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Rasmussen Reports, LLC

Founded	2003 (2003)
Founder	Scott Rasmussen
Headquarters	Asbury Park, New Jersey , United States
Key people	Ted Carrol (Noson Lawen Partners) Fran Coombs (managing editor) Amy Holmes (spokeswoman)
Products	Political commentary, opinion polling
Owner	Noson Lawen Partners (majority investor)

Rasmussen Reports is an American company that conducts polls. It was started in 2003. The company shares its thoughts on politics and collects information about what people think. They publish these public opinion polls.

Rasmussen Reports checks opinions every night. They look at elections, politics, and current events. They also track how confident people feel about the economy. This includes how people feel about the U.S. president's job performance. The company uses recorded phone calls and online surveys to gather information. They earn money by selling ads and subscriptions to their poll data.

For the 2020 United States presidential election, Rasmussen Reports' final poll showed Joe Biden ahead by 1%. They said the race was "a near tie." Joe Biden won the election by 4.5 percentage points. In 2018, Rasmussen Reports predicted Republicans would win by 1%. But Democrats actually won by almost 9 percentage points. This was a large error compared to other major polling groups.

How Rasmussen Reports Started

Rasmussen Reports was founded in 2003 by Scott Rasmussen. He was the company's president until July 2013. Then, he left to start another company called Styrk.

Scott Rasmussen started his first polling company in 1994. That company was called Rasmussen Research. It was later bought by TownPagesNet.com in 1999. From 1999, Rasmussen's polls were known as Portrait of America. In 2003, he started Rasmussen Reports in Asbury Park, New Jersey. In 2009, The Washington Post reported that Rasmussen Reports received a "major investment." The company then hired more staff that same year.

How the Company Works

Rasmussen Reports collects and shares information about what people think. They track politics, current events, and how confident consumers feel. They also check the president's job approval ratings. Rasmussen Reports does national polls every night. They also do state surveys on a schedule. The company provides political analysis through a daily email newsletter. In 2012, Rasmussen Reports launched a TV show called What America Thinks With Scott Rasmussen.

For polls like the daily Presidential Tracking Poll, Rasmussen uses automated technology. This technology calls phone numbers chosen randomly. This helps make sure different areas are included. To reach people who do not have landlines, they use an online survey tool. This tool interviews people chosen randomly from a diverse group. Some people believe these types of polls can be less accurate. Rasmussen's automated surveys are done by Pulse Opinion Research. This company uses methods developed by Scott Rasmussen. Rasmussen Reports makes money by selling ads and subscriptions.

What Rasmussen Reports Polls About

Political Opinions

Tracking the President's Approval

Rasmussen Reports has a daily poll that measures how people approve of the president's job. Rasmussen Reports explains that their approval ratings are based on a group of likely voters. Other companies might base their ratings on all adults. For example, President Obama's numbers were often higher when polling all adults. This is because some of his supporters, like young adults, are less likely to vote. Newsweek also noted that polls of all adults often show better results for Democrats.

In March 2009, a Rasmussen Reports poll was the first to show President Barack Obama's approval rating going down. Scott Rasmussen wrote in The Wall Street Journal that Obama's approval rating was lower than George W. Bush's at a similar time in 2001. Rasmussen Reports' data showed Obama's approval rating was at its lowest point then.

Rasmussen polls are sometimes seen as different from others. This is because they often show higher approval ratings for Donald Trump.

Generic Congressional Ballot

Every week, Rasmussen Reports updates a poll called the Generic Congressional Ballot. This poll tracks what percentage of likely voters would choose a Republican or a Democrat. This is for congressional races if an election were held today. In 2009, Rasmussen Reports was the first to show Democrats falling behind. This was for the 2010 midterm elections.

Healthcare Reform Views

Starting in 2009, Rasmussen Reports tracked opinions on healthcare reform. Since the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act became law in 2010, Rasmussen Reports consistently found strong support for repealing the law. This was shown in many polls from 2010 to 2012. Likely voters favored repealing the law by an average of 16 percentage points during that time.

Political Class vs. Mainstream Index

Rasmussen Reports also looks at the difference between "Mainstream Voters" and the "Political Class." According to The Wall Street Journal, Rasmussen asks three questions to figure this out:

Whose judgment do you trust more: the American people or America's political leaders?
Has the federal government become its own special interest group?
Do government and big business often work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors?

People who agree with the government on two or more questions are called the "political class."

Elections

Presidential Elections

2000 Election

In the 2000 presidential election, Scott Rasmussen polled under the name Portrait of America. This was before Rasmussen Reports. Their prediction for the 2000 election was off by 4.5%. Most other national polls were off by about 1.1%.

2004 Election

In the 2004 presidential election, Rasmussen "beat most of their human competitors," according to Slate magazine. Rasmussen's predictions for the 2004 election were within one percentage point of the actual votes. This was true for both George W. Bush and John Kerry.

