As Maine goes, so goes the nation facts for kids

"As Maine goes, so goes the nation" was once a famous saying in United States politics. This phrase meant that Maine was like a bellwether state. A bellwether state is one that shows how the rest of the country will vote in presidential elections.

From 1820 to 1932, Maine's September election for its governor often predicted the winner of the November presidential election. This happened in 23 out of 29 election years. Maine usually voted for the Republican Party. So, it wasn't just about which party won in Maine. It was about how close the election was. If Republicans won by a smaller amount than expected, it often meant good results for the Democrats across the country.

What "As Maine Goes" Meant

Maine's reputation as a predictor started in 1840. That year, Edward Kent from the Whig Party became governor. Two months later, the Whig presidential candidate, William Henry Harrison, won the presidential election.

How the Saying Started

The saying became popular after the 1888 election. Maine voted strongly for Republican candidates. Republican Benjamin Harrison then won the presidency. He won even though he lost the total popular vote nationwide. The exact person who first said the phrase is not known.

Why Maine Was Special

When Maine became a state in 1820, it separated from Massachusetts. Maine held its statewide and congressional elections in September. Most other states voted in November. This was because of Maine's cold November weather and early harvest. However, Maine's presidential elections were still held in November.

During this time, Maine was a very reliable Republican state. But the size of the Republican win was important. A close election in Maine in September often meant good results for Democrats in the rest of the country in November. A big Republican win in Maine suggested a good year for Republicans nationally.

Because of this, national political parties worked hard to win Maine's early elections. This was true even though Maine had a small population. It only had two seats in the House of Representatives. It also had four electoral votes in the November presidential elections. Maine was also quite far away in the northeast of the United States.

When Maine Stopped Predicting

In 1936, Maine elected Republican governor Lewis O. Barrows. It also elected a mostly Republican state legislature. And it sent an all-Republican congressional delegation to Washington. Republicans saw these wins in Maine as a sign. They predicted a national trend and a big win for their party.

The Big Election of 1936

However, that November, something surprising happened. Republican candidate Alf Landon ran against President Franklin D. Roosevelt. Only Maine and Vermont voted for Landon in the 1936 presidential election. Landon only got eight electoral votes (five from Maine, three from Vermont). Roosevelt won by a huge amount. This big loss for Landon showed that the saying "As Maine goes, so goes the nation" was no longer true. Landon even lost his home state of Kansas.

Maine and Vermont: A New Saying

After the 1936 election, James Farley was a top Democratic planner for Roosevelt's campaign. He joked, "As Maine goes, so goes Vermont."

Since the Republican Party started in 1854, Maine and Vermont have voted for different presidential candidates only twice. In 1912, former Republican president Theodore Roosevelt ran as a third-party candidate. This split the Republican vote with President William Howard Taft. This allowed Democrat Woodrow Wilson to win Maine with only 39% of the vote. Later, in 1968, Senator Edmund Muskie from Maine was the vice-presidential candidate for the Democrats. He helped his party win Maine.

For a long time, Vermont was a strong Republican state. It only voted Democratic once, in Lyndon B. Johnson's big win in 1964. Both Maine and Vermont started voting reliably Democratic in 1992. They have not voted Republican in a presidential election since then.

Maine's Elections Change

After the 1936 election, the saying was not very accurate. From 1940 to 1956, only one of five presidential elections matched Maine's September gubernatorial election winner. This happened in 1952. Republican Burton M. Cross became governor, and Dwight D. Eisenhower was elected president.

In 1959, Maine changed its election laws. It started holding all general elections in November. Since 1960, Maine has voted at the same time as most other states.

See Also

In Spanish: Donde va Maine, también va la nación para niños