from "part of the regular discussions among NHS leaders to plan for NHS Scotland's future".
Opponents of independence say that being part of the UK is crucial in allowing Scots to obtain specialist treatment elsewhere in the UK. At present, NHS Scotland has reciprocal arrangements in place with the NHS services in the rest of the UK and specialist services are shared. Vote No Borders, a unionist campaign group, ran a cinema advert claiming that Scots would find it more difficult to obtain treatment at the Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH), a London facility which specialises in care for children. Vote No Borders withdrew the advert after GOSH complained that it had not been consulted about the advert and stated that they have reciprocal health care agreements with numerous countries.
The white paper on independence proposes that an independent Scotland would open around 100 embassies around the world. David Cameron has suggested an independent Scotland would be "marginalised" at the United Nations, where the UK is a permanent member of the Security Council. John Major has suggested that, after Scottish independence, the remaining UK could lose its permanent seat at the UN Security Council.
- See also: Union of the Crowns
A republic is favoured by some pro-independence political parties and organisations, including the Scottish Green Party and the Scottish Socialist Party. The SNP is in favour of an independent Scotland retaining the Queen as head of state. Christine Grahame has said she believes that party policy is to hold a referendum on the matter, due to a 1997 SNP conference resolution.
Some media reports suggested that the announcement on 8 September of the pregnancy of Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge with her second child would help pro-union sentiment. The Queen's official position on Scottish independence was neutral. Just prior to the referendum, Elizabeth II said in a private conversation that she hoped people would "think very carefully about the future", a statement quickly published widely in the media.
UK State Pensions are managed by the UK government, paying £113.10 per week to a single person who is of state pension age in 2013/14. The state pension age for men is 65, but this is due to rise to 66 in 2020 and 67 by 2028. Research by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research found that an independent Scotland could delay these increases, due to a lower life expectancy. The Scotland's Future white paper pledged to maintain a state pension at a similar rate to the UK.
Former prime minister Gordon Brown said in April 2014 that Scotland had an above-average share of the public-sector pension bill and concluded that pensions would be protected by sharing risks and resources within the UK. UK government pensions minister Steve Webb said in May 2014 that Scots would be entitled to the current levels of state pension after independence because they had accumulated rights within the existing system. Webb went on to say that there would need to be negotiations between the UK and Scotland as to how these pensions would be paid.
In relation to private pension schemes, a report by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland expressed concern that there were no plans to deal with EU regulations that may affect the funding of cross-border defined benefit schemes. The EC decided in March 2014 not to relax these regulations, which require cross-border schemes to be fully funded.
Scotland hosted the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow, less than two months before the referendum. The Scottish team won a record number of gold medals, which Alan Bisset said would help give voters more belief and confidence. Sunday Herald columnist Ian Bell took an opposing view, saying that sporting success would be unlikely to aid support for independence, due to the lengthy and passionate debate on the subject.
Former Labour first minister Henry McLeish published a report in May 2014 that found no obvious barriers to an independent Scotland competing in the 2016 Summer Olympics. McLeish said that some athletes, particularly those in team sports, may choose to compete for the existing Great Britain team rather than Scotland, as they would be nationals of both states. International Olympic Committee representative Craig Reedie pointed out that Scotland would need to obtain United Nations membership and may want to set its own Olympic qualifying standards, which would need to be done in the period between independence (March 2016) and the closing date for entries (July 2016).
Gordon Brown pointed to the 2012 medal count for Great Britain, saying that it showed the success of a union that included the two nations. Scottish athletes were involved in 13 of the 65 medals won by Great Britain in 2012, but only three of those were won by Scots without assistance from other athletes. Sir Chris Hoy said in May 2013 that it could "take time" for Scottish athletes to "establish themselves in a new training environment", indicating that the good performance of Scottish athletes in the Great Britain team would not automatically translate into that of an independent Scotland team. Hoy also said that he believed the lack of facilities and coaching infrastructure in Scotland would have to be addressed by an independent state.
