American decline facts for kids
The idea of American decline is about whether the United States is losing its power and influence around the world. This can be in areas like its military strength, money, economy, population, society, culture, healthcare, or even environmental efforts. People who believe America is declining are called declinists.
China becoming a stronger global player is a big part of this discussion. The United States is no longer the only "superpower" (a country with huge global influence) in many parts of the world. For example, in Asia, the U.S. is still strong in military power, cultural influence, and diplomacy. But it falls behind China in economic strength and trade relationships.
Some reasons linked to the idea of American decline include its military advantages shrinking, spending more money than it takes in (deficit spending), getting too involved in global conflicts, and changes in social and cultural conditions.
Some experts say that the idea of America declining has been around for a long time. A 2021 survey found that nearly 8 out of 10 Americans felt the country was "falling apart."
Contents
Understanding American Decline
Many people have different ideas about when and why America might be seen as declining.
Historical Views on Decline
According to public thinker Noam Chomsky, America's decline began after World War II. He points to events like the "loss of China" and the Indochina Wars. By 1970, the U.S. share of the world's wealth had dropped to about 25%. Chomsky also believes that the idea of America being super powerful in the 1990s was mostly just people fooling themselves. However, he also said in 2011 that countries like China and India won't become global superpowers soon because they have many internal problems.
Jeet Heer says that the U.S. has always been powerful because of three main things: its strong economy, its military might, and its cultural influence. Diplomat Eric S. Edelman believes that those who predicted America's decline in the past have been wrong. But political scientist Aaron Friedberg warns that just because they were wrong before doesn't mean they will always be wrong in the future. He thinks some of their arguments should be taken seriously.
Political scientist Matthew Kroenig explains that since 1945, the U.S. has followed a simple plan:
- First, it helped build a global system based on rules.
- Second, it welcomed countries into this system if they followed the rules, even former enemies.
- Third, the U.S. worked with its allies to protect this system from those who challenged it.
Military Strength and Spending
A report from the National Defense Strategy Commission stated that America's military advantages have become smaller. It also said that the country has very little room for error in its defense. The report mentioned "political problems" and "budget limits" as reasons why the government struggles to keep up with new threats. It also noted that China and Russia are building up their militaries to challenge American strength. In 2018, Air Force General Frank Gorenc said that the U.S. airpower advantage over Russia and China was shrinking.
Government Spending and Debt
Historian Paul Kennedy suggests that spending too much money, especially on the military, is the main reason great powers decline. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have cost trillions of dollars. Kennedy believes this was a major win for Osama bin Laden, who wanted to show that America was afraid of casualties and didn't want to stay in long conflicts. By 2011, the U.S. military budget was higher than at any time since World War II, almost matching the rest of the world's military spending combined.
Kennedy wrote about American decline in his 1989 book, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. He suggested that the U.S. would need to manage its affairs so that its power would slowly and smoothly decrease. However, his book came out before the Soviet Union collapsed and before Japan's economy faced major problems. This left the United States as the world's only superpower.
Global Military Presence
Historian Emmanuel Todd suggests that increasing military activity and aggression might look like a country is gaining power, but it can actually hide a decline. He saw this happen with the Soviet Union in the 1970s and with the Roman Empire. He thinks the United States might be going through a similar time.
In 2005, the U.S. had 38 large and medium-sized military bases around the world. This is about the same number as Britain had at the peak of its empire in 1898. Paul Kennedy compares the U.S. situation to Great Britain before World War I.
Cultural Changes
Some experts, like Allan Bloom and Samuel P. Huntington, have talked about a decline in American culture. Huntington noted that predictions of decline have been common in American culture and politics since the late 1950s. He saw these predictions appear in waves, such as after the Soviet Union launched Sputnik, during the Vietnam War, after the 1973 oil crisis, and at the end of the Cold War.
William J. Bennett argued that changes in American culture show a shift in public attitudes and beliefs. A 1993 report called the Index of Leading Cultural Indicators looked at social conditions in America. It suggested that cultural conditions were declining compared to 30 years earlier.
Kenneth Weisbrode points out that while some numbers might suggest American decline, Americans have had a "low culture" for a long time. He believes that worrying about decline is not new and has been part of American thinking since the early days of the country.
Daniel Bell also argued that the idea of decline is part of American culture. He said that these worries often come from deep feelings within society, rather than just from economic or political facts.
Journalists and historians have noted that warnings of American decline are not new. In the 20th century, these warnings came in several waves. Thomas L. Friedman and Michael Mandelbaum wrote in 2011 that the U.S. was in its "fifth wave of Declinism." The first was the "Sputnik Shock" in 1957, followed by the Vietnam War, President Jimmy Carter's "malaise" and the rise of Japan, and then the increased power of China.
Political Divisions
Many experts and surveys have noticed that political divisions in the U.S. have grown stronger.
Some researchers connect this trend to growing economic inequality and economic problems. David Leonhardt writes that for many Americans, incomes, wealth, and life expectancy have not improved much. This has led to an angry mood and made political divisions worse. He says this results in a government that doesn't work well, which reduces America's advantages over China.
