Rasmussen Reports facts for kids
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| Founded | 2003 |
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| Founder | Scott Rasmussen |
| Headquarters |
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United States
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Key people
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Ted Carrol (Noson Lawen Partners) Fran Coombs (managing editor) Amy Holmes (spokeswoman) |
| Products | Political commentary, opinion polling |
| Owner | Noson Lawen Partners (majority investor) |
Rasmussen Reports is an American company that conducts opinion polls. Founded in 2003, it asks people for their opinions on politics, current events, and business topics. The company is known for tracking the job approval rating of the U.S. president.
To gather information, Rasmussen Reports uses automated phone calls with pre-recorded questions and online surveys. The company makes money by selling subscriptions to its data and showing ads on its website.
Some experts have questioned the company's methods. They say its polls sometimes seem to favor the Republican Party. In 2024, the polling analysis website 538 stopped including Rasmussen's polls in its averages because they said the company did not meet their standards.
Contents
History
Rasmussen Reports was started in 2003 by Scott Rasmussen. He had already founded another polling company in 1994. Scott Rasmussen led the company until 2013, when he left to start a new digital media company.
The company is based in Asbury Park, New Jersey. In 2009, it received a large investment that helped it grow and hire more staff.
How They Conduct Polls
Rasmussen Reports uses a few different methods to find out what people think. Their goal is to track public opinion on everything from politics to consumer confidence.
Automated and Online Surveys
For many of its polls, like the daily one about the president, Rasmussen uses automated technology. This system calls random phone numbers to make sure it gets opinions from people all over the country.
To reach people who don't use landline phones, the company also uses online surveys. Participants for these surveys are chosen from a diverse group of people.
After collecting the answers, the company "weights" the data. This means they adjust the numbers to make sure the group of people they polled accurately represents the entire U.S. population in terms of age, gender, and other factors.
Focus on Likely Voters
Rasmussen often polls "likely voters" instead of all adults. Likely voters are people who are expected to vote in an election. This can change the results of a poll.
For example, a president's approval rating might be higher among all adults than it is among likely voters. This is because some groups, like young adults, might support a president but are less likely to vote.
What Do They Poll About?
Rasmussen Reports tracks public opinion on many different topics, especially those related to politics.
Presidential Approval
One of the most famous polls from Rasmussen is its daily Presidential Tracking Poll. This poll measures how many people approve or disapprove of the job the president is doing.
The company's polls often showed different results for presidents like Barack Obama and Donald Trump compared to other polling companies.
Congressional Elections
Rasmussen also tracks the "Generic Congressional Ballot." This poll asks voters if they would vote for the Republican or the Democrat in their local congressional race. It helps predict which party might have more support in upcoming elections for the United States Congress.
Important Issues
The company regularly asks people their opinions on major issues. In the past, these have included:
- Healthcare Reform: For years, Rasmussen tracked opinions on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, often finding that many people wanted to see the law changed.
- The Economy: They release daily updates on how confident consumers and investors are feeling about the economy.
- Direction of the Country: A weekly poll asks voters if they think the country is heading in the right direction or is on the wrong track.
Accuracy in Elections
Polling companies are often judged by how well they predict election outcomes. Rasmussen Reports has had a mixed record of accuracy over the years.
Presidential Elections
- 2004: The company's poll was very accurate, predicting the results for George W. Bush and John Kerry within one percentage point.
- 2008: Rasmussen's final poll was also very close to the actual result, showing Barack Obama defeating John McCain 52% to 46%.
- 2012: The final poll showed Mitt Romney with a 1-point lead over President Obama. However, Obama won the election by about 4 points.
- 2016: The final poll showed Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump by about 2 points in the popular vote, which was very close to the final result. Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1%.
- 2020: The final poll showed Joe Biden with a 1-point lead over Donald Trump. Biden ended up winning the election by about 4.5 points.
- 2024: The final poll showed Donald Trump with a 3-point lead over Kamala Harris. Trump won the popular vote by about 1.5 points.
Midterm Elections
In the 2010 midterm elections, Rasmussen correctly predicted that Republicans would make big gains in the House and Senate.
However, in the 2018 midterm elections, their final poll was not as accurate. It predicted Republicans would win the national vote by 1 point, but Democrats actually won by nearly 9 points. This was one of the largest errors among major polling firms for that election.
Praise and Criticism
Like many polling companies, Rasmussen Reports has received both praise and criticism for its work.
Praise for Rasmussen
Some experts have called Rasmussen's polls accurate and trustworthy. After the 2004 election, Slate magazine noted that Rasmussen's automated polls were more accurate than many of their human competitors.
In 2008, the news site Politico said the company's final poll "closely mirrored the election's outcome." Polling analyst Nate Silver once said that if he were stuck on a desert island, Rasmussen's poll would be the one he'd want to have because of its large sample size.
Criticism of Rasmussen
Other experts have criticized Rasmussen's methods. They argue that the company's polls often show a bias toward the Republican Party.
- Polling Methods: Critics point out that Rasmussen's polls have sometimes been less accurate than others. After the 2010 elections, Nate Silver found that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate among major pollsters that year.
- Question Wording: Some people say the way Rasmussen words its questions can influence the answers. They argue that questions are sometimes written to get a result that supports a conservative viewpoint.
- Excluding Polls: In 2024, the respected polling site FiveThirtyEight announced it would no longer use Rasmussen's polls in its analysis. They said the company's methods did not meet their quality standards.
See also
- Trafalgar Group
