2052 - A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years facts for kids

2252 - A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years is a book by Jørgen Randers. He is an expert who studies how the world is changing. This book looks at what might happen to our planet over the next 40 years. It continues the ideas from an older, famous book called The Limits to Growth, which was written in 1972 for a group called the Club of Rome. The Club of Rome is a group of thinkers who study big global problems.

This new book is different from the older one in three main ways:

• It doesn't predict a disaster. Instead, it just shows possible trends, which are like directions the world might go.
• It looks at what we've learned since 1972. People have started to react to the warnings from the first report, but it took about 20 to 40 years for changes to begin.
• It doesn't just guess about the future. It also gives ideas on how people can prepare for these changes.

Global Forecasts

Jørgen Randers's ideas in the book try to answer two big questions: "What will happen to people who buy things over the next 40 years?" and "What kind of world – both society and nature – will this future buying happen in?" He uses special computer programs to help him make these predictions. These programs help him see how different things affect each other.

Population and Consumption

Here are some of the book's predictions about people and what they buy:

• The total number of people in the world will start to go down around the year 2040.
• The number of people working will be highest around 2030.
• People will become better at making things (this is called productivity), but there will be some challenges.
• The total value of goods and services produced by a country (called gross domestic product or GDP) will still grow, but more slowly than before.
• Countries and people will need to spend more money on new projects, both because they have to and because they want to.
• There will be new costs for everyone.
• The money needed to deal with climate change and fix problems caused by disasters will go up a lot.
• Governments will become more involved in people's lives and the economy.
• The amount of things people buy and use will stop growing and might even go down in some places.

Energy and Climate

The book also makes predictions about energy use and the Earth's climate:

• We will keep getting better at using energy efficiently, meaning we'll get more done with less energy.
• The demand for energy will still go up, but it won't keep rising forever.
• The amount of carbon dioxide (CO₂) released into the air from using energy will reach its highest point around 2030.
• The Earth's temperature will rise by more than two degrees Celsius. This will cause serious problems for everyone.

Resources and Nature

Here's what the book says about food, resources, and our impact on the planet:

• It will become very difficult to get natural resources like metals and minerals.
• We will use more and more of the Earth's ability to provide resources and absorb waste (this is called our ecological footprint).
• Cities will become important places to find raw materials like metals, even more so than digging them out of the ground. This is like "urban mining."
• Just like zoos protect many endangered animals today, parks and protected areas will become the last safe places for nature in general.

The Future of Knowledge

Randers also talks about how our non-physical world, like information, might change:

• He believes that the global gross domestic product (GDP) won't grow as fast as it used to. This is because the population will get older and shrink, and productivity won't increase as quickly.
• The internet will change how we think about private and public information.
• Knowledge will be everywhere and easy to find. But just having knowledge won't always help people make smarter choices, especially when strong interests are involved.
• Because of this, we might need special "green teams" to make sure people follow environmental rules. These teams would be similar to peacekeeping forces that help keep peace in the world today.