Nouriel Roubini facts for kids
Quick facts for kids
Nouriel Roubini
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Roubini in 2012
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| Born | March 29, 1958 Istanbul, Turkey
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| Nationality | Iranian-American |
| Institution | New York University |
| Field | Economics |
| Alma mater | Bocconi University (B.A.) Harvard University (Ph.D.) |
| Influences | Jeffrey Sachs Larry Summers |
| Information at IDEAS / RePEc | |
Nouriel Roubini (born March 29, 1958) is an American economic expert, speaker, and writer. He was born in Turkey and has Iranian roots. Since 2021, he has been a Professor Emeritus at the Stern School of Business of New York University.
Roubini studied political economics at Bocconi University in Italy. He then earned his doctorate in international economics from Harvard University. He taught at Yale and advised on emerging markets. In the 1990s, he worked for the U.S. government as a senior economist.
Contents
Early Life and Education
Nouriel Roubini was born in Istanbul, Turkey. His family was Orthodox Jewish and his father sold rugs. When he was young, people expected him to join the family rug business.
His family moved a few times when he was a child. They lived briefly in Tehran, Iran, and then in Tel Aviv, Israel. He still has family in Israel. From age five to 25, he lived mostly in Milan, Italy. He went to a Jewish school there.
In 1976-77, he studied for a year at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel. He then went to Bocconi University in Italy. He earned his bachelor's degree in economics with high honors in 1982. In 2009, he was named "Bocconian of the Year." He received his PhD in international economics from Harvard University in 1988. His advisor there was Jeffrey Sachs.
Career in Economics
During the 1990s, Roubini taught at Yale University and later in New York. He also worked for a short time at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
From 1998 to 1999, he was a senior economist for the U.S. government. He advised Timothy Geithner at the Treasury Department. He also directed the Office of Policy Development and Review. He returned to the IMF briefly in 2001.
Roubini co-wrote a book about helping countries with money problems. It was called Bailouts or Bail-ins?. He also started his own consulting company. He has said that Jeffrey Sachs and Larry Summers greatly influenced his thinking. Today, he is a professor emeritus at New York University's Stern School of Business.
How Roubini Analyzes the Economy
Roubini describes his way of looking at the economy as "holistic." This means he looks at the big picture. Instead of just using math models, he combines ideas from history, books, and world politics. He calls this the "entire enchilada."
He once explained his method at an IMF meeting. He said his predictions were like a "smell test." Journalist Julia Ioffe noted that his ideas are "sprawling" and "rush out quickly."
Predicting Economic Downturns
Roubini was one of several experts who predicted the financial crisis of 2007–08. He had studied problems in developing countries for 20 years. He saw similar warning signs in the U.S. economy. He believed the U.S. was in a huge "credit bubble."
Because of his predictions, the media gave him nicknames like "Dr. Doom." They also called him a "permabear," which means someone who always expects bad economic times. In 2008, Fortune magazine called him a "sage" (a wise person). They noted that he had warned about falling home prices in 2005. The New York Times said he foresaw homeowners not paying their mortgages. He also predicted that the global financial system would almost stop working.
In September 2006, he warned the IMF about a housing crash in the U.S. He said it would lead to a deep recession. Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman said in 2009 that Roubini's predictions, which once seemed strange, had come true.
Accuracy of Predictions
Not everyone agrees with Roubini's "prophet" status. Financial journalist Justin Fox pointed out that Roubini's early predictions were different. He first warned of a dollar crash, then later focused on a U.S. housing bust. Fox noted that Roubini didn't give a perfectly clear picture of how things would unfold.
Other critics say that after his correct prediction of the 2008 crisis, many of his later forecasts were wrong. For example, he predicted more crashes as the economy recovered. If investors had followed his advice, they would have missed a long period of growth in the U.S. stock market.
Economist Anirvan Banerji compared him to a "stopped clock" that is right twice a day. He suggested that if you predict a recession every year, eventually you will be right.
Specific Forecasts and Outcomes
- In January 2009, Roubini predicted oil prices would stay below $40 for the year. By the end of 2009, they were $80.
- In March 2009, he thought the S&P 500 stock index would fall below 600. Instead, it closed at over 1,115, a big gain.
- He predicted the U.S. economy would decline in late 2009. However, it actually grew.
- In June 2009, he warned of a "perfect storm" coming, but it did not happen.
- He also predicted the U.S. government would take over many large banks, which did not occur.
- In October 2009, he said the price of gold would not rise much. But it rose significantly over the next 18 months.
- In May 2010, he predicted a stock market decline. The S&P actually rose about 20% over the next year.
- In 2012, he predicted Greece would leave the Eurozone, but it did not.
- In 2020, he said governments would not respond strongly to the Covid-19 pandemic. However, they did. He also predicted a U.S.-Iran war, which did not happen.
Despite some incorrect predictions, Roubini has become a well-known figure in economic discussions. He travels often to meet with world leaders. Foreign Policy magazine named him one of the "Top 100 Global Thinkers" in 2011 and 2012.
Views on the U.S. Economy
In the 1990s, Roubini studied why some developing economies failed. He found that a common problem was large debts from foreign loans. He thought the U.S. might face a similar issue. In 2004, he began writing about a possible future economic collapse in the U.S.
In 2004, he said a coming recession would cause the dollar to crash. When a recession did happen a few years later, the dollar actually got stronger. In 2005, after Hurricane Katrina, he predicted an economic disaster. But the next two years saw more financial activity.
In September 2006, he predicted the end of the housing bubble. He noted that home prices had risen too much since 1997. He believed this was a "speculative bubble" that was now bursting. He argued that central banks should act against such bubbles.
