Climate change in New Zealand facts for kids
Climate change in New Zealand is about how New Zealand's weather and environment are changing, and what New Zealand is doing about it. Summers are getting longer and hotter. Some of New Zealand's glaciers have melted away, and others are shrinking fast.
New Zealand doesn't produce a huge amount of the world's total greenhouse gases. In 2021, it was only about 0.17% of the world's total. However, if you look at how much each person produces, New Zealand is one of the higher emitters, especially compared to other developed countries.
Nearly half of New Zealand's greenhouse gases come from farming. This is mainly methane from sheep and cows when they burp. Between 1990 and 2021, New Zealand's total emissions went up by 19%. If you also count how much carbon dioxide forests soak up, the net emissions (total emissions minus what forests remove) increased by 25% since 1990.
People and the New Zealand Government are working in many ways to respond to climate change. This includes joining international agreements and discussing climate change in politics. New Zealand has a special system called an emissions trading scheme. In 2019, the government also passed the Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Bill. This law created a Climate Change Commission to give advice on how to reduce emissions.
In 2019, New Zealand made several promises to fight climate change. These included aiming for zero net carbon emissions by 2050. They also promised to plant 1 billion trees by 2028. Farmers were also planned to be included in an emissions pricing policy by 2025. New Zealand already stopped new offshore oil and gas drilling in 2019. They also decided that climate change issues would be considered in every important government decision. In December 2020, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern declared a climate change emergency. She promised the New Zealand Government would be carbon neutral by 2025. This means government departments will buy only electric or hybrid cars. Government buildings will also need to meet new "green" standards. All 200 coal-fired heaters in public buildings will be removed.
What are Greenhouse Gas Emissions?
Greenhouse gases are gases in the Earth's atmosphere that trap heat. They act like a blanket, keeping our planet warm. But too many of these gases can make the Earth too hot, leading to climate change.
New Zealand has a unique mix of emissions. In 2021, almost half (49%) came from farming. Energy (like transport and electricity) made up 41%. Industry was 6%, and waste was 4%. Compared to many other developed countries, New Zealand's farming emissions are much higher.
Between 1990 and 2016, New Zealand's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions went up by 35.4%. Methane (CH4) increased by 4.4%, and nitrous oxide (N2O) by 27.6%. Overall, the total amount of greenhouse gases increased by 19.6%.
The New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme started in 2010. It was designed to help different parts of the economy reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. It might have slowed the increase a little. However, between 2016 and 2017, New Zealand's total emissions jumped by 2.2%. This meant a 23.1% increase in greenhouse gases between 1990 and 2017.
Carbon Dioxide
New Zealand has been tracking carbon dioxide levels in the air for a long time. This is similar to the famous Keeling Curve measurements. In 1970, a scientist named Charles Keeling asked David Lowe to set up measurements in New Zealand. They chose Baring Head near Wellington. This spot is good for measuring the air in the Southern Hemisphere.
Even though most CO2 comes from the Northern Hemisphere, the levels in New Zealand are similar. The Baring Head records show that CO2 levels rose from 325 parts per million (ppm) in 1972 to over 400 ppm in 2015. This shows a steady increase over the years.
Methane
Scientists also measure methane and nitrous oxide at Baring Head. More than 80% of methane emissions in New Zealand come from farm animals like sheep and cows. They produce methane when they digest their food. This is very different from other countries, where methane often comes from rice fields or wetlands.
Methane is a very strong greenhouse gas. It traps heat 28 times more effectively than carbon dioxide. A dairy cow can produce a lot of methane each year. Because New Zealand has many farm animals, these emissions are a big deal. In 1997, New Zealand's methane emissions per person were almost six times the average for developed countries. This means New Zealand has one of the highest methane emission rates per person in the world.
The government and research groups are working to find ways to reduce these emissions. For example, in 2019, funding was given to study a red seaweed called Asparagopsis armata. Adding a small amount of this seaweed to animal food could reduce methane emissions by up to 80%.
Nitrous Oxide
Nitrous oxide mainly comes from farming, but also from factories and burning fossil fuels. Over 100 years, it is 298 times better at trapping heat than CO2. In New Zealand in 2018, most (92.5%) of nitrous oxide came from farm soils. This is mainly from animal waste. Overall, nitrous oxide emissions went up by 54% from 1990 to 2018.
