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Minsk Protocol
A map of the buffer zone established by the Minsk Protocol follow-up memorandum
Normandy format talks in Minsk (February 2015) 03
The leaders of Belarus, Russia, Germany, France, and Ukraine at the 11–12 February 2015 summit in Minsk, Belarus

The Minsk agreements were a set of international plans and promises made in 2014 and 2015 to try and stop a conflict in eastern Ukraine. They aimed to create a ceasefire (a stop to fighting), remove heavy weapons, and find a peaceful way for different groups in the region to live together. Unfortunately, these agreements were never fully put into action and eventually broke down, leading to a larger conflict in 2022.

The Minsk Agreements: A Journey Towards Peace (and its Challenges)

Our story begins in 2014 in a country called Ukraine, which is in Eastern Europe. Ukraine is a big country, and like many places, it has different regions with people who have different ideas and connections.

In February 2014, a big change happened when Russia, Ukraine's neighbor, took control of a part of Ukraine called Crimea. This was a very serious event that changed the relationship between the two countries. After this, some protests and unrest started in eastern and southern parts of Ukraine. In the eastern region, known as Donbas, some groups declared themselves independent, forming what they called the "Donetsk People's Republic" (DPR) and "Luhansk People's Republic" (LPR). Most countries in the world did not recognize these groups as independent.

Soon, fighting broke out between Ukrainian forces and these groups, who were supported by Russia. This conflict became known as the Donbas war.

In the summer of 2014, Ukraine launched a counter-offensive, trying to take back the areas where fighting had started. They managed to get back a lot of territory! However, by late August 2014, Russia sent more of its regular military forces to help the groups it supported in Donbas. After a big battle at a place called Ilovaisk, where Ukrainian forces faced a tough defeat, it became clear that a peaceful solution was desperately needed. This led to the first attempt at an agreement.

Minsk I (September 2014)

Who Was Involved?

  • The Trilateral Contact Group was a special group made up of representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and an organization called the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). The OSCE is like an international watchdog that helps keep peace and security.
  • Leaders from France (François Hollande) and Germany (Angela Merkel) also played a big role, helping to mediate and bring everyone to the table.

This group was called the "Normandy Format" because they first met during the 70th anniversary of D-Day in Normandy, France.

The agreement was signed on September 5, 2014, in Minsk, the capital city of Belarus. It was signed by the representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the OSCE. Representatives from the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR also signed, though their status wasn't officially recognized by other countries.

What Did Minsk I Say?

The Minsk Protocol, or Minsk I, was a list of twelve important steps everyone agreed to take to stop the fighting and start building peace. Here are some of the main ideas, simplified:

  • An immediate and complete ceasefire (a stop to all fighting).
  • The OSCE would watch to make sure the ceasefire was really happening.
  • Give more power to local governments in the Donbas region, allowing them to make more decisions for themselves.
  • The OSCE would help monitor the border between Ukraine and Russia to ensure security.
  • All people held captive or illegally detained would be released.
  • A law would be passed to prevent people from being punished for things that happened during the conflict (unless they committed serious crimes).
  • Keep negotiating to find solutions for the whole country.
  • Take steps to improve the lives of people in Donbas, who were suffering because of the conflict.
  • Hold early local elections in the Donbas region, following Ukrainian laws.
  • All illegal armed groups, military equipment, and foreign fighters would leave Ukraine.
  • Start a plan to rebuild the economy and damaged areas in Donbas.
  • Make sure that everyone involved in the peace talks was safe.

Did Minsk I Work?

Sadly, even with all these promises, the fighting didn't completely stop. In the weeks after Minsk I was signed, there were still many violations of the ceasefire. A follow-up agreement, called a memorandum, was signed on September 19, 2014, to try and clarify things, like banning combat flights and pulling back heavy weapons to create a buffer zone. But even this didn't fully work.

By January 2015, the ceasefire had completely broken down. There was heavy fighting, especially around Donetsk International Airport, and Russia sent more forces. Ukrainian forces suffered another big defeat at Debaltseve. It became clear that a new, stronger agreement was needed.

Minsk II – A Second Chance for Peace (February 2015)

Because Minsk I didn't fully succeed in stopping the conflict, leaders decided they needed to try again. This led to a new, more detailed agreement.

Who Was Involved This Time?
A big summit (a meeting of important leaders) was held on February 11, 2015, in Minsk, Belarus. It was attended by:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin
  • Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel
  • French President François Hollande
  • Representatives from the DPR and LPR

These negotiations were very long and difficult, lasting for sixteen hours!

What Were the Main Ideas of Minsk II?

