Futures studies facts for kids

Kids Encyclopedia Facts

Futures studies, also called futures research or futurology, is a way of looking at how society and technology might change in the future. It's like being a detective for what's next! People who study the future often try to figure out how we might live and work. They use different methods, like looking at past trends, but they also focus on exploring many possible futures, not just one.

This field is a bit like a part of social sciences and an extension of history. Futures studies tries to understand what will likely stay the same and what could change. So, it looks at the past and present to find patterns, then explores what might happen in the future.

Unlike studying a small, specific system, futures studies looks at the whole complex world. It's a newer field, and people sometimes debate if it's an art or a science. But you can now study it in universities, and there's even a World Futures Day on December 2nd to encourage discussions about the future!

What is Futures Studies?

Moore's law is an example of futures studies. It looks at past and present trends to guess future trends in technology.

Futures studies is a field that brings together different areas of knowledge. It collects and looks at trends, using both everyday and expert methods, to imagine possible futures. This includes looking at why things change or stay the same, to help us see what's coming.

Around the world, this field has many names, like futures studies, strategic foresight, and futures thinking. In English, "futures studies" and "strategic foresight" are the most common names used in schools.

The word "foresight" was first used by H.G. Wells in 1932. The term "futurology" was created by a German professor named Ossip K. Flechtheim in the 1940s. He thought it would be a new way to study what might happen. However, today, many experts prefer "futures studies" because they believe there isn't just one future. Instead, there are many possible, likely, and desired futures. They also know it's hard to predict everything perfectly.

Futures studies is different from other fields in three main ways:

It looks at trends to imagine possible, likely, and desired futures. It also considers "wild cards," which are unexpected events that can change everything.
It tries to get a complete picture by using ideas from many different subjects. It often focuses on STEEP categories: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political.
It questions the hidden ideas behind common beliefs about the future. For example, some people think Earth's environment will collapse, while others believe it will last forever. Futures studies helps us understand the ideas behind these different views.

This field also helps turn ideas into action. It's not just about thinking about the future; it's about making plans and taking steps to create a better future. This helps organizations get ready for what's next.

Futures studies doesn't usually focus on short-term predictions, like interest rates next month. It also doesn't focus on typical business plans that look only one to three years ahead. Instead, it looks at medium and long-term changes that have a big impact, not just small, gradual ones.

To do a futures study, you first pick a topic to explore. This topic is the main idea of your project. It helps you decide what you will and won't research. Futures experts look at current STEEP environments to find normal trends, called baselines. Then, they use scenarios to explore different future outcomes. Scenarios show how the future could be different:

Collapse Scenarios: What if the current STEEP trends fall apart? How would that affect society?
Transformation Scenarios: What if society changes into a completely new state? How would STEEP categories be affected?
New Equilibrium: What if the basic structure of society changes to a "new normal" within the same overall system?

History of Futures Thinking

Early Ideas

This picture shows the Tableau Economique by François Quesnay from 1759. It was an early attempt to model an entire economy.

People have always tried to understand the future. Ancient thinkers like Sima Qian (in China) and Ibn Khaldun (in North Africa) looked for big patterns in history. In the West, Thomas More wrote Utopia in 1516, imagining a future society without poverty.

In the 17th century, new math ideas helped people think about statistics and probabilities. In the 18th century, economists like François Quesnay tried to create math models of the whole economy to plan future production.

The Industrial Revolution brought big changes. In 1798, Thomas Malthus wrote about population growth and worried about human survival, which was an early idea of a "dystopia" (a bad future). Later, thinkers like Auguste Comte and Herbert Spencer developed ideas about how societies evolve. By the late 1800s, many people believed in human progress and science, and science fiction became popular.

20th Century Developments

H. G. Wells helped create "true science fiction" around 1900, using scientific knowledge to imagine the future. After World War I, people became more interested in using statistics to predict the future. In the United States, President Herbert Hoover set up a committee in 1929 to study social trends and project them into the future.

After World War II, governments started using planning and forecasts more. The RAND Corporation was created in 1945 to help the US military plan for the future. In the 1960s, as the Cold War continued, people started questioning the idea of "one predictable future."

Futures Research in the 1960s

In the 1960s, new ways of studying the future were developed in Europe. Thinkers like Bertrand de Jouvenel and Johan Galtung focused on human-centered methods. They challenged the idea that there was only one future we could predict. Instead, they believed there were many possible futures that could be shaped.

Futures studies became a real academic field. At a conference in Oslo in 1967, researchers discussed topics like city growth, hunger, and education. In 1968, Olaf Helmer from the RAND Corporation said, "One begins to realize that there is a wealth of possible futures." This meant that future studies could estimate, forecast, and even influence many different futures.

The World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) was formed in 1967 to connect experts worldwide. The first university programs in futures studies started in the US in the late 1960s and 1970s.

Further Development

In 1970, Alvin & Heidi Toffler's book Future Shock made futures studies popular. It talked about how fast society was changing, describing it in "waves": the first was farming, the second was industry, and the third was the new "information society." In the 1970s, futures studies focused less on Cold War scenarios and more on the impact of globalization. Groups like the Club of Rome used computer simulations to show how economic and population growth could lead to problems, which helped put climate change on the political agenda.

