Potential superpower facts for kids

A potential superpower is a country or group of countries that people think might become a superpower in the future. A superpower is a country or union of countries that is very strong and can influence things all over the world. They do this through their economy (money and trade), military (army, navy, air force), technology, politics, and culture.

Right now, the United States is generally seen as the world's only superpower, especially since the Soviet Union broke apart. But many experts believe that China, the European Union, India, and Russia could become superpowers in the 21st century. Japan was also considered a potential superpower in the 1980s.

China's Global Influence

Uncontested superpower: United States. Potential superpowers: China, European Union, India, Russia.

The People's Republic of China is often talked about as a rising economic and military power. Many experts say China has a strong chance to become a superpower. This is because of its fast economic growth and its very large population.

The U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, has called China the "biggest challenge" to the United States in this century. He believes China is the only country strong enough to change the current global order (how the world works).

China's growing economic activities around the world are a big focus. For example, it started the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which is like a new bank for development. It also launched the Belt and Road Initiative, a huge project to build roads, railways, and ports globally. Some people think that in the future, the world will be dominated by two main economic powers: the United States and China. China is also becoming a leader in artificial intelligence (AI).

However, some people wonder if China's fast growth can continue forever. They point out that China has a very large but aging population. Also, pollution from its rapid industrial growth is a concern. Unlike some other powerful countries, China doesn't attract many skilled immigrants. Some also argue that China doesn't have enough "soft power." This means its culture and values aren't as widely admired or copied around the world.

China's military strength is also a topic of discussion. Some believe that its partnerships with Russia and Central Asian countries could make the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation a powerful group, similar to NATO. Others argue that China still has many potentially unfriendly neighbors. They also say it needs more strong allies to truly compete with the United States.

European Union's Power

The European Union (EU) is a group of countries in Europe. Some people say it is already a superpower or is becoming one. This is mainly because of its strong economy and its political influence worldwide. The EU has a large population and a huge combined economy. Also, many people around the world don't always agree with U.S. foreign policy.

The EU doesn't have one single army like the United States. Each member country has its own military. However, some argue that having a unified military isn't as important in the 21st century. They believe the EU's economic and political power is enough to make it a superpower. Others disagree, saying that without a single strong military, the EU can't truly compete with the United States.

The EU's political system is also debated. It's not as politically unified as a single country. Some say its quiet diplomacy and focus on international laws are a new way to show influence. They believe this fulfills the political requirements for being a superpower. But others argue that without a central foreign or defense policy, the EU's power is uncertain. They even suggest the EU is still very dependent on the United States.

The European Union is sometimes called a "regulatory superpower." This is because its rules and standards are often adopted by many countries outside the EU. This is known as the Brussels effect.

India's Growing Strength

The Republic of India is often discussed as a potential economic superpower. Many believe India's fast economic growth is a key reason for this. In the 2010s, it was even predicted to grow faster than China.

Experts from Harvard University have said that India's projected 7% annual growth rate could keep it ahead of China. This would make India the fastest-growing economy in the world. India also has a big advantage: a very large and young population. The average age in India is 28, which is much younger than China's average age of 39.

However, some point out that there is still a lot of inequality in India. Also, its potential for international trade seems more limited compared to countries like China. Although India was briefly the fastest-growing economy in 2015, its growth has slowed down since 2018.

Some also argue that India's government and its way of working might prevent it from becoming a superpower. They say that the government doesn't often plan its long-term foreign policy goals as a whole.

Russia's Future Role

Russia has a long history of being a powerful country. During the Soviet era, it was one of the world's two superpowers. But after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia lost that status.

In the early 21st century, some people have suggested that Russia could become a superpower again. Others even claim it already is one. For example, a professor named Steven Rosefielde predicted in 2005 that Russia would become a superpower before 2010. He warned that this could lead to a new arms race. Stephen Kinzer, a journalist, has compared Russia's actions in nearby countries, like Crimea and Ukraine, to those of other superpowers.

However, many others have a less hopeful view of Russia's chances. Some say that severe climate change would be needed for many of Russia's natural resources to become useful.

Another big challenge for Russia is its population. Experts like Fred Weir and Niall Ferguson have noted that Russia's population is aging and shrinking. This severely limits its potential to become a major world power again. However, Russia has seen a small increase in its population since the late 2000s. This is partly due to immigration and a rise in birth rates.

Russia's military strength has also been questioned. After recent events in Ukraine in 2022, some economists suggested that Russia's military faced challenges. They called Russia a "Potemkin Superpower," meaning it might look strong but isn't as powerful as it seems.

Comparing Potential Superpowers

Here's a quick look at some facts about these countries and the European Union:

Country/Union	Population	Area (km2)	Economy (Nominal GDP)		Economy (PPP GDP)		Military spending (billions of Int$)	Human Development Index (HDI)	UN Security Council Veto Power
			(USD million)	Per person ($)	(Int$ million)	Per person (Int$)
United States	332,632,918	9,525,067	25,035,164	68,309	22,675,271	75,180	877	0.926 (very high)	Yes
China	1,411,778,724	9,596,961	18,321,197	11,819	26,656,766	21,291	292	0.761 (high)	Yes
European Union	447,706,209	4,233,262	17,127,535	38,256	20,918,062	53,960	186	0.911 (very high)	(France)
India	1,400,625,899	3,287,263	3,468,566	3,057	10,207,290	10,475	81.4	0.645 (medium)	No
Russia	146,171,015	17,125,191	2,133,092	11,654	4,328,122	31,967	86.4	0.824 (very high)	Yes

Former Candidates

Japan's Past Potential

In the 1980s, many experts thought Japan would become a superpower. This was because of its large population and its growing economy. Japan also had strong military, industrial, technological, and cultural influence. Its economy was growing very fast, and some expected it to even surpass the U.S. economy.

However, this prediction didn't come true. Japan's stock market crashed, leading to what are called the "Lost Decades." During this time, Japan's economy struggled. Also, its population started getting older in the late 1980s and began to shrink after 2011.

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