On February 12, 2015, a new agreement called the "Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements," or simply Minsk II, was signed. It had even more detailed steps:

  • A complete stop to fighting starting at midnight on February 15, 2015.
  • Both sides would pull back their heavy weapons (like big cannons and rocket launchers) to create a safe zone.
  • The OSCE would closely watch the ceasefire and weapon withdrawal using special tools like satellites and drones.
  • A discussion would start about how to hold local elections in Donbas according to Ukrainian law, and about giving these areas a "special status" (more self-governance).
  • A law would be passed to forgive people involved in the conflict (again, for non-serious crimes).
  • All hostages and illegally held people would be released, based on the principle of "all for all."
  • Safe delivery of help (food, medicine) to people who needed it.
  • Rebuild economic and social links, like paying pensions and restoring banking services.
  • Ukraine would regain full control of its state border in the conflict zone, which would happen after local elections and constitutional reform.
  • All foreign armed groups, military equipment, and mercenaries would leave Ukraine under OSCE supervision.
  • Ukraine would change its constitution by the end of 2015 to include decentralization (giving more power to local areas) and a permanent special status for parts of Donbas.
  • Local elections would be held according to international standards and monitored by the OSCE.
  • Create groups to help implement all parts of the agreements.

Reactions and Challenges to Minsk II

Many people thought Minsk II was very complicated and fragile, much like Minsk I.

Even after the ceasefire officially started, fighting continued in some areas, especially around Debaltseve. Ukrainian forces eventually had to retreat from Debaltseve.

Both sides had different ideas about what the agreement meant. For example, Russia said it was not a "participant" in the conflict, but a "mediator," which made it harder to hold them accountable for some actions.

Ukraine's parliament passed a law on "special status" for Donbas, but Russia and the self-proclaimed regions criticized it, saying it didn't follow the agreement.

The agreement called for local elections, but there were many disagreements about how and when they should happen. The self-proclaimed regions tried to hold their own elections, which Ukraine and the OSCE said were illegal. These elections were postponed many times.

Did Minsk II Work?

While Minsk II did lead to a general decrease in fighting for a while, it never fully stopped. Sadly, many soldiers and civilians continued to lose their lives. By 2018, it was clear that not a single part of the Minsk II agreement had been fully put into action.

The Steinmeier Formula and the Final Breakdown (2016-2022)

As the years went by, and the Minsk agreements remained unfulfilled, new ideas were proposed to try and make them work.

The Steinmeier Formula (2016) was a proposal, named after the German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, that suggested a way to move forward with the "special status" and elections parts of Minsk II. It said that the special status for the eastern regions would only become permanent after the OSCE confirmed that local elections there were fair and followed international standards. In 2019, Ukraine agreed to the Steinmeier Formula, but its President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, made it clear that special status would only be possible after Ukraine regained control of its eastern borders. Even with this new formula, disagreements continued, especially about when Russian-backed troops would withdraw and how elections would be held.

The End of the Agreements (2022)

Throughout 2021 and early 2022, tensions between Russia and Ukraine grew very high. On February 21, 2022, Russia officially recognized the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR as independent states. The very next day, on February 22, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that the Minsk agreements "no longer existed." He blamed Ukraine for their collapse.

Just two days later, on February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale land offensive of Ukraine. This marked the complete breakdown of the Minsk agreements and the start of a much larger conflict.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in August 2022 that there would be no "Minsk-3" or similar agreements. He said that such agreements had been a "trap" that led to Ukraine losing parts of its territory. Some former Ukrainian officials also later said that Ukraine never actually planned to fully carry out the terms of Minsk II.

Evaluation

The Minsk agreements were a huge effort to bring peace, but they ultimately failed. Why was that?

  • One big reason was that Ukraine and Russia had very different goals. Russia, according to many experts, wanted to establish governments in Donbas that would allow it to interfere in Ukrainian politics. Ukraine, on the other hand, wanted to restore its full control over its territory and protect its independence.
  • Russia insisted it was a "mediator" (someone helping to solve a problem) and not a "participant" (someone involved in the problem itself). This made it difficult for Ukraine to negotiate directly with the self-proclaimed regions, as Ukraine considered them to be controlled by Russia.
  • There was a deep lack of trust between the different parties, making it hard to believe that promises would be kept.

The Minsk agreements represent a complex chapter in international diplomacy, showing how challenging it can be to achieve lasting peace when there are deep disagreements and different intentions among the parties involved.

Timeline of Key Events

  • February 2014: Russia takes control of Crimea; unrest begins in eastern Ukraine.
  • September 5, 2014: The Minsk Protocol (Minsk I) is signed, aiming for a ceasefire and peace plan.
  • September 19, 2014: A follow-up memorandum to Minsk I is signed to clarify details.
  • January 2015: Minsk I ceasefire completely collapses; heavy fighting resumes.
  • February 12, 2015: The Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements (Minsk II) is signed, a new attempt at peace.
  • 2016: The Steinmeier Formula is introduced as a way to help implement Minsk II.
  • 2019: Ukraine agrees to the Steinmeier Formula with conditions.
  • February 21, 2022: Russia officially recognizes the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.
  • February 22, 2022: Russian President Vladimir Putin declares the Minsk agreements "no longer existed."
  • February 24, 2022: Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
  • August 24, 2022: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy states there will be no more "Minsk" agreements.
  • 2024: Former officials make statements about the intentions behind the agreements.
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