2008 Election

According to Politico, Rasmussen's final poll for the 2008 election was very close to the actual result. It showed Obama winning by 52% to 46%. An analysis in 2009 ranked Rasmussen Reports as one of the most accurate pollsters for that election.

Rasmussen Reports correctly predicted the winner in 46 states. However, their final polls for Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina showed John McCain leading. Obama actually won all three of those states. Their poll for Ohio showed a tied race, but Obama won that state by 4 percentage points.

2012 Election

Rasmussen Reports' final prediction for the 2012 Electoral College showed 237 safe votes for Barack Obama and 206 for Mitt Romney. There were also eight states that could go either way. The final Rasmussen Reports poll showed Mitt Romney with a small lead. Obama won the election by almost 4 percentage points.

A study by Fordham University compared pre-election polls to the actual results. This study ranked Rasmussen Reports 24th out of 28 polls for accuracy. An analysis by Nate Silver also ranked Rasmussen low for accuracy in 2012. After the election, some conservative news outlets used Rasmussen's polls to suggest Romney had a good chance to win.

Scott Rasmussen said that the 2012 election was likely the last presidential election where phone polling would be the main method. He believed new techniques would be needed for 2016.

2016 Election

Rasmussen Reports’ final poll for 2016 showed Hillary Clinton with a 1.7% lead in the popular vote. After all votes were counted, Clinton led by 2.1%. A study from Fordham University looked at poll accuracy but did not include Rasmussen Reports' results for 2016.

2020 Election

For the 2020 United States presidential election, Rasmussen Reports' final poll showed Joe Biden with a 1% lead over Donald Trump. They said the two were "in a near tie." Biden ultimately won the election by 4.5 percentage points.

Congressional and Governor Elections

In the 2009 New Jersey governor's race, Rasmussen Reports predicted Chris Christie would win by 3 points. Christie won by 4.3 points. In 2009, Alan Abramowitz wrote that if Rasmussen's data was correct, Republicans would gain 62 seats in the House in the 2010 midterm elections. Rasmussen himself believed Republicans would gain at least 55 House seats and 48 or 49 Senate seats. Republicans gained 63 House seats and 47 Senate seats.

In 2010, Rasmussen Reports was the first to show that Republican Scott Brown had a chance to beat Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate race. This poll changed how people viewed the race. A study by Boston University found that this Rasmussen poll "signaled that a possible upset was brewing." However, Rasmussen's polls still showed Coakley with a lead, including the final poll. She actually lost by five points.

According to Nate Silver, Rasmussen's polls for Senate and governor races in 2010 were off by an average of 5.8 points. Silver said Rasmussen was "biased and inaccurate." He noted a bias toward Republican candidates.

2018 Election

In 2018, Rasmussen Reports predicted Republicans would win the generic ballot by 1 percentage point. But Democrats won by almost 9 percentage points. This was the largest polling error among major firms. Rasmussen said that the "midterm result was relatively poor for Democrats."

2022 Election

Four months after the 2022 Arizona governor election, Rasmussen said there was a 92% voter turnout and an 8-point victory for Kari Lake. Lake lost the election and tried to challenge the results. Rasmussen based their conclusion on polling 1,001 people in Arizona. Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports’ lead pollster, said the poll suggested election "irregularities and cheating."

Business Topics

Rasmussen Reports also provides daily updates on how confident consumers and investors feel. The general trends are similar to other measures, but Rasmussen's is updated daily. The company also releases a monthly Employment Index, a Consumer Spending Index, a Small Business Watch, and a Financial Security Index.

How Accurate Are Rasmussen's Polls?

The accuracy of Rasmussen's polling has changed a lot in recent U.S. presidential elections. Some experts, like Patrick Caddell, have praised Rasmussen Reports. Others, like Chris Cillizza, have questioned how accurate they are. FiveThirtyEight gave the company an overall rating of "B." They also noted a small bias of 1.5 points in favor of the Republican Party.

Positive Views

Caddell and Doug Schoen wrote in 2010 that Rasmussen has a strong record for being honest and accurate. Slate magazine and The Wall Street Journal reported that Rasmussen Reports was one of the most accurate polling firms for the 2004 U.S. presidential election and 2006 U.S. general elections. In 2004, Slate had doubts about Rasmussen's use of recorded voices in polls. But after the election, they agreed that Rasmussen's polls were very accurate. According to Politico, Rasmussen's 2008 presidential election polls were "closely mirrored the election's outcome."

At the end of the 2008 presidential election, there were many national tracking polls. Polling expert Nate Silver reviewed these polls. He said that while Rasmussen was "frequently reputed to have a Republican lean," their tracking poll's bias was small. He added that with its large sample size, it would be the one he would choose. However, in 2010, Silver concluded that Rasmussen was the least accurate of the major pollsters. He believed this was due to the way Rasmussen conducted its polls.