Farming and Food Processing
Farming is responsible for half of all emissions in New Zealand. However, it makes up less than 7% of the country's total economy. While some farm types have slightly reduced emissions, dairy farming has grown rapidly. This has led to a big increase in emissions from dairy farms. In fact, dairy emissions have risen 27% in the last decade. They now produce more emissions than manufacturing and electricity combined.
Dairy company Fonterra is responsible for 20% of New Zealand's total greenhouse gas emissions. This is largely because Fonterra uses coal to dry milk into milk powder. Experts say using coal for this is not good, especially when New Zealand's electricity is mostly from clean sources.
Electricity
Most of New Zealand's electricity comes from clean sources like hydroelectricity (power from water). In 2019, 82.4% of the country's electricity came from renewable or low-carbon sources. This included 58.2% from hydroelectricity and 17.4% from geothermal energy.
The Huntly Power Station burns about 300,000 tonnes of coal every year. It is one of the biggest sources of carbon dioxide from electricity generation in New Zealand. There are challenges in closing Huntly, like making sure there's enough power for places like Auckland.
Biggest Polluters
The ten companies that release the most greenhouse gases in New Zealand include Fonterra, Z Energy, Air New Zealand, and Genesis Energy Limited. These companies together release more than two-thirds of New Zealand's total emissions.
Homes and Transport
Most emissions from homes come from New Zealanders driving cars that use petrol. Heating and cooling homes contribute smaller amounts. In 2019, there were fewer than 10,000 electric vehicles on New Zealand roads. Experts suggest a fast switch from petrol cars to electric vehicles (EVs).
New Zealand and Australia are among the few developed countries where emissions from homes are still increasing. A 2019 study said that new homes in New Zealand emit five times more carbon dioxide than they should. This is if the world wants to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius.
Road and Rail Travel
The number of vehicles on New Zealand roads has grown a lot. Because of this, transport emissions have increased by 78% since 1990. They are now the second-largest source of greenhouse gases in the country. Road transport makes up 45% of all emissions from burning fossil fuels. New Zealanders often buy large cars and SUVs. This means our average vehicle CO2 emissions per person are high compared to other developed nations. In fact, New Zealand's transport emissions per person are the fourth highest in the world.
One reason for this is that New Zealand is one of only three countries without rules for how much pollution new cars can make. This means New Zealand can become a place where high-polluting cars from other countries are sold. There hasn't been much reason for people to buy electric or hybrid cars. In May 2019, only 61,000 hybrid vehicles were registered in New Zealand.
However, in July 2019, the government proposed a plan to make low-emission cars cheaper and high-emission cars more expensive. This could reduce the price of new electric vehicles by about $8,000. It would also add $3,000 to the cost of the heaviest petrol-using cars. This plan is expected to remove more than five million tonnes of CO2 from New Zealand's emissions.
Some of New Zealand's railway tracks are electric, especially around Auckland and Wellington. But there are no electric tracks in the South Island.
Air Travel
Emissions from planes in New Zealand are increasing quickly again after a drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. From 1990 to 2019, New Zealand's plane emissions went up by 116%. New Zealand ranks very high globally for plane emissions per person, both for domestic and international flights. This rapid growth is not in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Air New Zealand is one of the country's biggest polluters. It releases over 3.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide each year. This is about 4% of New Zealand's total greenhouse gas emissions. Air New Zealand has a program called FlyNeutral. It lets passengers pay to offset the carbon from their flights. But currently, less than 1.5% of customers use this.
How Climate Change Affects Nature
Temperature and Weather
New Zealand has good records of air temperatures going back to the early 1900s. Scientists combine measurements from seven weather stations to get an average.
According to NIWA (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research), 2022 was New Zealand's warmest year ever recorded. The average temperature was 1.15°C higher than the average from 1981–2010. From 1909 to 2022, the air around New Zealand has warmed by 1.37°C. This record beat 2021, which was also a record warm year.
Temperatures are expected to warm by at least 2°C by the end of this century. Some reports suggest it could be even higher if countries don't cut emissions enough.
Ecosystems
New Zealand's native plants and animals are at risk from climate change. More frequent storms and rising sea levels make it harder for seabirds like the hoiho (yellow-eyed penguin) to find food. Warmer temperatures can lead to more "mast events." This is when forests produce a lot of food suddenly, causing huge increases in mice, rats, and stoats. These pests then put more pressure on native species like the kiwi, which are already struggling.
