Agustín Maravall facts for kids
Quick facts for kids
Agustín Maravall
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| Born | 1944 (age 80–81) |
| Nationality | Spanish |
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| Scientific career | |
| Fields | Economics |
Agustín Maravall Herrero (born in 1944 in Madrid) is a famous Spanish economist. He is known for his important work with statistics and econometrics. These are ways to study and understand economic data.
He is especially good at something called seasonal adjustment. This helps to remove regular ups and downs in data, like when sales go up every Christmas. This way, you can see the real trends. He also helps find hidden patterns, or signals, in economic data over time.
Agustín Maravall created special ways and computer programs to do this kind of analysis. These tools are used all over the world by experts who study data. He retired from the Bank of Spain in December 2014.
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About His Life
Agustín Maravall spent his early years in Paris, France. Later, he moved to Madrid, Spain, where he finished high school. He then earned a special degree in agricultural engineering from the Technical University of Madrid. For several years, he worked at the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture.
He received a special scholarship, called a Fulbright-Ford fellowship. This allowed him to study in the United States. He earned a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Wisconsin–Madison. In 1975, he moved to Washington, D.C.. There, he worked as an economist for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. This is like the central bank of the United States.
In 1979, he returned to Madrid. He became a senior economist at the Bank of Spain, which is Spain's central bank. In 1989, he moved to Italy. He became a full professor at the European University Institute in Florence. Then, in 1996, he came back to the Bank of Spain. He worked as the Chief Economist and led the team that analyzes data over time.
Maravall has also been part of the team that reviews articles for many important journals. These include the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. He also helped plan many international meetings and conferences. He has taught courses in more than 30 countries. People from over 60 countries have learned from him. He was also a special advisor to the European Central Bank and Eurostat. These are important organizations in Europe.
His Research Work
Agustín Maravall's research mainly focused on time series analysis. This is about studying data that changes over time, like stock prices or unemployment rates. He looked at how to create models for this data. He also found ways to use these models for real economic information.
His most important work was with Victor Gómez. Together, they created a new way to solve many problems with economic time series data. This method helps to understand and explain what the data means.
Here's how it works:
- First, the method automatically finds patterns in the data. It can even handle missing information.
- Then, it splits the data into different parts. These parts can include seasonal changes (like holiday shopping). They also include long-term trends (like overall economic growth).
- This method helps to estimate and predict these different parts. It also shows how accurate these predictions are.
Two great things about his method are:
- All the estimates for a set of data come from the same model. This means they are always consistent and make sense together.
- The method is automatic. This makes it very efficient and reliable. It can be used for huge amounts of data.
His research has been published in many academic journals. Some of his work has also been reprinted in books. He has also published books with Springer-Verlag and the Bank of Spain.
Computer Programs and Seasonal Adjustment
Agustín Maravall worked with Víctor Gómez and Gianluca Caporello. They turned his research into several computer programs. These programs are called TRAMO and SEATS. TRAMO stands for "Time series Regression with ARIMA noise, Missing values, and Outliers." SEATS means "Signal Extraction in ARIMA Time Series." They also made TSW, which is "Tramo and Seats for Windows."
There's also an extension of TRAMO called TERROR. This program helps find possible errors in large sets of data. It's used to make sure the data is correct.
These programs are used all over the world for many different things. A very important use is for seasonal adjustment. This is when official groups remove seasonal patterns from data. This helps people see the true economic picture.
For example, the United States Census Bureau uses a program called X13-ARIMA-SEATS. This program includes parts of Maravall's TRAMO and SEATS methods. Also, countries in Europe use a program called JDEMETRA+. This program also uses TRAMO-SEATS. You can get TRAMO and SEATS for free from the Bank of Spain. They are also part of other statistics software.
Awards and Honors
Agustín Maravall has received many awards and honors for his work:
- He was a Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation Fellow (1973–75).
- He was a Fulbright-Ford Fellow (1971–73).
- He was a Phi Kappa Phi Honor Society Fellow (1975).
- He was named Oficial de la Orden Civil del Mérito Agrario (1971).
- He became an elected member of the International Statistical Institute (1988).
- He was named a Fellow of the Journal of Econometrics in 1995.
- He became a Fellow of the American Statistical Association in 2000.
In 2004, he received the Julius Shiskin Award for Economic Statistics. This award is given for important work in economic statistics. In 2005, he won the Rey Jaime I Prize in Economics. This is a very important award in Spain. In 2006, he received the First Galicia Prize in Statistics. In 2014, he won the King Juan Carlos Prize in Economics. The King of Spain presented this award to him.
In March 2014, the Bank of Spain held a special event. It was called "Celebrating 25 years of TRAMO-SEATS and the 70th birthday of Agustín Maravall." Many researchers from different countries attended to honor his work.
See also
In Spanish: Agustín Maravall para niños