Status of Northern and Western Isles
The prospect of an independent Scotland raised questions about the future of the Northern Isles (Orkney and Shetland) and the Western Isles, island groups off the Scottish mainland. Some islanders called for separate referendums to be held in the islands on 25 September 2014, one week after the Scottish referendum. In March 2014, the Scottish Parliament published the online petition it had received calling for such referendums, which was supported by Shetland MSP Tavish Scott. The proposed referendums would have asked islanders to choose from three options: that the island group should become an independent country; that it should remain in Scotland; or that (in the event of Scottish independence) it should remain in the UK. The third option would have implemented a conditional promise made in 2012 by an SNP spokesperson, who said that Orkney and Shetland could remain in the United Kingdom if their "drive for self-determination" was strong enough.
Politicians in the three island groups referred to the Scottish referendum as the most important event in their political history "since the inception of the island councils in 1975". Angus Campbell, leader of the Western Isles, said that the ongoing constitutional debate offered the "opportunity for the three island councils to secure increased powers for our communities to take decisions which will benefit the economies and the lives of those who live in the islands". In a meeting of the island councils in March 2013, leaders of the three territories discussed their future in the event of Scottish independence. This included whether the islands could demand and achieve autonomous status within either Scotland or the rest of the UK. Among the scenarios proposed were achieving either Crown Dependency status or self-government modelled after the Faroe Islands, in association with either Scotland or the UK. Steven Heddle, Orkney's council leader, described pursuing Crown Dependency status as the least likely option, as it would threaten funding from the EU, which is essential for local farmers. Alasdair Allan, MSP for the Western Isles, said independence could have a positive impact on the isles, as "crofters and farmers could expect a substantial uplift in agricultural and rural development funding via the Common Agricultural Policy if Scotland were an independent member state of the EU".
In July 2013, the Scottish government made the Lerwick Declaration, indicating an interest in devolving power to Scotland's islands. By November, it had made a commitment to devolve further powers to Orkney, Shetland and the Western Isles in the event of independence. Steven Heddle called for legislation to that effect to be introduced regardless of the referendum result.
A day before the referendum Alistair Carmichael, the MP for Orkney and Shetland, and then-Secretary of State for Scotland, suggested that if Shetland were to vote strongly against independence but the Scottish national vote was narrowly in favour, then a discussion should be had about Shetland becoming a self-governing crown dependency outside of independent Scotland, similar to the Isle of Man. He stated that he did not want such circumstances to arise, "and the best way to avoid this was to vote no in the referendum."
In 2012–13, Scottish universities received 13.1% of Research Councils UK funding. Alan Trench of University College London has said that Scottish universities receive a "hugely disproportionate" level of funding and would no longer be able to access it following independence. Willie Rennie, leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, has suggested that independence would mean Scottish universities losing £210m in research funding. The Institute of Physics in Scotland warned that access to international facilities such as the CERN Large Hadron Collider, the European Space Agency, and European Southern Observatory could require renegotiation by the Scottish government. It also expressed concerns about research funding from UK charities and the reaction of international companies with Scottish facilities.
The Scottish government's education secretary, Michael Russell, has said that Scotland's universities have a "global reputation" that would continue to attract investment after independence. In September 2013, the principal of the University of Aberdeen said that Scottish universities could continue to access UK research funding through a "single research area" that crossed both nations' boundaries. David Bell, professor of economics at the University of Stirling, said that cross-border collaboration might continue, but Scottish universities could still lose their financial advantage. Roger Cook of the Scotland Institute pointed out that although Scottish universities do receive a higher share of Research Councils funding, they are much less dependent on this as a source of funding than their counterparts in England. Professors from Scotland's five medical schools have written an open letter warning that independence would mean Scotland's researcher base being "denied its present ability to win proportionately more grant funding".