By May 2009, he thought analysts were too hopeful about the U.S. economy recovering quickly. He expected a long recession, possibly like Japan's "Lost Decade" of slow growth.
Roubini believes that the U.S. economy grew too much through "boom-and-bust cycles." He felt the U.S. needed a new way to grow. He said the country had relied on "overconsumption and lack of savings." He wanted to see America invest in more productive areas, like infrastructure and renewable resources.
In July 2009, he warned of a "perfect storm" if the government didn't have a clear plan to exit the crisis. This storm could include high debt, rising oil prices, and a weak job market. He feared it could lead to a "double-dip recession."
Views on the Global Economy
2006 Global Outlook
In 2006, Roubini wrote that the U.S. was heading into a long recession. He believed this was due to falling house prices.
For Europe, he predicted that countries like Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Greece might have to leave the Eurozone. This would happen if they didn't make serious economic changes. He warned that slow growth would worsen their public debt.
2009 Global Outlook
In 2009, TIME magazine named him one of the "TIME 100" most influential people.
In early 2009, he remained worried about the U.S. and global economy. He said the financial system was "subprime," not just the mortgage market. He believed that as the U.S. economy shrank, the entire world economy would go into recession. He warned that even developing countries would feel the pain.
He stressed that the subprime issues were a global problem. He noted that housing bubbles had happened in many countries, not just the U.S.
Roubini's concerns were for the short term. In Foreign Policy magazine, he wrote that the global financial crisis was only in its early stages. He felt his predictions for the coming year were even more serious.
In January 2009, he said the U.S. banking system was "effectively insolvent." He suggested the government should close down banks that were beyond saving. He felt the economy was like a "war economy" and needed strong action.
In December 2009, he said the price of gold looked "suspiciously like a bubble." However, by September 2012, gold prices had risen even more.
2010 Global Outlook
In 2010, Roubini warned that the crisis was not over. He saw new bubbles forming. He explained that private debt problems had become public debt problems. Governments had taken on losses to avoid a depression. But he said rising public debt would eventually have to be paid.
In May 2010, global markets dropped due to problems in Greece and the Eurozone. Roubini believed Greece was just the first of many countries facing debt issues. He said governments now had to worry about their own ability to pay debts.
Roubini met with officials in China in 2009. He noted that many Chinese blamed American "overborrowing" for the recession. However, he said they also realized that American demand created a market for Chinese exports.
2011-12 Global Outlook
Roubini and political scientist Ian Bremmer described the 21st century as a "G-Zero world." They meant that no single country, like the U.S., could solve global problems alone. They believed this would lead to more conflict than cooperation. They wrote that major powers were too busy with their own problems. Developing countries were focused on their own growth.
In July 2012, Roubini predicted a global "perfect storm" for 2013. He thought economies worldwide would slow down or stop.
2014-19 Global Outlook
By May 2014, Roubini became more positive about the economy. He said many global risks had lessened. He noted improvements in Europe, Japan, and the United States. He praised the Federal Reserve's policies, which he thought would help stock markets.
In early 2017, Roubini suggested that Donald Trump's election might lead to less globalization. He felt this could cause global instability and more conflicts.
In 2018, Roubini criticized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin to a U.S. Senate committee. He was also a member of the Berggruen Institute's 21st Century Council.
In November 2019, he wrote an article titled "Nine Reasons Why the Stock Markets Are Far Too Optimistic."
2020 Global Outlook
On February 17, 2020, Roubini warned of financial weaknesses. He said they could cause major economic and political problems, like nothing seen since 2008. Two days later, the market peaked before the 2020 stock market crash. He then warned that markets were too calm about the COVID-19 pandemic.
Views on Cryptocurrencies
Nouriel Roubini often criticizes cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
He sees blockchain, the technology behind cryptocurrencies, as linked to a belief system. This belief system, he says, views governments and traditional banks as bad. He thinks cryptocurrencies are about "greed" for those who promote them.
Consulting Work
In 2005, Roubini started Roubini Global Economics. This was a small company that advised on economic matters. He said he created it to gather information about world events. By 2011, the company was not making a profit. He closed the firm in 2016.
In 2017, he started Roubini Macro Associates, another consulting firm in New York. He is also the Chief Economist for Atlas Capital Team LP. He is also a co-founder of Rosa & Roubini Associates.
Personal Life
Journalist Helaine Olen described Roubini as having an accent that reminds her of a "James Bond villain." The Financial Times noted his serious and negative manner. New York Times journalist Stephen Mihm said Roubini often looks pained and rarely smiles.
He speaks English, Persian, Italian, and Hebrew. He also speaks some French. Roubini calls himself a "global nomad." He enjoys visiting different countries to experience other cultures.
Roubini is a U.S. citizen. He is identified as a Democrat. In early 2014, he announced he was practicing Transcendental Meditation.
Personal Investments
In a 2009 interview, Roubini talked about his personal finances. He said he saves about 30% of his income. He has no debts other than his mortgage. He described himself as a "frugal person" who doesn't need expensive things.
He also shared his investment strategy. He used to have a lot of money in stocks. But in the three years before the interview, he kept about 95% of his money in cash. He said earning 0% from savings was better than losing 50% in the market. He does not believe in picking individual stocks. He advises against investing as if you are gambling.
Writings
- 2022: MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them, Little Brown
- 2010: Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance, Penguin Press
- 2006: (editor with Marc Uzan) New International Financial Architecture, Edward Elgar Publishing
- 2004: (with Brad Setser) Bailouts or Bail-ins? Responding to Financial Crises in Emerging Economies, Peterson Institute
- 1997: (with Alberto Alesina & Gerald D. Cohen) Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy, MIT Press
See also
In Spanish: Nouriel Roubini para niños
