Projections of population growth facts for kids

Population projections are like looking into a crystal ball to guess how many people will be on Earth in the future. These guesses help us understand how our growing population might affect our planet and everyone's well-being. Scientists use information about how people live, how many babies are born, and how long people live to make these predictions.

The United Nations (UN) keeps track of these numbers. In 1963, the world population grew very fast, by 2.3% each year. By 2023, this growth slowed down to 0.9%, which is about 74 million more people every year. The UN thinks the world population, which was 8 billion in 2023, might reach its highest point around 10.4 billion people in 2086. After that, it might slowly start to shrink. This prediction assumes that the number of babies born per woman will keep going down.

However, some other experts believe the population might peak earlier, around 2060-2070. This could happen if more people get educated and if family planning becomes more common, especially in developing countries.

The UN also predicts that most of the world's population growth between 2020 and 2050 will happen in less developed countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. More than half of this growth will come from just eight countries, and five of them are in Africa. For example, the UN expects Nigeria to gain about 340 million people, which is almost the current population of the United States! On the other hand, China might lose almost half of its population. Even though fewer babies are being born globally, the world population will likely keep growing for a while because of something called population momentum. This means there are already many young people who will soon have families.

World population growth 1700–2100, 2022 projection. This chart shows how the number of people on Earth has changed and how it might change in the future.

How Population Predictions Have Changed

Guessing future population numbers is tricky because birth rates and death rates can change. This means predictions have often been updated over time.

Predictions in the 21st Century

In the early 2000s, many thought the world population would stop growing around 2070. For example, in 2004, the UN predicted it would peak at 9.2 billion in 2075 and then stay around 9 billion until 2300.

But in 2012, the UN changed its mind. They then thought the population might not peak in the 21st century at all! They predicted it could reach 10.9 billion by 2100 and keep growing. The main reason for this change was that birth rates in Africa were not falling as quickly as expected.

However, the most recent UN report from 2022 changed the prediction again. Now, they expect the population to peak at 10.4 billion in the 2080s and then slowly start to decline. This new prediction is because birth rates in Africa are now falling faster than previously thought. For instance, the 2012 report thought Nigeria's population would reach 914 million by 2100, but the 2022 report lowered that to 546 million. This shows how much predictions can shift as new information comes in.

What Makes Populations Change?

The number of people in a country or area changes because of three main things: how many babies are born (fertility), how many people die (mortality), and how many people move in or out (migration).

Fertility

Map of countries by fertility rate (2023). This map shows how many children, on average, a woman has in different countries.

Fertility is measured by the total fertility rate (TFR). This is the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime. If people live longer and longer, the main thing that will affect future population growth is how the fertility rate changes.

Globally, the average fertility rate was 2.5 children per woman between 2015 and 2020. This is about half of what it was in the 1950s (5 children per woman). The UN expects this rate to keep falling, reaching 1.8 by the year 2100.

Mortality

Mortality refers to death rates. If many people are dying and life expectancy (how long people are expected to live) is low, changes in death rates can greatly affect population growth. But if death rates are already low and people live a long time, then changes in mortality don't affect population growth as much.

Because fewer children are dying now, the average global life expectancy has gone up a lot. It was 48 years in the 1950s and is expected to reach 83 years by 2100. This means people are living much longer lives.

Migration

Migration is when people move from one country or area to another. This can also significantly change a population. For example, between 2010 and 2020, many countries saw a large number of people move in, often because they needed workers. Other countries saw many people leave, sometimes because of problems in their home country.

World Population Predictions

Let's look at how the world population is expected to change in the near future (up to 2050) and further into the future (up to 2100).

World population prospects, 2022 projection. This chart shows different possible paths for world population growth.

Up to 2050

The UN's 2022 report predicts the following populations for different parts of the world by 2050, compared to the year 2000:

As you can see, Africa is expected to have the biggest population growth by far!

After 2050

Predictions for population changes after 2050 can vary a lot. This is because different organizations make different guesses about future birth rates, death rates, and migration.

The UN's 2022 report predicts that the world population will keep growing after 2050, but more slowly. It expects the population to reach its highest point at 10.4 billion in 2086, then slowly drop to about 10.3 billion by 2100. At that point, the world population might even start to shrink slightly.