Questions have been asked whether Scotland, as an economy of a smaller size than the UK, would still support the same level of research activity, and what additional efforts might be required to establish a system of research councils "north of the border". Jo Shaw, Salvesen chair of European institutions at the University of Edinburgh, noted that in smaller states, relationships between universities and research funders become "cosy", and lead to a "corporatist" approach.
- See also: Tuition fees in the United Kingdom
Students domiciled in Scotland do not pay tuition fees. Students domiciled in the rest of the UK are charged fees of up to £9,000 per annum by Scottish universities, but those from other EU member states are not charged fees, in order to comply with EU law.
If Scotland became an independent state, students from the rest of the UK would be in the position in which students from the rest of the EU are. A University of Edinburgh study found that this would cause a loss in funding and could potentially squeeze out Scottish students. The study suggested three courses of action for an independent Scotland: introduce tuition fees for all students; negotiate an agreement with the EU where a quota of student places would be reserved for Scots; or introduce a separate admissions service for students from other EU member states, with an admission fee attached. It concluded that the EU may allow a quota system for some specialist subjects, such as medicine, where there is a clear need for local students to be trained for particular careers, but that other subjects would not be eligible. The study also found that their third suggestion would run against the spirit of the Bologna agreement, which aims to encourage EU student mobility.
The Scottish government stated in its white paper, Scotland's Future, that the present tuition fees arrangement would remain in place in an independent Scotland, as the EU allows for different fee arrangements in "exceptional circumstances". Jan Figel, a former EU commissioner for education, said in January 2014 that it would be illegal for an independent Scotland to apply a different treatment to students from the rest of the UK. The Law Society of Scotland concurred. A report by a House of Commons select committee stated that it would cost an independent Scottish government £150 million to provide free tuition to students from the rest of the UK. A group of academics campaigning for independence expressed concern that the present arrangements would not continue if Scotland stayed within the UK, due to public spending cuts in England and the consequential effects of the Barnett formula.
The Yes campaign has argued that control of welfare policy would be a major benefit of independence. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, independence would "give the opportunity for more radical reform, so that the [welfare] system better reflects the views of the Scottish people". Yes Scotland and deputy first minister Nicola Sturgeon have said the existing welfare system can only be guaranteed by voting for independence. In September 2013, the Scottish Council for Voluntary Organisations (SCVO), which represents charities, called for a separate welfare system to be established in Scotland.
In November 2013, the Scottish government pledged to use the powers of independence to reverse key aspects of the Welfare Reform Act 2012, which was implemented across the UK despite opposition from a majority of Scotland's MPs. It said it would abolish Universal Credit and the bedroom tax. The SNP has also criticised Rachel Reeves, Labour's shadow secretary of state for work and pensions, for saying a future UK Labour government would be even tougher on benefits than the Cameron ministry.
In January 2012, sources close to the prime minister told The Scotsman that "a unified tax and benefit system is at the heart of a united country" and that these powers could not be devolved to Scotland after the referendum, though Liberal Democrat Michael Moore said in August 2013 that devolution of parts of the welfare budget should be "up for debate". Labour politician Jim Murphy, a former Secretary of State for Scotland, has argued that he is "fiercely committed" to devolving welfare powers to the Scottish Parliament, but also warned that independence would be disruptive and would not be beneficial. Scottish Labour's Devolution Commission recommended in March 2014 that some aspects of the welfare state, including housing benefit and attendance allowance, should be devolved.
Feminist economist Ailsa McKay, a supporter of the Radical Independence movement, argued that an independent Scotland should change its welfare system dramatically by offering all its people a basic income.
Professor John Curtice stated in January 2012 that polling showed support for independence at 32%–38% of the Scottish population, a slight decline from 2007, when the SNP first formed the Scottish government. By 2012, there had been no poll evidence of majority support for independence, although the share "vehemently opposed to independence" had declined. According to Curtice, the polls were stable during most of 2013, with "no" leading by an average of 17% with a year to go. Polling expert Nate Silver said in 2013 that the yes campaign had "virtually no chance" of winning the referendum. Silver later said that although his prediction had been proven "right", he had done little research beforehand.
