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Hurricane Otis
Otis 2023-10-25 0300Z.jpg
Otis near peak intensity off the coast of Guerrero early on October 25
Meteorological history
Formed October 22, 2023
Dissipated October 25, 2023
Category 5 tropical cyclone
1-minute sustained (SSHWS/NWS)
Highest winds 165 mph (270 km/h)
Lowest pressure 923 mbar (hPa); 27.26 inHg
Overall effects
Fatalities ≥43 confirmed
Missing ≥10
Damage Unknown
Areas affected Southern Mexico

Part of the 2023 Pacific hurricane season

Hurricane Otis was a compact yet devastating tropical cyclone which made landfall in October 2023 near Acapulco as a Category 5 hurricane. Otis was the first Pacific hurricane to make landfall at Category 5 intensity and surpassed Hurricane Patricia as the strongest landfalling Pacific hurricane on record. The fifteenth tropical storm, tenth hurricane, eighth major hurricane, and second Category 5 hurricane of the 2023 Pacific hurricane season, Otis originated from a disturbance several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Initially forecast to only be a weak tropical storm at peak intensity, Otis instead underwent explosive intensification to reach peak winds of 165 mph (270 km/h) and made landfall at peak intensity. Once inland, the hurricane rapidly weakened before dissipating the following day.

Making landfall just west of Acapulco, Otis's powerful winds severely damaged many of the buildings in the city. Landslides occurred, and flooding resulted from heavy rain. Communication was heavily cut off, initially leaving information about the hurricane's impact largely unknown. Many radio stations were also damaged. In the aftermath, the city had no drinking water and many residents also lost power. The government of Guerrero mobilized thousands of military members to aid survivors and assist in recovery efforts. The hurricane caused at least 43 deaths and left at least 10 missing.

Forecast errors

Otis 2023 landfall
Enhanced infrared imagery of Otis making landfall near Acapulco, Guerrero, on October 25

Otis's peak intensity and final track were well beyond what had been forecast by the NHC. When the tropical cyclone formed, three days before its landfall, the track forecast did not show Otis coming ashore, rather curving to the west as a weak tropical storm. Late on October 23, just 24 hours before the hurricane reached Category 5 intensity, the NHC forecast a peak intensity of only 70 mph (110 km/h). The forecast track had shifted to showing Otis making landfall, but even only 16 hours before landfall, the NHC predicted that Otis would peak as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph (150 km/h) winds. This forecast also had Otis making landfall between 6:00 am and 6:00 pm local time (12:00 UTC and 00:00 UTC the following day) on October 25, nearly a day after it would actually come inland. Numerical weather prediction models failed to capture the magnitude of explosive intensification that occurred, in part due to a dearth of data. Only a single Hurricane Hunters flight was flown and there is no Doppler weather radar in the landfall area. Some model runs did not even predict landfall at all. Several experts, including director of the National Hurricane Center Michael Brennan, noted that there are very few instruments—such as ocean buoys or radar—available evaluating hurricane strength in the East Pacific, leaving forecasters reliant on satellite data.

Impact

Hurricane Otis made landfall in Acapulco as a Category 5 hurricane on October 25, making it by far the strongest hurricane to ever strike this area of Mexico. A weather station on Isla de La Roqueta [es] offshore western Acapulco recorded a maximum wind gust of 135 mph (217 km/h) as the eyewall moved across the city. Peak sustained winds of 81 mph (130 km/h) were also reported by the station. Across Guerrero, 37 transmission lines, 26 electrical substations, a power generation plant, and 10,000 light poles were downed, resulting in more than 500,000 households losing power, although service was quickly restored to 200,000. Statewide, 220,305 homes were damaged. Losses were estimated at US$15 billion by the natural disaster risk analysis firm Enki Research, and at more than US$10 billion by global reinsurance firm Gallagher Re., meaning Otis possibly exceeds Hurricane Wilma as Mexico's most expensive weather disaster ever recorded at US$7.5 billion. Tourism authorities considered Otis the worst hurricane to hit Acapulco, with its impact more severe than both Hurricane Pauline and Hurricane Manuel.

About 80% of all hotels in Acapulco sustained damage, including reports of flooding and collapsed ceilings inside hotels. Several buildings were also heavily damaged or collapsed. Eighteen radio stations in Acapulco were downed, and communication was cut off in the city. The city also lost access to drinking water. A shopping center in Acapulco was destroyed, and a section of a highway leading into the city was closed after a landslide. Authorities reported that over 220,000 homes in the municipality had suffered some degree of damage. Further inland, ten road accidents occured in the Toluca Valley in the state of Mexico, resulting in two deaths.

Several airlines were impacted by Otis, with service on Aeroméxico, Volaris, and Viva Aerobus affected and suspended at Acapulco and Zihuatanejo. Acapulco International Airport, which was closed to all flights, was inaccessible. Additionally, the Pie de la Cuesta Air Force Base near Acapulco was damaged, which made it difficult for rescue operations. Otis's passage knocked offline a significant part of the seismic network in Guerrero owned by SkyAlert, an earthquake warning app used widely in Mexico, as well as the SASMEX Network, another network owned by CIRES, responsible of broadcasting alerts through public speakers and radio signals. Twenty-seven sensors were affected throughout Guerrero and parts of neighboring states Michoacán and Oaxaca, as well as two broadcast towers in the cities of Acapulco and Chilpancingo, hindering the ability to notify major cities both close and farther away prone to damage in case an earthquake occurs along the coasts of those three states. By September 28, 19 of the sensors had been restored.

See also

Kids robot.svg In Spanish: Huracán Otis para niños

  • Weather of 2023
  • Tropical cyclones in 2023
  • List of Category 5 Pacific hurricanes
  • Hurricane Bridget (1971) – a Category 2 hurricane which is considered to be one of the worst hurricanes to hit Acapulco.
  • Hurricane Pauline (1997) – a Category 4 hurricane that severely impacted Acapulco.
  • Hurricane Manuel (2013) – a destructive Category 1 hurricane which became the costliest Pacific hurricane on record after causing widespread damage in Acapulco and its surrounding areas.
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