Total Fertility Rate for Six Regions and the World, 1950-2100. This chart shows how the average number of children per woman has changed and is expected to change in different parts of the world.

Other groups have made different predictions. For example, one study from 2020 predicted that the world population would peak earlier, in 2064, at 9.7 billion, and then drop to 8.8 billion by 2100. This prediction assumes that women's rights will continue to improve globally, leading to fewer births.

Where Will Most Growth Happen?

From 2020 to 2050 and even beyond to 2100, most of the world's population growth is expected to happen in Africa. Out of the 1.9 billion additional people expected between 2020 and 2050, 1.2 billion will be in Africa. Asia will add 0.7 billion, and the rest of the world will have almost no growth.

Africa's share of the global population is expected to grow from 17% in 2020 to 38% by 2100. Meanwhile, Asia's share will fall from 60% to 45%. This strong growth in Africa will happen because there are already many young people there who are starting to have families.

The table below shows how the yearly percentage changes in population are predicted to shift for different regions:

The UN predicts that population growth will slow down in all regions between 2020 and 2100. By 2100, three regions will actually see their populations shrink, and the world as a whole will start to experience a global population decline.

Countries with the Most People by 2050 and 2100

The UN has also predicted how the populations of individual countries will change. In 2022, the world population reached 8 billion. The UN's 2022 report expects it to be around 9.7 billion in 2050 and about 10.3 billion by 2100.

The table below shows how the rankings of the most populated countries might change:

Between 2020 and 2050, about half of the world's population increase is expected to come from just eight countries: India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Egypt, and Indonesia.

Future of Big Cities

Large cities are important places for jobs and new ideas. Currently, about 11% of the world's population lives in the 101 biggest cities. By the end of this century, this number could grow to 15% to 23%.

Here are some predictions for the populations of the largest cities in the future:

Projected Populations in Millions

Rank	City	Pop. 2025	City	Pop. 2050	City	Pop. 2075	City	Pop. 2100
1	Tokyo	36.40	Mumbai	42.40	Kinshasa	58.42	Lagos	88.30
2	Mumbai	26.39	Delhi	36.16	Mumbai	57.86	Kinshasa	83.53
3	Delhi	22.50	Dhaka	35.19	Lagos	57.20	Dar es Salaam	73.68
4	Dhaka	22.02	Kinshasa	35.00	Delhi	49.34	Mumbai	67.24
5	São Paulo	21.43	Kolkata	33.04	Dhaka	46.22	Delhi	57.33
6	Mexico City	21.01	Lagos	32.63	Kolkata	45.09	Khartoum	56.59
7	New York City	20.63	Tokyo	32.62	Karachi	43.37	Niamey	56.15
8	Kolkata	20.56	Karachi	31.70	Dar es Salaam	37.49	Dhaka	54.25
9	Shanghai	19.41	New York City	24.77	Cairo	33.00	Kolkata	52.40
10	Karachi	19.10	Mexico City	24.33	Manila	32.75	Kabul	50.30
11	Kinshasa	16.76	Cairo	24.03	Kabul	32.67	Karachi	49.06
12	Lagos	15.80	Manila	23.55	Khartoum	30.68	Nairobi	46.66
13	Cairo	15.56	São Paulo	22.82	Tokyo	28.92	Lilongwe	41.38
14	Manila	14.81	Shanghai	21.32	Nairobi	28.42	Blantyre	40.91
15	Beijing	14.55	Lahore	17.45	New York City	27.92	Cairo	40.54
16	Buenos Aires	13.77	Kabul	17.09	Baghdad	24.39	Kampala	40.14
17	Los Angeles	13.67	Los Angeles	16.42	Mexico City	24.18	Manila	39.96
18	Rio de Janeiro	13.41	Chennai	16.28	Lahore	23.88	Lusaka	37.74
19	Jakarta	12.36	Khartoum	16.00	Addis Ababa	23.81	Mogadishu	36.37
20	Istanbul	12.10	Dar es Salaam	15.97	Chennai	22.21	Addis Ababa	35.82
21	Guangzhou	11.84	Beijing	15.97	Bengaluru	21.31	Baghdad	34.10
22	Osaka-Kobe	11.37	Jakarta	15.92	São Paulo	21.28	New York City	30.19
23	Moscow	10.53	Bengaluru	15.62	Shanghai	21.05	N'Djamena	28.81
24	Lahore	11.37	Buenos Aires	15.55	Niamey	20.37	Kano	28.28
25	Shenzhen	10.20	Baghdad	15.09	Kampala	20.23	Sana'a	27.21
26	Chennai	10.13	Hyderabad	14.61	Hyderabad	19.94	Lahore	27.05
27	Paris	10.04	Luanda	14.30	Luanda	19.65	Chennai	25.81
28	Chicago	9.93	Rio de Janeiro	14.29	Los Angeles	18.51	Tokyo	25.63
29	Tehran	9.81	Nairobi	14.25	Kano	17.69	Bengaluru	24.77
30	Seoul	9.74	Istanbul	14.18	Jakarta	17.55	Ibadan	23.68
31	Bengaluru	9.72	Addis Ababa	13.21	Ahmedabad	16.93	Luanda	23.55
32	Lima	9.60	Guangzhou	13.00	Sana'a	16.69	Bamako	22.95
33	Bogotá	9.60	Ahmedabad	12.43	Rio de Janeiro	16.56	Mexico City	22.22
34	Wuhan	9.34	Chittagong	12.21	Buenos Aires	16.40	Dakar	21.18
35	Tianjin	9.24	Chicago	11.93	Chittagong	16.04	Maputo	21.07
36	Hyderabad	9.09	Ho Chi Minh City	11.86	Mogadishu	15.94	Ouagadougou	20.63
37	London	8.62	Lima	11.57	Beijing	15.78	Antananarivo	20.53
38	Bangkok	8.33	Bogotá	11.56	Abidjan	15.52	Los Angeles	20.01
39	Hong Kong	8.31	Shenzhen	11.20	Lilongwe	15.32	Rio de Janeiro	19.84
40	Chongqing	8.28	Paris	11.12	Blantyre	15.06	Ahmedabad	19.71
41	Luanda	8.24	Bangkok	11.08	Pune	14.91	Abidjan	19.70
42	Ho Chi Minh City	8.15	Tehran	11.00	Ibadan	14.81	São Paulo	19.12
43	Baghdad	8.06	Pune	10.92	Istanbul	14.68	Chittagong	18.82
44	Khartoum	7.94	Abidjan	10.71	Dakar	14.56	Abuja	18.58
45	Ahmedabad	7.74	Kano	10.44	Lusaka	14.52	Kigali	18.30
46	Chittagong	7.64	Wuhan	10.26	N'djamena	14.48	Jakarta	18.22
47	Kabul	7.18	Moscow	10.24	Ho Chi Minh City	14.22	Pune	17.32
48	Santiago	7.03	Osaka-Kobe	10.19	Bamako	13.54	Conakry	17.32
49	Pune	6.80	Tianjin	10.15	Chicago	13.44	Buenos Aires	16.99
50	Hanoi	6.75	Sana'a	10.05	Guangzhou	12.84	Beijing	15.58
51	Belo Horizonte	6.75	Hanoi	9.83	Bangkok	12.55	Ho Chi Minh City	15.53
52	Santiago	6.31	London	9.75	Surat	12.51	Istanbul	14.79