The gap narrowed after the release of the Scottish government white paper on independence: an average of 5 polls in December 2013 and January 2014 gave 39% yes and 61% no, once 'don't knows' had been excluded. The polls tightened further after the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, stated in February that the UK government was opposed to a currency union; the average yes support increased to 43%, once 'don't knows' had been excluded. There was little movement in the following months, with the average continuing to show 43% yes and 57% no (excluding don't knows) in July 2014 and August 2014.
In September, polls indicated that the vote would be closer than was indicated earlier. On 6 September a YouGov poll gave those in favour 47% versus 45% for those against; excluding those undecided, the figures were 51% and 49%, respectively. The final polls, taken in the last few days of the campaign, indicated a lead for No of 4–6%. There was no exit poll; instead, soon after polling stations had closed, YouGov released a final poll that had been taken during the day of voting, indicating 46% Yes, 54% No.
Writing after the referendum, Nate Silver pointed out that the final margin of victory for No was greater than that indicated by the opinion polls. He suggested that this could have been due to less enthusiastic voters being more pro-Union, which may not have been reflected in the polls. Stephen Fisher, a sociology professor at Oxford University, noted in a study of other constitutional referendums that pollsters had tended to overestimate the "Yes" option.
55.3% voted against independence, with a turnout of 84.6%. 28 of the 32 council areas voted "No", although the four areas that voted "Yes" (Dundee, Glasgow, North Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire) contained over 20% of the Scottish electorate.
The overall turnout of 84.6% was very high for Scotland. Turnout was around 50–60% for elections to the Scottish and UK parliaments in the early 21st century. The most recent United Kingdom general election with a comparable turnout was in 1950, when 83.9% voted. The last ballot in the United Kingdom with a higher turnout than 84.6% was in January 1910, when no women and fewer men were allowed to vote (i.e. before universal suffrage applied to UK elections). Of the 32 areas, East Dunbartonshire had the highest turnout at 91.0%, and Glasgow the lowest at 75.0%.
An academic study, surveying 5,000 Scottish voters soon after the referendum, found that the majority for No was formed by an "unusual alliance" of the very young, average earners, Protestants and women. The study supported polling evidence that there was a gender gap, but countered beliefs that higher earners had supported No and that younger voters had mostly voted Yes.
|Local authority||Yes votes||No votes||Yes (%)||No (%)||Valid votes||Turnout (%)|
|Argyll and Bute||26,324||37,143||41.5%||58.5%||63,467||88.2%|
|Dumfries and Galloway||36,614||70,039||34.3%||65.7%||106,653||87.5%|
|Perth and Kinross||41,475||62,714||39.8%||60.2%||104,189||86.9%|
By UK Parliament constituency
|Constituency||Member of Parliament||Majority (2010)||Number of votes||Proportion of votes||Valid votes||Notes|
|Yes votes||No votes||Yes (%)||No (%)|
|Argyll and Bute||Alan Reid||7.6%||26,324||37,143||41.5%||58.5%||63,467|
|East Lothian||Fiona O'Donnell||24.9%||27,467||44,283||38.3%||61.7%||71,750|
|East Renfrewshire||Jim Murphy||20.4%||24,287||41,690||36.8%||63.2%||65,977|
|Edinburgh East||Sheila Gilmore||23.0%||27,500||30,632||47.3%||52.7%||58,232|
|Edinburgh North and Leith||Mark Lazarowicz||3.6%||28,813||43,253||40.0%||60.0%||72,181|
|Edinburgh South||Ian Murray||0.7%||20,340||38,298||34.7%||65.3%||58,738|
|Edinburgh South West||Alistair Darling||18.6%||24,659||39,509||38.4%||61.6%||64,249|
|Edinburgh West||Mike Crockart||8.2%||22,615||42,946||34.5%||65.5%||65,625|
|Na h-Eileanan an Iar||Angus MacNeil||12.8%||9,195||10,544||46.6%||53.4%||19,739|
|Orkney and Shetland||Alistair Carmichael||51.3%||10,552||19,955||34.6%||65.4%||30,507|
|West Dunbartonshire||Gemma Doyle||41.2%||33,720||28,776||54.0%||46.0%||62,396|
|Notes: This is an incomplete list as not all local authorities counted by ward or constituency.
