Nouriel Roubini facts for kids
Quick facts for kids
Nouriel Roubini
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| Born | March 29, 1958 Istanbul, Turkey
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| Nationality | Iranian-American |
| Institution | New York University |
| Field | Economics |
| Alma mater | Bocconi University (B.A.) Harvard University (Ph.D.) |
| Influences | Jeffrey Sachs Larry Summers |
| Information at IDEAS / RePEc | |
Nouriel Roubini (born March 29, 1958) is an economic expert, speaker, and writer. He was born in Turkey and is Iranian-American. He is a professor emeritus at the Stern School of Business of New York University since 2021.
Roubini studied political economics at Bocconi University in Italy. He then earned his doctorate in international economics at Harvard University. He taught at Yale and worked as an advisor on emerging markets. In the 1990s, he was a senior economist for the US government for one year. Roubini often shares his views on money and the economy.
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Early Life and Education
Nouriel Roubini was born in Istanbul, Turkey. His family was Orthodox Jewish and his father sold rugs. When he was young, people expected him to join the family rug business.
When he was one year old, his family lived briefly in Tehran, Iran. At age three, they moved to Tel Aviv, Israel. He still has family there. From age five in 1963 until 1983, he lived in Italy, mostly in Milan. He went to a Jewish school there. He also spent a year at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel.
He later went to Bocconi University in Italy. He earned a B.A. degree in economics with high honors in 1982. In 2009, he was named "Bocconian of the Year." He received his PhD in international economics from Harvard University in 1988.
Career Highlights
During the 1990s, Roubini taught at Yale and in New York. He also worked for a short time at the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. From 1998 to 1999, he was a senior economist in the US government during the Bill Clinton administration.
He also worked at the US Treasury Department. He was a senior advisor to Timothy Geithner from July to October 1999. Then, from October 1999 to June 2000, he directed the Office of Policy Development and Review. He returned to the IMF briefly in 2001.
Roubini co-wrote a book about helping economies that are in trouble. He also started a consulting company. Today, he is a professor emeritus at the Stern School of Business at New York University.
How Roubini Analyzes the Economy
Roubini says his way of looking at the economy is "holistic." This means he doesn't just use math formulas. Instead, he combines ideas from history, books, and world politics. He calls this his "entire enchilada" approach. He once said his method was like a "smell test" for predicting a recession. Some people have called his approach "almost shamanistic" because it seems so unique.
Journalist Julia Ioffe described his way of speaking as "sprawling, non-linear, and hypercaffeinated." She noted that his ideas come out quickly, "like a magician's scarves."
Predicting Economic Changes
Roubini was one of the few experts who predicted the big financial crisis of 2007–08. He had studied problems in other countries for 20 years. He saw similar warning signs in the US, like a huge credit bubble.
Because of his predictions, the media gave him nicknames like "Dr. Doom" and "permabear." A "permabear" is an economist who often predicts economic downturns. In 2008, Fortune magazine called him a "sage" (a wise person). The New York Times noted that he foresaw problems like homeowners not paying their mortgages. He also predicted that the global financial system would almost stop working. In 2006, he warned the IMF about a housing bust, an oil shock, and a deep recession in the US. Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman said in 2009 that Roubini's predictions, which once seemed strange, actually came true or were even worse in reality.
However, some people have pointed out that Roubini has also made predictions that did not come true. For example, financial journalist Justin Fox noted that Roubini's predictions about the 2007 crisis were not perfectly clear. Others said that after his correct prediction, he continued to predict more crashes. These later predictions were often wrong. If people had always listened to him, they might have missed out on good times in the stock market.
Economist Anirvan Banerji compared him to a "stopped clock" that is right twice a day. He meant that if you keep predicting a recession, eventually you will be right.
Specific Predictions and Outcomes
In January 2009, Roubini predicted that oil prices would stay below $40 for the whole year. However, by the end of 2009, oil prices were at $80. In March 2009, he thought the S&P 500 stock index would fall below 600. Instead, it closed at over 1,115, a big increase.
In April 2009, Roubini predicted the US economy would shrink in late 2009. He also thought it would grow very little in 2010. But the US economy actually grew steadily during those times. In June 2009, he predicted a "perfect storm" was coming, but it did not happen. He also predicted the US government would take over many large banks, which did not occur.
In October 2009, he said the price of gold could go above $1,000 but not much higher. He was wrong, as gold prices rose significantly over the next 18 months. In May 2010, he predicted a big drop in the stock market, but the S&P actually rose. In 2012, he predicted Greece would leave the Eurozone, but it did not. In 2020, he thought governments would not spend much to help during the COVID-19 pandemic, but they did. He also predicted a US-Iran war in 2020, which did not happen.
Despite some incorrect predictions, Roubini has become a well-known figure in economic discussions. He travels often to meet with leaders around the world. He was named one of the "Top 100 Global Thinkers" by Foreign Policy magazine in 2011 and 2012.
US Economy Focus
In the 1990s, Roubini studied why some emerging economies failed. He noticed they often had large debts from other countries. He thought the US might face similar problems. In 2004, he started writing about a possible future economic downturn in the US.
In 2004, he said a coming recession would make the dollar crash. When a recession did happen a few years later, the dollar actually became stronger. In 2005, after Hurricane Katrina, Roubini predicted an economic disaster. However, the next two years saw more financial activity.
In September 2006, he predicted the end of the real estate bubble. He said home prices had risen too much and were about to fall. He believed central banks should act to prevent such bubbles. He expected a "nasty fall" for real estate. By May 2009, he thought analysts were too hopeful about the US economy recovering quickly. He expected a long, slow recovery, like Japan's "Lost Decade."
