Climate model facts for kids

Climate models use science and math to study Earth's climate system. They look at data like sunlight and ocean heat to simulate weather patterns, such as storms and heatwaves. These models help scientists understand climate change.

A climate model is a computer program that simulates Earth's climate. These models use mathematics and physics to understand how the atmosphere, oceans, land, and ice interact with each other. Scientists use them to study the current weather and to predict how the climate might change in the future.

Climate models are like virtual versions of our planet. They calculate how energy from the Sun heats the Earth and how the Earth sends heat back into space. If there is a balance, the temperature stays the same. If there is an imbalance, the temperature changes. This helps explain the greenhouse effect.

There are different types of models. Some are simple and treat the Earth as one big object. Others are very complex and look at tiny details across the whole globe. The most advanced ones are called Earth System Models. These include living things, like forests and tiny ocean creatures, to see how nature affects the climate.

How Climate Models Work

Climate models are based on scientific laws, such as the laws of physics and chemistry. To make the calculations easier, scientists divide the planet into a 3D grid.

The Grid System

Scientists divide the Earth into a 3-dimensional grid. They use math equations in each box of the grid to calculate things like wind, heat, and humidity.

Imagine covering the Earth with a giant net. This creates many small boxes or "grid cells."

• Atmospheric models look at the air in these boxes. They calculate wind, heat, sunlight, and humidity.
• Oceanic models look at the water. They study ocean currents and how the ocean stores heat.
• Land and Ice models look at the ground and the frozen parts of Earth, like glaciers.

The computer calculates what happens in each box and how it affects the boxes next to it. For example, wind might move heat from one box to another.

Types of Models

Scientists use different models depending on what they want to study.

Simple Energy Balance Models

These models focus on the balance between the energy coming from the Sun and the energy leaving Earth.

• Zero-dimensional models: These treat the Earth as a single point in space. They are useful for understanding the basic temperature of the planet but do not show weather patterns.
• Radiative-convective models: These look at how heat moves up and down in the atmosphere. They help explain how greenhouse gases trap heat near the surface.

Complex General Circulation Models

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are much more detailed. They simulate the flow of the atmosphere and oceans across the entire planet. They solve complex math equations to show how air and water move around the globe.

Earth System Models

These are the most advanced models. They include everything in GCMs plus other factors like:

• Biology: How plants and animals affect the carbon cycle.
• Chemistry: How chemicals in the air change over time.
• Land use: How farming and cities change the land surface.

Uses of Climate Models

Climate models are essential tools for understanding our world.

Predicting Future Climate

Scientists use models to see what might happen to Earth's climate in the future. They can simulate what happens if we add more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. This helps leaders make decisions about how to adapt to climate change.

Understanding Extreme Weather

Models help scientists study extreme weather, such as hurricanes, heatwaves, and floods. This is called extreme event attribution. It helps determine if human activities made a specific weather event stronger or more likely to happen.

History and Development

Climate modeling has changed a lot over the last 100 years.

Early Models

In the late 19th century, scientists made the first simple calculations about Earth's energy balance. In the 1960s, as computers became powerful enough, scientists began to create 3D simulations of the atmosphere.

Improving Accuracy

Climate models have become much better at matching real observations over time.

Over time, models have become much more accurate. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is a global effort where scientists compare different models to improve them. By 2010, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that they had high confidence in these models because they could accurately reproduce past climate changes.

Challenges and Technology

Running these models requires huge amounts of computing power.

Supercomputers

Scientists use some of the fastest computers in the world, called supercomputers, to run climate models. These computers can do billions of calculations every second.

• Energy Use: These powerful computers use a lot of electricity. For example, the Frontier supercomputer can use as much power as a small town.
• Speed: Even with supercomputers, simulating a century of climate can take a long time.

Handling Small Details

Some things, like individual clouds, are too small for the grid boxes in a global model. Scientists use a method called "parameterization" to estimate the effects of these small details based on averages.

See also

• Atmospheric model
• Climate change
• Meteorology
• Supercomputer
• Weather forecasting