The constituency results are primarily obtained through local authority breakdowns of the result or the constituency boundaries being co-terminous with the local government district.
By Scottish Parliament constituency
|Constituency||Member of Scottish Parliament||Majority (2011)||Number of votes||Proportion of votes||Valid votes||Notes|
|Yes votes||No votes||Yes (%)||No (%)|
|Cumbernauld and Kilsyth||Jamie Hepburn||13.7%||30,821||28,486||52.0%||48.0%||59,307|
|East Kilbride||Linda Fabiani||6.5%||31,309||36,365||46.3%||53.7%||67,674|
|Falkirk East||Angus MacDonald||12.6%||24,757||29,754||45.4%||54.5%||54,511|
|Falkirk West||Michael Matheson||20.4%||25,732||28,276||47.6%||52.3%||54,008|
|Glasgow Anniesland||Bill Kidd||0.0%||23,718||22,976||50.8%||49.2%||46,694|
|Glasgow Cathcart||James Dornan||6.1%||26,499||23,688||52.8%||47.2%||50,187|
|Glasgow Kelvin||Sandra White||3.6%||23,976||21,742||52.4%||47.6%||45,718|
|Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn||Patricia Ferguson||6.3%||24,079||18,094||57.1%||42.9%||42,173|
|Glasgow Pollok||Johann Lamont||2.7%||26,807||22,956||53.9%||46.1%||49,763|
|Glasgow Provan||Paul Martin||10.8%||25,217||19,046||57.0%||43.0%||44,263|
|Glasgow Shettleston||John Mason||2.8%||23,137||21,911||51.3%||48.7%||45,102|
|Glasgow Southside||Nicola Sturgeon||19.2%||21,346||18,934||53.0%||47.0%||40,280|
|Motherwell and Wishaw||John Pentland||2.4%||29,102||27,848||51.1%||48.9%||59,307|
|Na h-Eileanan an Iar||Alasdair Allan||36.7%||9,195||10,544||46.6%||53.4%||19,739|
|Notes: This is an incomplete list as not all local authorities counted by ward or constituency.
The constituency results are primarily obtained through local authority breakdowns of the result or the constituency boundaries being co-terminous with the local government district.
Reactions to the result
Queen Elizabeth II issued a politically neutral statement following the referendum, stating that it was "a result that all of us throughout the United Kingdom will respect". She said that she and her family would support all efforts to "work constructively for the future of Scotland and indeed all parts of this country".
Prime Minister David Cameron said he was "delighted" with the result, adding: "it would have broken my heart to see our United Kingdom come to an end and I know that this sentiment was shared not just by people across our country but also around the world". While attending a public event with Michael Bloomberg later in September, Cameron told Bloomberg that the Queen had "purred down the line" when he informed her of the result. Cameron admitted he was "very embarrassed" for revealing the Queen's political view, which she had guarded in her own comments.
Alex Salmond, the Scottish First Minister and leader of the SNP, stated that he accepted the "verdict of the people" and called upon "all Scots to follow suit in accepting the democratic verdict of the people of Scotland". He called the referendum a "triumph for the democratic process and for participation in politics". He also resigned as SNP leader and as Scottish First Minister, saying that "for me as leader my time is nearly over but for Scotland the campaign continues and the dream shall never die".
There was a large international reaction to the results of the Scottish independence referendum. The White House congratulated Scotland on their "full and energetic exercise of democracy". President Barack Obama noted the "debate, discussion, and passionate yet peaceful deliberations" and welcomed the result, saying he looked forward to "continuing our strong and special relationship with all the people of Great Britain and Northern Ireland".
