Image: Projected impact of climate change on agricultural yields by the 2080s, compared to 2003 levels (Cline, 2007)

Description: This map shows the projected impact of climate change in the 2080s on agricultural productivity across the world. Impacts are measured as a percentage change in agricultural productivity compared to 2003 levels. It is based on work by Cline (2007) (referred to by the European Environment Agency (EEA), 2011, pp.74-75). Cline (2008) also provides details of the study and can be freely downloaded. According to the EEA (2011, p.74): "Although global production may increase initially (before 2030), global warming is projected to have negative effects in the long run. While production at high latitudes will generally benefit from climate change, in many African countries and Latin America it is projected to be severely compromised [...]." The map represents a "business-as-usual" scenario, i.e., the world adopts no new measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (EEA, 2011, p.75). It takes into account the assumed benefits of increases in carbon fertilization (EEA, 2011, p.75). Calculations are based on the average output of six general circulation models (GCMs) of the Earth's climate system (EEA, 2011, p.75). Raw data on which the map is based can be downloaded as an Excel spreadsheet from the source website (EEA, 2010). References: Cline, W.R., (2007): Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country. Center for Global Development, Washington DC ,USA; Cline, W.R., (March 2008): Global Warming and Agriculture. Finance and Development, vol 45, no. 1. International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, USA; EEA, (2011): The European environment — state and outlook 2010: assessment of global megatrends. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Title: Projected impact of climate change on agricultural yields by the 2080s, compared to 2003 levels (Cline, 2007)
Credit: EEA (14 December 2010): Projected impact of climate change on agricultural yields. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark. Last modified September 5, 2011.
Author: European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Permission: From original source: "EEA standard re-use policy: unless otherwise indicated, re-use of content on the EEA website for commercial or non-commercial purposes is permitted free of charge, provided that the source is acknowledged (http://www.eea.europa.eu/legal/copyright). Copyright holder: European Environment Agency."
Usage Terms: Public domain
License: Public domain
Attribution Required?: No