Warmer temperatures also allow pests and weeds to spread to new areas. New pests and diseases might also appear. Tuatara eggs are sensitive to temperature. Fewer female tuatara will hatch, which threatens the survival of New Zealand's largest reptile.
Research in Wellington shows that climate change, along with fast growth, is affecting plant and animal life. Natural habitats are shrinking, making it harder for some plants to survive. Also, with rising temperatures, more predators and invasive species are appearing. Researchers suggest creating more pest-free urban wildlife sanctuaries. This has worked well on islands in the past. This would help protect important native animals like the kererū and tūī and keep out invasive species. This helps protect New Zealand's unique nature as the climate changes.
Glaciers
New Zealand has over 3,000 glaciers, mostly in the South Island. Since 1977, NIWA has been flying over 50 glaciers each summer. They check the snowline to see how much snow and ice the glaciers have gained or lost.
A NIWA survey in 2009 found that the amount of ice in New Zealand's glaciers had dropped by about 50% in the last century. During this time, New Zealand's average temperature went up by about 1°C.
In 2017, NIWA published new research. It showed that between 1983 and 2008, some New Zealand glaciers actually grew. This was unusual compared to glaciers worldwide, which were shrinking. This growth happened because temperatures dropped due to natural climate changes specific to New Zealand. However, scientists don't expect this to continue. They say that if temperatures rise by 2 to 4 degrees by the end of the century, most of New Zealand's glaciers will disappear.
New Zealand's largest glacier, the Tasman Glacier, has been shrinking by about 180 metres each year since the 1990s. Its lake, Tasman Lake, is growing as the glacier melts. Scientists expect the Tasman Glacier to eventually disappear completely. Between 1990 and 2015, the Tasman Glacier retreated 4.5 kilometres.
Overall, New Zealand's glaciers have lost one-third of their total volume in the last four decades. Some have already vanished. As of 2017, the area covered by glaciers shrank by 31% since the late 1970s. This is a loss of almost 1% per year, and the melting is speeding up. Climate scientist Jim Salinger said this decline will affect skiing and tourism. It will also cause problems for farmers in the South Island.
Sea Level Rise
Rising sea levels are another big impact of climate change. As the Earth warms, glaciers and ice sheets melt, adding water to the oceans. Also, warmer water expands, taking up more space. This causes sea levels to rise around New Zealand's coasts.
Wildfires
Summers are getting longer and hotter in New Zealand. Four of the last six years have been the warmest on record. A fire scientist, Grant Pearce, says the number of days with a high risk of dangerous fires could double by 2050. The Pigeon Valley Fire in Nelson in 2019 was New Zealand's largest forest fire in 60 years. It burned over 2,300 hectares. A review found that wildfires will happen more often because of drier conditions. The risk will increase due to higher temperatures, stronger winds, and less rain. Wildfires can cause health problems, from burns to worsening existing conditions.
How Climate Change Affects People
The impacts of climate change will have many lasting effects on New Zealand. By the end of this century, New Zealand will likely see more rain, more extreme weather, rising sea levels, and higher temperatures. These changes will greatly affect the country. Higher temperatures will lead to dry summers, limiting water supplies and making droughts worse. The Ministry for the Environment says water resources will be most affected. There will be more rain in the west and less in the east. Extreme weather events like droughts could become more common in eastern areas. Also, there could be more flooding after heavy rain.
Higher temperatures might also increase problems like heat stress in summer. More people could get sick because of harsher living conditions. Insects that carry diseases, like mosquitoes, could spread more easily as the climate warms.
Economic Impacts
Droughts and lack of water will not only affect the environment but also New Zealand's economy. The country's farming exports rely heavily on good conditions for growing crops and raising animals. For example, higher temperatures could harm fruit growers in northern areas. Some plants, like kiwifruit, need cold winters. Pests and diseases could spread more easily in warmer conditions. Farmers will face higher costs as they change how they use their land to adapt to the changing climate.
Loss of Insurance
The Insurance Council of New Zealand says that houses and buildings in areas at risk will eventually become impossible to insure. In the Bay of Plenty, some properties are already considered "unliveable" due to severe flood risk. A report for Hutt City Council suggests that large parts of Petone could be underwater before the end of the century. Homeowners in these areas might find their homes uninsurable in as little as 30 years.