In the 1990s, futures studies grew even more, especially with the United Nations' Millennium Development Goals. Many countries started "technology foresight" programs to guide their science and technology plans. "Foresight" became a common term, focusing on gathering evidence to understand future challenges and opportunities.

By the 1990s, experts like Wendell Bell and Ziauddin Sardar tried to create a clear framework for the field of futures studies.

Forecasting and Futures Techniques

Futures techniques are like tools for understanding information about the future. There isn't one perfect method for all research. Experts often choose techniques based on their experience.

This chart shows how to classify a phenomenon as a scenario in the Intuitive Logics tradition.

Scenarios are a key tool in futures studies. They are often confused with other techniques. Futurists use many methods, including:

Prediction markets: Where people bet on future events.
Causal layered analysis (CLA): Looking at different layers of a problem.
Environmental scanning: Searching for clues about the future.
Horizon scanning: Looking for new and emerging issues.
Scenario method: Creating different stories about how the future might unfold.
Delphi method: Asking experts for their opinions, often anonymously.
Backcasting: Imagining a desired future and working backward to see how to get there.
Trend analysis: Studying how things have changed over time to guess future changes.
Technology forecasting: Predicting how technology will develop.

Shaping Alternative Futures

Futurists use scenarios – different possible futures – as an important tool. People can decide what they think is likely or desirable using different methods. By looking at many possibilities, we get closer to shaping the future, rather than just predicting it.

Creating scenarios involves many steps and can be based on evidence. Scenarios can even explore unlikely events that might otherwise be ignored. However, to be believable, they shouldn't be completely perfect or completely terrible. One step is to study emerging issues like megatrends, trends, and weak signals.

Megatrends are big, long-term changes that happen slowly and are often connected. They can't be changed quickly.
Trends show an increase or decrease in something. A true trend lasts a long time, affects many groups, grows slowly, and has a deep reason.
A fad is short-term, changes quickly, affects specific groups, and spreads fast but not deeply.

Futurists have had mixed success with predictions. In the 1950s, many predicted common space tourism by 2000 but missed the rise of cheap computers. On the other hand, some forecasts have been quite accurate.

Because of this, the field has tried to move away from just predicting. Today, futurists often show many different scenarios. This helps people and organizations prepare with flexibility. Many companies use futurists for risk management, to look for new issues, and to spot "wild cards" – events that are unlikely but could have a huge impact. Understanding many possibilities helps us see opportunities and threats better.

Weak Signals, Future Signs, and Wild Cards

In futures research, "weak signals" are early, small clues of change in trends or systems. They are like raw information that can help us prepare for what's coming. There can be some confusion about what a weak signal is. It's sometimes seen as future information or an emerging issue. The idea of a "future sign" helps by separating the signal, the issue, and how we understand it.

A weak signal can be an early sign of change. For example, in 2012, hundreds of people protested against genetically modified wheat in the UK. This was a weak signal that people were starting to feel against genetically modified foods. By 2013, when a big food store required labeling of GMOs, this idea had become a trend and was widely known.

"Wild cards" are events that are very unlikely but have a huge impact. They happen quickly and have big consequences, so fast that society can't react well. Wild cards are not new, but they are happening more often, partly because things are changing faster. There are different types of wild cards, but it's especially important to watch for those that are likely to happen but people don't believe will happen until they see them. Climate change is an example. It went from being seen as unlikely to very likely, but some people still don't accept it until they see major effects.

Wild cards might or might not be announced by weak signals. Sometimes, people mistakenly think wild cards and weak signals are the same, but they are not. A famous wild card event was 9/11. Nothing like it had happened before, but it had a huge impact on daily life in the United States. Wild card events can also be natural disasters, like Hurricane Katrina, which forced many people to move and disrupted businesses. Even though wild cards can't be predicted, after they happen, it's often easy to explain why they occurred.

Near-Term Predictions

Many cultures and media outlets have a tradition of making predictions for the upcoming year. These predictions are meant to make people think. They are sometimes based on current trends in music, movies, fashion, or politics. Sometimes, they are just hopeful guesses about big events. Some predictions come true, but many don't. When they fail, people might say they misunderstood the "signs."

Marketers are also using futures studies more to keep up in a fast-paced market. They use techniques like "trendspotting" to identify new trends.

Education in Futures Studies

Learning about futures studies has been happening for a while, starting in the United States in the 1960s. Futures education helps students think long-term, consider consequences, and use their imagination. It helps them:

Imagine fairer and more sustainable futures for people and the planet.
Learn about methods and tools to understand, map, and influence the future.
Understand how human, social, and environmental systems affect different futures.
Feel responsible and take action to create better futures.

Many universities around the world now teach futures studies. These range from a few classes to full master's and doctoral programs. For example, Tamkang University in Taiwan has a required undergraduate course in futures studies for thousands of students each year. The University of Houston has a Master's program called Foresight, which trains professional futurists.