Researchers from the University of Oxford found that social media played a big role in political division in the U.S. This is because of "computational propaganda," which uses computer programs and data to manipulate public opinion. This includes the spread of fake news and conspiracy theories. They highlighted how the Russian Internet Research Agency tried to weaken democracy in the U.S. and make existing political divisions worse.
Michael McFaul, a former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, believes that U.S. democracy has declined. He blames this on extreme political differences among leaders and former President Donald Trump's actions, which damaged trust in elections and relationships with democratic allies. McFaul says that a decline in democracy weakens national security and limits foreign policy.
Surveys in 2021 showed that a significant number of both Republicans and Democrats felt it was okay to use violence for political goals. This was a big increase from 2017. Also, more than 80% of people from both parties believed the other party was a "clear and present danger to American democracy."
Economic Trends
By 1970, the U.S. share of world production had dropped from 40% to 25%. Economist Jeffrey Sachs noted that the U.S. share of world income fell from 24.6% in 1980 to 19.1% in 2011. The difference between what company CEOs earned and what average workers earned also grew a lot. In 1965, CEOs made 24 times more than workers, but by 2005, they made 262 times more. By 2018, income inequality in the U.S. was the highest ever recorded by the United States Census Bureau.
Some believe that America's financial problems come from rising spending on social programs or from the high costs of wars. However, Richard Lachmann argues that if military spending isn't hurting the U.S. economy, it wouldn't cause decline. Lachmann says the real problem is how government money is used, with resources being taken away from things that help maintain economic or global power. Kennedy argues that as military costs grow, less money is invested in economic growth. This can lead to slower growth, higher taxes, disagreements over spending, and a weaker ability to pay for defense.
Competition with China
The rise of China is a central topic in the discussion about American decline.
Key Differences and Debates
China is now challenging the United States for global leadership. The U.S. is no longer the only country that dominates in every area, like military, culture, economy, technology, and diplomacy, in every part of the world. The 2021 Asia Power Index shows that in Asia, the U.S. leads in military power, cultural influence, and diplomacy. But China is ahead in economic strength and trade relationships.
In 2020, China signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which is the world's largest free trade agreement. Some thought the U.S. would be a "big loser" from this deal. However, others said the tariff changes from the deal would be small.
China also traded more with the European Union than the U.S. did for the first time in 2020. In December, the EU and China agreed on a major investment deal. Some analysts said this deal might hurt relations with the U.S.
In 2020, China also received more foreign direct investment (money invested by foreign companies) than the U.S. for the second time. Daniel Rosen, an expert on U.S.-China economic ties, said it's normal for foreign investment to drop in the U.S. during unusual times because of its open market. He believes there's no need to worry about U.S. foreign investment as long as the U.S. keeps its open market system.
Political scientist Matthew Kroenig argues that the idea of China's authoritarian government being better at long-term planning than the U.S. is not supported by history. Kroenig believes that open societies (like democracies) encourage new ideas, trust in financial markets, and economic growth. He also points out that China's big plans, like the Belt and Road Initiative, are quite new and haven't been around long enough to be called brilliant examples of long-term planning.
David Leonhardt notes that China has made big progress in other areas too. It's close to becoming the world's top spender on scientific research and development, while U.S. spending has grown slowly. However, Barry Naughton points out that the average income in China is still much lower than in the U.S. He questions whether it makes sense for a middle-income country like China to spend so much on developing new technologies.
Former Prime Minister of Australia Kevin Rudd says that China has many internal problems that are often not reported. On the other hand, the U.S. always shows its weaknesses publicly but has often shown it can recover and change. Ryan Hass, an expert at the Brookings Institution, says that much of the story about China rising and overtaking the U.S. is spread by China's state media. He advises U.S. leaders to tell the difference between China's public image and its real challenges.
Economist Scott Rozelle and researcher Natalie Hell warn that China might face serious problems because of its low high school graduation rates. They say that no country has become a high-income country with less than 50% of its population finishing high school. China's rate is only 30%. They also point to a big gap in education between cities and rural areas in China.
Ryan Hass also notes that China's working-age population is already shrinking. He says that by 2050, China will have only two workers for every retiree, compared to eight workers now. Nicholas Eberstadt, an economist, believes that current population trends will greatly affect China's economy and global power, making its rise less certain.
Foreign Policy Approaches
In May 2020, the Trump administration released a report called "U.S. Strategic Approach to the People's Republic of China." This report stated that the U.S. needed to "rethink the failed policies of the past two decades." It said that the U.S. now sees a long-term competition between its system and China's.
In February 2021, President Joe Biden called China the "most serious competitor" that challenges U.S. values and security. Secretary of State Antony Blinken agreed that past hopeful approaches to China were wrong. He also said that Trump was "right in taking a tougher approach to China." In April 2021, the United States Senate introduced a major bill to counter China's growing global influence. This bill, called the "Strategic Competition Act of 2021," showed that both Democrats and Republicans in Congress have a tough stance on China.
