Decision theory facts for kids
Decision theory is like a special guide that helps us make the best choices. It uses ideas from mathematics, especially probability theory (which is about how likely things are to happen), statistics (which helps us understand data), and logic (which is about thinking clearly).
Imagine you have to pick between different options, like choosing which game to play or what path to take. Decision theory helps figure out which choice will lead to the best outcome by looking at what might happen after each decision.
Most of the time, decision theory assumes that the person making the choice knows everything important. They know all the possible results of their actions and can pick the very best one.
Contents
How We Make Decisions
There are different ways to think about how decisions are made or how they should be made.
Thinking About the Best Choices
Decision theory can be split into three main ways of looking at decisions:
- Normative decision theory: This part describes how people *should* make choices if they are thinking perfectly logically. It uses clear rules, like steps in a math problem, to find the best decision. It's all about finding the most sensible way to decide.
- Prescriptive decision theory: This part tries to help real people make better decisions. It knows that humans don't always think perfectly. So, it gives us tools and models (like simple plans or guides) to follow. These tools help us make good choices even when we don't know everything or can't think through every single detail.
- Descriptive decision theory: This part studies how people *actually* make decisions in real life. It looks at what choices people truly make, not just what they should do. By understanding real-life choices, it tries to find ways to improve how we decide things.
Choices with Different Levels of Certainty
Decision theory also looks at how much we know about the future when we make a choice:
- Choice under certainty: This is when you know exactly what will happen for each choice you make. For example, if you choose to buy a specific candy bar, you know exactly what candy bar you will get. The decision maker knows all the options and what will happen with each one. They just pick the one they like the most.
- Choice under uncertainty: This is when you don't know exactly what will happen, but you might know how likely different things are. For example, if you choose to play a game, you don't know if you'll win or lose, but you might know the chances (like a 50% chance of winning). There are several possible results for each action, and the decision maker knows the chances (probabilities) of each result happening.
See also
In Spanish: Teoría de la decisión para niños