Organizations like the World Future Society and Teach the Future also work to advance futures education, especially for younger students. They create lesson plans that help kids learn about futures thinking through activities, games, and scenario building.

How Foresight is Used

General Uses

Many companies and governments use foresight to understand possible risks and prepare for opportunities. For example, the US Congressional Budget Office makes long-term budget predictions, and the UK Government Office for Science publishes material about future trends. This information helps leaders make policy decisions and plan for the long term. Companies, especially those that develop products over many years, use foresight to create their business plans. Foresight experts help leaders deal with a world that is becoming more complex and connected.

Government Agencies

Several governments have special agencies for strategic foresight to help with long-term planning for society. Some of the most well-known are in Singapore, Finland, and the United Arab Emirates.

Singapore's Centre for Strategic Futures helps its government deal with new challenges and opportunities.
Finland has included strategic foresight in its parliament and Prime Minister's Office since the 1990s. The government must present a "Report of the Future" every time parliament meets.
In the United Arab Emirates, all government ministries were asked to appoint "Directors of Future Planning" in 2016. The goal is to predict the nation's future, prepare for challenges, and find opportunities.
In 2018, the United States General Accountability Office (GAO) created the Center for Strategic Foresight to help identify and analyze new issues for policymakers.

Futurists

Futurists are people who work in the foresight field. They help organizations and individuals imagine different futures so they can prepare and make the most of opportunities. A foresight project starts with a question about the future of a topic, like technology or business. Futurists look for clues about change and new trends. They do this by checking social media, reading reports, talking to experts, and analyzing data. Then, they use special methods to create many different future scenarios for the topic. The benefit of having many possible futures, instead of just one prediction, is that it helps clients make long-term plans that can work well in different situations.

Important Books on the Future

The Association for Professional Futurists recognizes important works that help us understand the future. Here are some of them:

Bertrand de Jouvenel - L’Art de la conjecture (The Art of Conjecture)
Donella Meadows - The Limits to Growth
Peter Schwartz - The Art of the Long View
Ray Kurzweil - The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence
Jerome C. Glenn & Theodore J. Gordon - Futures Research Methodology Version 2.0
Jared Diamond - Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed
Richard Slaughter - The Biggest Wake up Call in History
Nassim Nicholas Taleb - The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Jørgen Randers - 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years
Andy Hines & Peter C. Bishop - Teaching About the Future
James A. Dator - Advancing Futures - Futures Studies in Higher Education
Ziauddin Sardar - Future: All that Matters
Sohail Inayatullah - What Works: Case Studies in the Practice of Foresight
Dougal Dixon - After Man: A Zoology of the Future

Other notable books include:

Four Futures: Life After Capitalism by Peter Frase
Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100 by Michio Kaku
The Future of the Mind: The Scientific Quest to Understand, Enhance, and Empower the Mind by Michio Kaku
The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology by Ray Kurzweil
Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think by Peter Diamandis
Brave New World by Aldous Huxley
The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century by George Friedman
Future Shock by Alvin & Heidi Toffler
The Third Wave by Alvin & Heidi Toffler
Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow by Yuval Noah Harari

Science Fiction and the Future

Wendell Bell and Ed Cornish say that science fiction helps inspire futures studies by creating visions of tomorrow. Science fiction can show us "imaginative social visions" that contribute to how we think about the future. Good science fiction presents believable, possible scenarios.

While science fiction can be inspiring, it's not the same as futures studies. Most science fiction stories show only one possible future, unless they deal with multiple timelines. However, some science fiction authors, like Kim Stanley Robinson with his Mars Trilogy (which looks two centuries ahead at terraforming Mars), can explore very long time scales.

Some science fiction writers are also professional futurists, like David Brin. Many ideas in technology and society have been inspired by early science fiction writers like Jules Verne and H.G. Wells. Futurists have also influenced movies and TV shows. For example, the movie Minority Report used futurists as consultants to create a realistic vision of the future. Shows like Westworld and Black Mirror also use ideas from futures studies to build their worlds and stories.

Brian David Johnson is a futurist who uses science fiction to help build the future. He calls his work "future casting," where he uses research and even science fiction to imagine how people and technology will interact. He has a guide called "Science Fiction Prototyping" that helps people design the future using science fiction. It has five parts: 1. Pick a science idea and build an imaginative world around it. 2. Find the scientific turning point. 3. Think about the good or bad consequences of the science on people and the world. 4. Find the human turning point. 5. Reflect on what you learned.

Organizations that Study the Future

Professional Networks

World Future Society
World Futures Studies Federation
Association of Professional Futurists
The Millennium Project

Government Foresight Organizations

National Intelligence Council (USA)
NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (USA)
Government Office for Science (United Kingdom)
MiGHT - Malaysian Industry Government Group for High Technology

Non-Governmental Foresight Organizations

RAND Corporation
Hudson Institute
Club of Rome
Institute for the Future
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
The Venus Project
Long Now Foundation
Future of Humanity Institute
World Future Council (Germany)