In May 2021, this act was combined into a larger bill, the United States Innovation and Competition Act (USICA). This bill would provide billions of dollars for technology research. In June 2021, the USICA passed in the Senate with support from both parties.
Comparing with Past Empires
Some experts compare the U.S. situation to that of earlier great powers.
Samuel P. Huntington noted that predictions of American decline have been part of American politics since the late 1950s. He believed that even though these predictions often seemed wrong, they helped prevent America's power from actually shrinking.
Michael Hudson points out that ancient empires sometimes survived by forgiving debts. He says that this practice ended with the Roman Empire, leading to poverty and loss of land for farmers. He suggests that the same process contributed to the collapse of the British Empire and continues today, with financial crises that are only solved by government bailouts or wars. Hudson believes that the U.S. is being harmed by bank debt without a way to forgive it, making collapse seem unavoidable.
Political scientist Paul K. MacDonald explains that great powers can decline in two ways: relatively (others grow faster) or absolutely (they shrink). He notes that they often respond by reducing some of their global commitments.
Lessons from Rome
Some commentators and historians believe the U.S. is similar to the Roman Empire. Kristofer Allerfeldt says that there are different opinions on this comparison. He thinks that using the "Roman metaphor" often helps people express their hopes and fears in a scholarly way.
Lessons from Britain
Paul Kennedy argues that Britain's financial strength was key to its victories over France in the 18th century. He predicts that as the U.S. dollar loses its role as the world's main currency, the U.S. will not be able to keep paying for its military spending by borrowing money.
Richard Lachmann suggests that the U.S. would last much longer if, like Britain, it could stop certain families and powerful groups from controlling government positions.
Lessons from the Soviet Union
Historian Harold James wrote in 2020 that many parts of the U.S. now resemble the late Soviet Union. He pointed to growing social conflict, ethnic rivalries, and economic problems. He predicted that the dollar might lose its value, like the Soviet ruble. James concluded that economic decline would continue in the U.S., even with a change in leadership, similar to how Mikhail Gorbachev couldn't prevent the Soviet collapse.
Also in 2020, political commentator Julius Krein argued that America's ongoing decline is similar to the late Soviet Union's "unmistakable" slide into a system ruled by very old leaders.
Alex Lo, a columnist, wrote in 2021 that the Soviet Union under Mikhail Gorbachev didn't realize it had lost its empire until it was too late. He suggested the U.S. might face a similar fate.
What Experts Say
- Philosophers Michael Hardt and Antonio Negri wrote in the mid-1990s about a shift towards a new global power structure they called "Empire".
- American historian Morris Berman wrote a series of books between 2000 and 2011 about the decline of American civilization.
- Igor Panarin, a Russian political scientist, predicted that the U.S. would break into six parts by 2010.
- Russian political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky predicted that America might face self-destructive violence and collapse.
- American journalist Chris Hedges predicted in his 2018 book that America would stop being the dominant superpower within a decade or two.
- Evan Osnos of The New Yorker described a possible scenario for a violent revolution in the U.S. and its effects on the very rich.
- Donald Trump was the first presidential candidate to openly say that the United States was in decline.
- After the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot, a reporter wrote that the event showed "4 Years Of American Decline."
- Jean Chrétien, former Prime Minister of Canada, called Trump's election a "monumental error" that signaled "the true end of the American empire."
- The American think tank Atlantic Council agrees that the U.S. is declining but calls thinking it's irreversible "irrational pessimism."
- The Intercept suggested that many countries choosing to stay neutral during the Ukraine invasion could mean a big shift away from Western global dominance in politics, culture, and ideas.
Public Opinion
Surveys show how people around the world and within the U.S. feel about America's standing.
In 2018, polls showed that U.S. leadership was seen as less popular than China's, with Germany being the most popular global power.
A 2019 survey by Pew Research Center found that most Americans expected the U.S. economy to be weaker by 2050. They also thought the U.S. would have a growing national debt, a bigger gap between rich and poor, and a workforce threatened by automation.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, public opinion of both the United States and China worsened in most countries surveyed by Pew Research. While the U.S. was generally viewed more favorably than China, opinions on how both countries handled the pandemic were negative, though China's handling was seen slightly better.
A January 2021 survey of people in ASEAN countries found that over 60% would choose the U.S. over China if they had to pick sides in the rivalry. Support for the U.S. had increased from the previous year.
In a 2021 poll of Americans after the riot at the Capitol, nearly 80% said America was "falling apart." At the same time, a similar number of people said they were "proud to be an American."
In late January 2021, Pew reported that international opinion of the United States in Europe improved significantly as Joe Biden became president. Optimism about U.S. relations rose in Britain, France, and Germany.
A January 2022 poll found that over 70% of U.S. people believed democracy was "in crisis and at risk of failing."
Images for kids
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Countries with United States military bases and facilities in 2016
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Largest economies by nominal GDP in 2020.png
Largest economies by nominal GDP in 2020
See also
In Spanish: Decadencia de los Estados Unidos para niños
