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William M. Gray
William M. Gray (meteorologist).png
Born
William Mason Gray

(1929-10-09)9 October 1929
Died 16 April 2016(2016-04-16) (aged 86)
Alma mater University of Chicago
Known for Research into hurricanes, climate change views
Spouse(s)
Nancy Price
​
​
(m. 1954; her death 2001)​
Children Four
Scientific career
Fields Atmospheric science
Institutions Colorado State University
Thesis On the scales of motion and internal stress characteristics of the hurricane (1964)

William "Bill" Mason Gray (October 9, 1929 – April 16, 2016) was a well-known professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University (CSU). He led the Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU. Many people saw him as a pioneer in predicting hurricanes and a top expert on these powerful storms. Even after he retired from CSU in 2005, Gray continued his research on climate and hurricanes until he passed away.

Early life and career

William Gray was born in Detroit, Michigan, on October 9, 1929. His family moved to Washington, D.C. in 1939. He earned a degree in geography from George Washington University in 1952.

In 1953, Gray joined the United States Air Force. He worked as a weather forecaster overseas for four years, mainly in the Azores and England. After returning to the U.S. in 1957, he became a research assistant at the University of Chicago. There, he earned a master's degree in meteorology in 1959. He then completed his PhD in geophysical sciences in 1964.

Gray joined Colorado State University (CSU) in 1961. He continued to serve in the Air Force Reserves until 1974, retiring as a Lieutenant Colonel. At CSU, he became a professor and guided many students. He advised 20 students who earned PhDs and 50 who earned master's degrees. Many of his students became important figures in meteorology, with some working at the National Hurricane Center. His last student, Philip Klotzbach, later took over Gray's role in leading CSU's hurricane forecasts.

Gray also worked closely with the World Meteorological Organization. Starting in 1978, he traveled to many countries. He helped build connections with meteorologists around the world. In 1985, he organized the first big meeting on tropical cyclones in Bangkok, Thailand.

Gray gave his students advice, which he called his "commandments." For example, "Remember Up-Moist, Down-Dry and Keep it Holy" meant that moisture (like evaporation and rain) is key to understanding the atmosphere. He also disliked too much paperwork, saying, "Thou Shalt Not Concern Thyself Unduly With Commandments and Regulations." He preferred observing the atmosphere over computer models. He encouraged students to ask questions during meetings, saying, "Thou Shalt Not Wait'til the End of a Talk to Ask a Question When Thou Can Interrupt in the Middle."

Personal life

William Gray married Nancy Price on October 1, 1954. They had four children: Sarah, Anne, Janet, and Robert. They were married until Nancy's death in 2001. Gray loved baseball and was a fan of the Washington Senators team. He had hoped to play baseball or basketball professionally, but a knee injury at age 21 stopped him.

Research

One of Gray's biggest achievements was creating seasonal hurricane forecasts. He also discovered that hurricane activity follows natural cycles. He is known as a pioneer in hurricane research, especially for his seasonal predictions. Throughout his career, Gray wrote over 80 scientific papers. Philip Klotzbach called him "one of the greatest minds in hurricane research."

Seasonal hurricane forecasts

In the late 1970s, Gray noticed that there were fewer hurricanes in the North Atlantic Ocean during El Niño years. He was the first scientist to connect these events. His early findings encouraged him to do more research. He found that many global factors affect tropical cyclones. For example, wet periods in the African Sahel region were linked to more major hurricanes hitting the U.S. East Coast. However, he also found that looking at just one factor was not enough.

Using his discoveries, Gray created a way to predict seasonal hurricane activity using statistics. He predicted only the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. He did not predict specific hurricane paths because they were too inconsistent. Gray issued his first seasonal forecast in 1984. This forecast used connections between hurricane activity, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and Caribbean sea-level pressures. This first attempt was quite successful. He then started issuing forecasts before the Atlantic hurricane season began in May and again before the peak of the season in August. Over the years, students and colleagues joined his forecast team.

After the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, Gray announced he was stepping back from leading CSU's hurricane forecasts. He passed the role to Philip J. Klotzbach. Gray said he wanted to spend more time studying global warming. He believed that humans were only responsible for a small part of global warming, and that it was mostly a natural Earth cycle.

Climate change views

After retiring from CSU, William Gray expressed different views on climate change. He believed that while global warming was happening, human activities were only a small cause. He thought it was mainly part of Earth's natural cycles. In 2011, Gray wrote a paper for the American Meteorological Society. In it, he shared his views that differed from the common scientific agreement on human-caused global warming.

Peter Webster, a professor at Georgia Institute of Technology, reviewed some of Gray's research proposals. Webster decided not to fund Gray's climate change research because he felt it did not meet the required standards. However, Webster did recommend funding Gray's hurricane research, as he believed it was excellent. Webster, who had worked with Gray on other scientific papers, also noted that Gray sometimes criticized scientists he disagreed with.

Awards and honors

William Gray received many awards for his important research and for guiding his students:

  • Fellow at the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
  • 1992 – Colorado State University "Jack E. Cermak" Graduate School Award for Outstanding Adviser
  • 1993 – Co-recipient of the American Meteorological Society Banner I. Miller Award
  • 1993 – American Meteorological Society Jule G. Charney Award
  • 1995 – Neil Frank Award of the National Hurricane Conference for his "pioneering research into long-range hurricane forecasting."
  • 1995 – Honorary lifetime achievement award from the 12th World Meteorological Organization Congress.
  • 1995 – ABC Television person of the week
  • 1995 – Man of Science Award from the Colorado Chapter of the Achievement Rewards for College Scientists
  • 2014 – First-ever recipient of the Robert and Joanne Simpson Award

See also

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