Local councils report that over $5 billion worth of local infrastructure is at risk from a one-metre sea level rise. This doesn't include homes, businesses, or government buildings. The total cost for a one-metre rise could be closer to $40 billion, affecting 125,000 buildings. If seas rise between one and two metres, another $26 billion and 70,490 buildings would be at risk. In the worst case, by the end of the century, over 260,000 buildings in coastal areas could be destroyed, costing around $84 billion.
Potential Costs
The money lost due to soil erosion and landslides is already estimated at up to $300 million a year. A scientist named Mike Joy says that in the last 20 years, soil washing into waterways has also badly affected water quality.
In April 2019, Judy Lawrence from Victoria University suggested creating a climate change fund. This would be similar to the Earthquake Commission. It would help pay for adapting to climate change. She said local councils estimate costs of $14 billion, but she thinks the real cost is higher.
Farming
As temperatures rise, more frequent and severe water problems, like droughts and floods, will affect farming. Rising temperatures will also mean farms need more water. Globally, crop yields are predicted to drop by 20% by 2050 due to water shortages and dry regions. Food prices are likely to go up a lot. This will make it harder for people to buy food.
Impacts on Māori
A 2017 report found that Māori are among the groups most at risk from climate change in New Zealand. This is because they rely a lot on the environment for their culture, community, and economy. Many Māori communities are near the coast. The report says that urupā (burial grounds) and marae (meeting places) are already being flooded or washed into the sea.
Mike Smith, a Māori leader, says the government is not doing enough to protect Māori from the "catastrophic effects of climate change." He has taken legal action on behalf of future generations of Māori children.
Impacts on Migration
If the atmosphere warms by two degrees Celsius, small island countries in the Pacific will be flooded by rising sea levels. These islands don't have the people or money to deal with weather disasters. Currently, 180,000 people in low-lying islands like Kiribati and Tuvalu are most at risk. Some predictions suggest that by 2050, 75 million people from the wider Asia-Pacific region could be forced to move.
Pacific islanders who have to move will be more likely to have mental health problems. This is because they lose their homes, their culture, and face the stress of moving due to climate change. The New Zealand Defence Force expects to do more humanitarian and disaster relief work in the Pacific because of climate change.
Policies and Laws
International Agreements
UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol
New Zealand signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1993. This agreement brought countries together to talk about how to deal with climate change. It recognized that climate change is a serious threat and that human actions need to be reduced. The agreement also said that developed countries should lead the way in fighting climate change.
New Zealand also signed the Kyoto Protocol in 2002. This Protocol understood that countries have different abilities to fight climate change based on their economic development.
During the first period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012), New Zealand aimed to keep its emissions at 1990 levels. However, New Zealand actually emitted more greenhouse gases than its 1990 level during this time.
Paris Climate Agreement
The 2015 Paris Agreement is the new international agreement after the Kyoto Protocol. It aims to keep global temperature rises below two degrees Celsius this century, hoping to limit it to 1.5 degrees. The Paris Agreement started in 2020.
The main difference is that the Kyoto Protocol set specific goals for each country. The Paris Agreement lets each country decide its own goals, called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Countries are expected to meet these goals, but there isn't a strict rule for how they must do it. The Paris Agreement also offers financial help to countries to reach their goals.
In 2015, New Zealand set its first target under the Paris Agreement: to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. In 2021, the government announced a more ambitious target: a 50% reduction of net emissions below 2005 levels by 2030.
Actions at Home
Emissions Trading Scheme
New Zealand has an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). This scheme aims to put a price on greenhouse gas emissions. It gives businesses "emission units" that they can trade. The idea is that if it costs money to pollute, businesses will try to reduce their emissions.
However, the scheme has faced criticism. Some say it hasn't been effective enough at reducing emissions. For example, some industries have received free emission units, which means they don't have to pay for all their pollution. This can reduce the incentive to cut emissions.
Offshore Oil and Gas Permits
In 2018, the government stopped issuing new offshore oil and gas exploration permits. They only allowed onshore permits in the Taranaki region. Taranaki is the only region in New Zealand that produces oil and gas.
This decision does not affect existing permits. The Energy Minister said this will lead to a gradual shift away from oil and gas production over the next 30 years.
Tree Planting
The government has a goal to plant one billion trees within ten years (by 2028). Trees absorb carbon dioxide from the air, which can help New Zealand become carbon neutral. In 2015, New Zealand forests held 283 million tonnes of carbon.