John Baird, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada, welcomed the decision and praised the conduct of the referendum. The Premier of Quebec, Philippe Couillard, said that there were limited comparisons between Scotland and Quebec, where the sovereignty movement lost referendums in 1980 and 1995, and suggested a devolved model similar to federalism as a possible future model for the UK: "I think that if the Scots had what we have, Quebecers within Canada, they probably would be quite happy". Stéphane Bédard, leader of the Parti Québécois, described himself as "disappointed" by the result.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that, "We [the German government] have always respected the fact that this referendum was called and that the central government in London agreed to this. And now we respect the outcome of it as well". When asked how she felt about the result she replied "I will not comment on this but just smile".
The Prime Minister of Ireland, Enda Kenny, stated that the Irish government would respect the "democratic decision that Scotland should remain as part of the United Kingdom", he went on to say how "As neighbours, friends and partners across political, economic, cultural and many other spheres, relations between Ireland and Britain have never been stronger. We look forward to working with all parties across these islands in the years ahead. The Good Friday Agreement of 1998 is the historic template for harmonious and mutually beneficial development of the totality of relationships among the peoples of these islands. In particular, it has led to a transformation in relationships between the two great traditions on this island".
Matteo Renzi, Prime Minister of Italy, released a statement saying that "The Italian government, also in its capacity as duty president of the EU, hails the result of the vote democratically expressed by the Scottish people," he later sent a message to David Cameron where he said that Scotland "recognised and appreciated diversity" without "fragmenting".
In a press release following the referendum, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated: "It is an understandable and logical desire of the Scottish people for the central authorities to guarantee respect for their national and cultural identity, language and traditions and also give them more independence to take decisions on Scotland's socioeconomic development and its standing in the united state. We have noted that the UK government has extended concrete promises in this regard. We believe that these factors are extremely important not only for Scotland but also in the general context of devolution processes".
Facing the result of the referendum, Erna Solberg, Prime Minister of Norway, stated to Norwegian broadcaster NRK she was 'glad' Scotland chose to remain in union and that Scottish independence could have become challenging for Norway as a neighbouring country.
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, in a video message, said that the Scottish have avoided serious consequences and "have chosen the most favourable option for everyone; for themselves, for all of Britain and for the rest of Europe". Iñigo Urkullu, the President of the Basque Country, stated on the day of the referendum that as the British Government had allowed Scotland to freely decide its own future, the responsibility of the Basque government was to "follow Scotland's footsteps" in securing a similar agreement in Spain. Artur Mas, President of the Generalitat of Catalonia, described the referendum as a model for a future vote in the Catalonia, and said "What happened in Scotland is not a setback for us, because what we really want in Catalonia is to have the chance to vote". On the day after the Scottish referendum, the Catalan parliament voted to hold a "popular consultation" on Catalan independence, which was scheduled for 9 November 2014. The Spanish government has said that such a vote would be unconstitutional, but the non-binding Catalan self-determination referendum was held anyway. The large majority (80%) voted to make Catalonia an independent country, although two-thirds of Catalans did not participate in the referendum.
Allegations of voting irregularities
Ten voters discovered that someone had voted under their names at polling stations in Glasgow, a method of fraud termed 'personation', and this led to an investigation by Police Scotland.
During a BBC results broadcast, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson said that No campaigners had been "taking tallies" of postal votes and that those showed that No was in the lead. This resulted in complaints to the Electoral Commission because the Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013 states that people attending proceedings related to the receipt of postal votes must not attempt to ascertain the outcome or "communicate any information" from that voting. The Electoral Commission, who cannot investigate criminal allegations, passed the complaints onto Police Scotland. A formal investigation was subsequently opened.
According to official Russian observers, the conditions under which the votes were counted were not up to international standards and that the procedure used made it impossible to check on irregularities. Russia's criticism came just months after the international community rejected the results of a Kremlin-backed referendum held in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory of Crimea. Russian officials said that the strong performance of the SNP in the 2015 UK general election confirmed their suspicions about the Scottish referendum.