Roubini believes that the US economy grew too much through "boom-and-bust cycles." He felt the US needed a new way to grow, not based on too much spending and not enough saving. He wanted America to invest in more productive areas, like new technologies and infrastructure. He said finding this new growth model would be a challenge.
In July 2009, he warned of a "perfect storm" if the government didn't plan how to end its economic support. This storm could include high government debt, rising oil prices, and a weak job market. He thought these issues could cause a "double-dip recession." In August 2009, he predicted the global economy would start recovering by late 2009. However, he thought the US economy would grow slowly for the next two years.
Global Economy Focus
2006 Global Outlook
In the summer of 2006, Roubini wrote that the US was heading into a long recession. He believed this was due to falling house prices.
He also predicted that some European countries, like Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Greece, might have to leave the Eurozone. He said this would happen if they didn't make big economic changes. He felt that slower growth would make their government debts worse.
2009 Global Outlook
In 2009, TIME magazine named him one of the "TIME 100" most influential people.
In January 2009, he remained worried about the US and global economy. He said the financial problems were worldwide, not just in the US. He believed that as the US economy struggled, the entire global economy would also go into recession. He noted that housing bubbles had happened in many countries, not just the US.
His concerns were mostly about the short-term future. In Foreign Policy magazine, he wrote that the "global financial pandemic" he had warned about was happening. He felt that the world was still in the early stages of the crisis.
At a conference in January 2009, he said the US banking system was "effectively insolvent." He suggested that the US government should close down banks that were beyond saving. He believed the economy needed a "command-economy allocation of credit," meaning the government should direct where money goes.
In December 2009, when the price of gold went over $1,200 an ounce, Roubini called it a "bubble." Even though gold prices rose higher later, he still thought it was a risky investment.
2010 Global Outlook
In 2010, Roubini warned that the crisis was not over, even with improving economies. He said new problems were coming. He explained that private debts had become public debts because governments helped financial institutions. He warned that rising government debt would eventually need to be paid for.
In May 2010, markets around the world dropped due to problems in Greece and the Eurozone. Roubini warned about possible issues with governments being able to pay their debts.
He met with officials in China in 2009. He noted that many Chinese people blamed American spending for their own economic slowdown. However, he said that Chinese leaders also knew that American demand created a market for Chinese goods. He felt that China wanted to rely less on American customers but also needed to keep its exporters busy.
2011-12 Global Outlook
Roubini and political scientist Ian Bremmer described the world in the 21st century as becoming more divided economically and politically. They called this a "G-Zero world." They believed the United States no longer had enough resources to be the main global leader. This could lead to more conflict between countries. They wrote that other major powers were too busy with their own problems to help globally. Also, rising powers like Brazil, China, and India were focused on their own growth.
In July 2012, Roubini predicted a global "perfect storm" for 2013. He thought economies worldwide would slow down or stop completely.
2014-19 Global Outlook
By May 2014, Roubini became more positive about the economy. He said many risks to the global economy had lessened. He saw improvements in Europe, Japan, and the United States. He praised the US Federal Reserve for its policies, which he thought would help stock markets for a few more years.
In early 2017, Roubini thought that Donald Trump becoming president might lead to less globalization and more isolation. He felt this could cause global instability and more conflicts between countries.
Roubini spoke to a US Senate Banking Committee in 2018. He criticized Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In November 2019, he wrote an article called "Nine Reasons Why the Stock Markets Are Far Too Optimistic."
2020 Global Outlook
On February 17, 2020, he warned of financial weaknesses that could cause big economic and political problems. Two days later, the market reached its peak before the 2020 stock market crash. After a small drop, Roubini warned on February 24 that markets were still too calm about the coronavirus. He predicted a government response, followed by a positive market reaction that would then fade.
Views on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency
Roubini is a frequent critic of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. He has stated that most cryptocurrencies are not valuable and have lost much of their worth. He sees the idea behind blockchain technology as a belief system that opposes governments, banks, and traditional money. Roubini believes that cryptocurrencies are driven by greed.
In 2018, he told Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin to "just shut up." In 2019, Roubini also criticized BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.
Consulting Work
In 2005, Roubini started Roubini Global Economics. This was a small company that gave economic advice and financial analysis. He said he created it to gather information about what was happening around the world. In 2011, the company was not making a profit. Roubini said that in this business, you have to be right every day. He closed the firm in 2016.
In 2017, he started Roubini Macro Associates, another economic consulting firm in New York. He is also the Chief Economist for Atlas Capital Team LP. Additionally, he is a co-founder of Rosa & Roubini Associates.
Personal Life
Journalist Helaine Olen described Roubini as having an accent that reminds her of a "James Bond villain." The Financial Times noted that his serious and negative manner feels different from how most people cope. New York Times journalist Stephen Mihm wrote that Roubini often looks pained and rarely smiles.
He speaks English, Persian, Italian, and Hebrew, and can have conversations in French. Roubini calls himself a "global nomad." He believes that while you can learn about other cultures online, nothing beats visiting a different country.
Roubini is a US citizen. He is identified as a Democrat. In early 2014, he announced that he started practicing Transcendental Meditation. He does not have children.
Writings
- 2022: MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them, Little Brown
- 2010: Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance, Penguin Press
- 2006: (editor with Marc Uzan) New International Financial Architecture, Edward Elgar Publishing
- 2004: (with Brad Setser) Bailouts or Bail-ins? Responding to Financial Crises in Emerging Economies, Peterson Institute
- 1997: (with Alberto Alesina & Gerald D. Cohen) Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy, MIT Press
Images for kids
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Roubini at a Global Governance event in Mexico City, 2012
See also
In Spanish: Nouriel Roubini para niños