53	Riyadh	6.28	Seoul	9.47	Lima	12.44	Alexandria	14.72
54	Miami	6.27	Hong Kong	9.47	Antananarivo	12.40	Lubumbashi	14.66
55	Dongguan	6.16	Kampala	9.43	Alexandria	11.99	Chicago	14.54
56	Shenyang	6.16	Surat	9.17	Bogota	11.89	Surat	14.53
57	Addis Ababa	6.16	Chongqing	9.09	Hanoi	11.79	Mbuji-Mayi	14.20
58	Philadelphia	6.13	Ibadan	8.75	Abuja	11.75	Mombasa	14.01
59	Abidjan	6.03	Alexandria	8.73	Ouagadougou	11.70	Phnom Penh	13.88
60	Toronto	5.95	Dakar	8.52	Paris	11.64	Kaduna	13.20
61	Madrid	5.94	Yangon	8.44	Shenzhen	11.06	Hanoi	12.87
62	Nairobi	5.87	Riyadh	8.09	Maputo	10.92	Lima	12.81
63	Yangon	5.87	Bamako	7.63	Conakry	10.63	Guangzhou	12.68
64	Surat	5.70	Miami	7.53	Hong Kong	10.41	Bangkok	12.14
65	Dar es Salaam	5.69	Santiago	7.49	Tehran	10.36	Paris	11.86
66	Alexandria	5.65	Kanpur	7.39	Yangon	10.26	Kanpur	11.73
67	Ankara	5.50	Philadelphia	7.36	Wuhan	10.13	Al Hudaydah	11.51
68	Dallas–Fort Worth	5.42	Antananarivo	7.26	Kanpur	10.09	Hong Kong	11.46
69	Tlaquepaque	5.37	Belo Horizonte	7.19	London	10.09	Casablanca	11.42
70	Tonalá	5.37	Faisalabad	7.11	Tianjin	10.03	Monrovia	11.21
71	Zapopan	5.37	Toronto	7.04	Kigali	9.79	Bogotá	11.20
72	Chengdu	5.32	Abuja	6.94	Faisalabad	9.73	Benin City	11.14
73	Xi'an	5.23	Jaipur	6.91	Lubumbashi	9.57	Giza	11.00
74	Barcelona	5.18	Ouagadougou	6.90	Moscow	9.51	Faisalabad	11.00
75	Atlanta	5.15	Niamey	6.79	Jaipur	9.43	Accra	10.99
76	Guiyang	5.11	Santiago	6.77	Mbuji-Mayi	9.27	Jaipur	10.95
77	Singapore	5.10	Dongguan	6.76	Osaka-Kobe	9.03	Shenzhen	10.92
78	Kano	5.06	Shenyang	6.76	Riyadh	9.00	Taiz	10.82
79	Houston	5.05	Mogadishu	6.57	Chongqing	8.98	Lomé	10.21
80	Guadalajara	4.97	Giza	6.52	Giza	8.96	Lucknow	10.05
81	Guadalajara	4.97	Madrid	6.52	Phnom Penh	8.85	Wuhan	10.00
82	Guadalupe	4.95	Dallas-Fort Worth	6.51	Lucknow	8.65	Tianjin	9.90
83	Washington, D.C.	4.89	Lucknow	6.34	Mombasa	8.53	Douala	9.68
84	Sydney	4.83	Tlaquepaque	6.22	Miami	8.49	London	9.56
85	Nanjing	4.77	Tonalá	6.22	Philadelphia	8.30	Riyadh	9.40
86	Harbin	4.70	Zapopan	6.22	Kaduna	8.26	Port Harcourt	9.40
87	Porto Alegre	4.63	Atlanta	6.19	Accra	7.98	Miami	9.18
88	Detroit	4.61	Lubumbashi	6.15	Nagpur	7.86	Nagpur	9.13
89	Kanpur	4.60	Conakry	6.14	Toronto	7.81	Philadelphia	8.98
90	Brasilia	4.58	Houston	6.06	Seoul	7.67	Mosul	8.87
91	Algiers	4.50	Boston	6.04	Aleppo	7.37	Dallas-Fort Worth	7.93
92	St. Petersburg	4.48	Mbuji-Mayi	5.95	Dallas–Fort Worth	7.34	Rawalpindi	7.88
93	Monterrey	4.41	Accra	5.94	Lomé	7.25	Moscow	8.42
94	Sana'a	4.38	Aleppo	5.90	Monrovia	7.08	Aleppo	8.37
95	Recife	4.35	Washington, D.C.	5.87	Douala	7.07	Toronto	8.33
96	Changchun	4.34	Chengdu	5.84	Al-Hudaydah	7.06	Patna	8.17
97	Jaipur	4.30	Sydney	5.82	Patna	7.03	Tehran	8.17
98	Faisalabad	4.28	Guadalajara	5.76	Santiago	6.98	Osaka-Kobe	8.00
99	Melbourne	4.24	Nagpur	5.76	Atlanta	6.97	Chongqing	8.87
100	Ibadan	4.23	Xi'an	5.75	Rawalpindi	6.97	Dallas-Fort Worth	7.93
101	Dakar	4.23	Guadalupe	5.73	Benin City	6.96	Rawalpindi	7.88

Images for kids

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  Estimates of population levels in different continents between 1950 and 2050, according to the United Nations (2011 edition). The vertical axis is logarithmic and is in millions of people.

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  UN estimates (as of 2017) for world population by continent in 2000 and in 2050 (pie chart size to scale).