A petition demanding a second referendum, based on allegations of vote miscounting, gained more than 70,000 signatures in 24 hours. The petitioners referred to news footage that they claim showed unprocedural emptying of the boxes, a vote-counter placing Yes-votes between No-votes, an official filling in ballot papers, and Yes-votes on top of stacks placed on No-votes sorting tables, as well as to false fire-alarms and subsequent evacuation of polling stations. In response, the Chief Counting Officer, Mary Pitcaithly, declared that the referendum had been "properly conducted". An official spokesperson reiterated this point, saying that they were "satisfied that all counts throughout Scotland were properly conducted" and that incidents in the footage could be "easily explained" and were being presented as a "'conspiracy' theory".
Violence in Glasgow
On the night of 19 September, hundreds of unionists arrived to celebrate the 'No' vote and some attacked independence supporters who had gathered in George Square, Glasgow. Many of the unionists waved Union Jacks or loyalist flags and chanted "Rule, Britannia!" Some appeared to make Nazi salutes and shouted racist abuse. Police officers were drafted in to separate the groups but some unionists broke through police lines. A number of people were reportedly beaten and bottles were thrown. A press photographer told The Scotsman he saw people being "kicked about" and was forced to flee after being threatened. By the end of the following month, the police had made 32 arrests in relation to the events. The violence was condemned by politicians from both the 'Yes' and 'No' camps.
Increase in political activism
In the weeks following the referendum, thousands of people joined the Scottish National Party, the Scottish Green Party or the Scottish Socialist Party, which had all supported a 'Yes' vote. The parties claimed that many of the new members were former Scottish Labour Party members. By 2 October, SNP membership had trebled from 25,000 to 75,000, making it the third largest political party in the UK. Conservative MP David Mundell said that 80,000 people had signed up to their "Friends of the Union" group during the campaign. These people had not necessarily become full members of the Conservative Party because they were not focused on increasing the number of "card-carrying" members.
Following the referendum there were calls for greater unity within Scottish Unionism and to vote tactically against Nationalist candidates. A grass-roots campaign called "Scotland in Union" aimed to encourage tactical voting at the United Kingdom general election, 2015 and to publicise the benefits of being part of the United Kingdom. Analysis by the Electoral Reform Society before the election identified some constituencies where tactical voting could succeed, but also pointed out that many voters would find it difficult to support another party. Writing after the election, Professor John Curtice said that in only one constituency (Edinburgh South) could it be said that tactical voting succeeded in defeating an SNP candidate.
Two days before the referendum, the leaders of the three main UK political parties publicly pledged to devolve "extensive new powers" to the Scottish Parliament. They also agreed to a timetable proposed by Gordon Brown. In his speech responding to the referendum results, David Cameron said that an all-party commission, chaired by Lord Smith of Kelvin, would oversee the implementation of the new powers. Cameron also called for an answer to the West Lothian question, by removing the right of Scottish MPs to vote on legislation relating only to England. This proposal was opposed by Gordon Brown, who signed a petition calling for the additional powers to be devolved without any other conditions being attached.
The proposals were debated at length by the UK and Scottish parliaments. The bill devolving further powers to Scotland was passed unanimously by the Scottish parliament in March 2016.
2015 United Kingdom general election
After the referendum, the SNP took a clear lead over the other parties in Scottish opinion polls. In the 2015 United Kingdom general election, the SNP received 1,454,436 votes, 50.0% of the Scottish vote and 56 out of the 59 Scottish seats in the election. The Scottish Labour Party lost forty of their forty-one seats and the Scottish Liberal Democrats lost ten of their eleven seats – all to the SNP. They replaced the Liberal Democrats as the third largest party in the House of Commons.
2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum
Following the result of the UK-wide referendum on European Union membership, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced the SNP's intent to file legislation authorizing a second referendum on independence. The announcement was bolstered by results showing that all of Scottish council areas voted to remain in the EU while the overall majority of the UK voted to leave the EU.
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