Money has been set aside to help landowners plant new trees. The plan also encourages farmers and Māori landowners to plant trees on their land. However, there have been challenges finding enough workers for planting.
Some scientists and environmentalists have criticized the plan. They point out that only a small percentage of the trees planted are native species. Pine forests, which are often planted, store less carbon than native forests because they are harvested after a few decades. The carbon then goes back into the atmosphere. Natural native forests store much more carbon than pine plantations. A report in 2018 also found that the one billion tree plan is only a small part of what is needed to offset New Zealand's carbon emissions. It suggested that the planting rate needs to double and the program needs to be longer.
Zero Carbon Act
In 2019, the government passed the Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Act. This law sets a goal for New Zealand to have net zero carbon emissions (except for some methane from farming) by 2050. The law also created an independent Climate Change Commission. This commission advises the government on how to reduce emissions and sets five-year emission budgets. The Act has a separate target for methane from farming: a 10% reduction by 2030 and a provisional reduction of 24–47% by 2050.
Some groups have criticized the law because the targets are voluntary and don't have strong ways to make sure they are met. Independent scientific analysis has rated New Zealand's emissions targets as "insufficient." This means they are not enough to keep global warming below 2°C, let alone the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement.
Climate Emergency Declarations
As of January 2020, over 1,300 local governments around the world had declared climate emergencies. This means different things in different places. But it often includes a promise to become carbon neutral quickly and to limit global warming to below 1.5°C.
New Zealand City Councils
Several New Zealand city councils have declared a climate emergency. These include Nelson, Environment Canterbury, Kapiti, Auckland, Wellington, Dunedin, Hutt Valley, Hawkes Bay Regional Council, and Whangarei.
When Auckland declared its emergency, Mayor Phil Goff said it was important to act now to prevent a world damaged by global heating. He said scientists believe we only have about 12 years to reduce global carbon emissions to limit temperature rises to 1.5 degrees. The Auckland declaration also means that council committees must include a climate change impact statement in their reports. This helps keep everyone focused on the issue.
Public Opinion
A poll in June 2019 found that most New Zealanders (53%) believe the government should declare a climate emergency. More than 50 of the country's top researchers have also asked New Zealand politicians to declare a climate emergency. They said the world is facing a huge environmental and climate disaster. They urged the government to declare an emergency now.
Some people, like National MP Paula Bennett, have argued against declaring a climate emergency. She said such declarations should only be used for very serious events like earthquakes. She believes calling it an emergency means putting it above all else, which she thinks is not right for a long-term issue.
Society and Culture
Activism
In March 2019, inspired by Greta Thunberg, thousands of school students protested across New Zealand. They called for action on climate change. For many young people, it was their first time getting involved in politics. News articles noted that many decision-makers today won't experience the full impact of climate change. But today's students will. Some teenagers are even wondering if they will have a healthy planet to live on.
A survey in July 2019 showed that New Zealanders aged 10 to 19 rated climate change as the most important issue. Concern about climate change generally decreased with age. In July, youth MPs at the 2019 Youth Parliament also declared a climate change emergency.
Media and Public Opinion
Organizations like The Climate Reality Project, founded by Al Gore, train people to talk about climate change. They encourage using terms like 'climate emergency' and 'climate crisis' instead of 'climate change'. Some newspapers, like The Guardian, have also decided to use these stronger terms.
The New Zealand news website Stuff has a special section called Quick! Save the Planet for climate stories. They state that they accept the scientific agreement that climate change is real and caused by humans. They welcome discussion but will not publish denial or hoax claims.
Surveys on public attitudes show a big change in concern about climate change between 2007 and 2019. The percentage of people who see it as an urgent problem jumped from 8% to 43%. The number who see it as a problem happening now went up from 16% to 26%.
| Year | 2007 | 2019 |
| An urgent and immediate problem | 08% | 43% |
| A problem now | 16% | 26% |
| A problem for the future | 37% | 13% |
| Not really a problem | 37% | 11% |
| Don't know | 02% | 08% |
In 2014, a survey of 2200 New Zealanders found that at least 87% were "somewhat concerned" about the effects of climate change on society.
Images for kids
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New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2019.
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New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions, projected and actual, from 1990 to 2030.
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Köppen climate map for New Zealand (1980–2016).
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Köppen climate map for New Zealand (2071–2100) under the most intense climate change scenario.
