Percentages agreement facts for kids

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The Percentages Agreement was a secret deal made during World War II. It happened in October 1944 between British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and Soviet leader Joseph Stalin. They met at the Fourth Moscow Conference. This agreement decided how much control each country would have over different nations in Eastern Europe. It was like drawing lines on a map to show who had more influence. Franklin Roosevelt, the US President, was told about it and agreed to it, but the US ambassador was not part of the secret talks. Churchill first told the world about this agreement in 1953 in his book about the war.

Why Churchill Wanted a Deal
Eastern Europe's Future
- Churchill Asks Roosevelt for Help
The War Situation in 1944
- Soviet Army Advances
- Autumn of 1944
The Agreement Details
- Other Topics in October 1944
Disagreement Over Bulgaria
- US Views on the Agreement
What Historians Say
What Happened Next
- Churchill's Later Thoughts
Images for kids
See also

Why Churchill Wanted a Deal

During World War II, Britain used up most of its money fighting. Churchill knew that after the war, the Soviet Union would be much stronger, and Britain would be weaker. He worried that the United States might not want to be involved in Europe anymore. This would leave Britain alone to face the powerful Soviet Union.

Churchill wanted a secret agreement with Stalin to make sure the world stayed stable after the war. He also wanted to protect Britain's interests. He was very concerned about the Mediterranean Sea. He did not want Communist governments to take power in countries like Italy, Greece, and Yugoslavia. He thought this would let the Soviet Union build military bases there. These bases could threaten British ships.

The Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea were super important shipping routes. They connected Britain to its colonies in Asia, like India, and to countries like Australia and New Zealand. Oil from the Middle East also came through these routes. So, Churchill wanted Britain to control the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean. This meant keeping countries along the sea lanes, like Italy and Greece, under British influence.

However, during the war, Italy, Greece, and Yugoslavia had many people who supported Communism. The strongest groups fighting against the Axis powers in these countries were often Communist.

Churchill knew the Soviet Union was doing most of the fighting against Germany. But he also wanted an Anglo-American plan to attack the "soft underbelly" of the Axis. This meant invading through the Mediterranean. He hoped this would stop the Soviet army from moving too far west into Europe. This plan caused arguments with the Americans, who wanted to focus on fighting in Western Europe.

Churchill's plan was to take control of North Africa, then invade Italy. From Italy, they would move into the Balkans. He wanted Allied armies to get as far into Eastern Europe as possible. This was to block the Soviet Red Army from taking over.

Eastern Europe's Future

Churchill also supported plans for Austria and Hungary to join together after the war. He hoped this would limit Soviet influence in Eastern Europe. He was even slow to declare war on Hungary, only doing so when the Soviets pushed him.

In 1942, plans were made for Yugoslavia and Greece to form a group. Another plan was for Poland and Czechoslovakia to form a group. Churchill hoped that an Austro-Hungarian group would link these countries. This would create a large Eastern European super-state. It would stretch from the Baltic Sea to the Mediterranean. This would keep much of Eastern Europe under Western influence.

By 1943, Hungary's Prime Minister, Miklós Kállay, knew the Axis powers would lose. He wanted Hungary to make a peace deal with Britain and the US before the Soviet army arrived. Hungarian diplomats secretly talked with British and American diplomats. They said Hungary no longer wanted to fight with Germany.

On September 9, 1943, a secret peace deal was signed. Hungarian forces would surrender to British and American forces when they arrived. But it was unclear if this included Soviet forces.

Hungary's leaders, who were very conservative, wanted to work with Britain. This made Britain hope that Hungary would be in their sphere of influence after the war.

Bulgaria was allied with Germany. It had gained land from Romania, Greece, and Yugoslavia. In December 1941, Bulgaria declared war on the US and Britain. But it never declared war on the Soviet Union. Many Bulgarians felt close to the Russians, so declaring war would have been very unpopular.

Britain thought Bulgaria would be their responsibility. They did not expect the Soviet Union to declare war on Bulgaria. So, they assumed Bulgaria would be in the British sphere of influence.

Churchill also wanted to keep the kings in Italy and Greece. He thought this was the best way to keep Communists out of power. But the Americans disagreed. They did not like the kings who had supported fascist leaders. President Roosevelt wanted Italy and Greece to become republics. He preferred more liberal leaders.

Since no Soviet forces were fighting in Italy, Churchill worried less about Italian Communists. But Soviet forces were close to Romania. This meant the Soviets would likely enter Romania first. So, in May 1944, British Foreign Secretary Anthony Eden met with the Soviet ambassador. They discussed a deal: Greece would be in Britain's sphere, and Romania in the Soviet Union's.

Yugoslavia was not as important as Italy and Greece to Churchill. But he pushed for a government that would combine Marshal Josip Broz Tito's government with the Yugoslav government-in-exile. Churchill hoped Stalin could convince Tito to accept King Peter II. He believed keeping the king would keep Yugoslavia partly in Britain's sphere.

British policy for Greece was clear: "our long-term policy towards Greece is to retain her in the British sphere of influence." They did not want a Russian-controlled Greece. The main resistance group in Greece was the Communist-led EAM. Britain supported EAM to tie down German forces. But they also wanted to stop EAM from taking power. They wanted the Greek government-in-exile to return. Churchill really wanted an agreement with Stalin. He wanted Moscow to accept Greece as being in the British sphere of influence.

Churchill Asks Roosevelt for Help

On May 4, 1944, Churchill asked his Foreign Secretary, "Are we going to allow the Balkans and maybe Italy to become Communist?" Churchill answered his own question: Britain must "fight against the Communist spread."

When they tried to set up spheres of influence in the Balkans, the Soviet ambassador asked if the Americans were included. Eden said the Americans would support it. But the US State Department said no. They said it was against US policy to make such agreements. This was because it would go against the Atlantic Charter, which supported self-determination for all nations.

Churchill then spoke directly to President Roosevelt. Churchill told Roosevelt that the deal was only for wartime. It was not meant to divide the Balkans permanently. But Roosevelt was not convinced. He said on June 11 that the deal would divide the Balkans into spheres of influence. Churchill then asked Roosevelt to let them try the agreement for three months. On June 13, Roosevelt agreed, which turned out to be a very important decision.

The War Situation in 1944

Soviet Army Advances

On June 22, 1944, the Soviet Red Army launched a huge attack called Operation Bagration. Over the next 12 days, they destroyed a large German army group. This created a big gap in the German lines. The Soviets advanced very quickly.

On August 20, 1944, the Red Army launched another big attack into the Balkans. They invaded Romania. Romania's oil was vital for Germany's war effort. Churchill was very worried. His doctor wrote that Churchill was "always talking about the dangers of Communism." He said Churchill thought of the Red Army "spreading like a cancer."

On August 23, 1944, King Michael of Romania fired his pro-German Prime Minister. He signed a peace deal with the Soviets and declared war on Hungary and Germany. King Michael hoped this would save his royal family from being replaced by a Communist government. The German army lost many soldiers trying to hold Romania. Their position in the Balkans was now in danger.

Churchill was fascinated by the Balkans. He saw it as a good place for military operations. He wanted the Allies to land on Yugoslavia's coast. Then they would advance through the Ljubljana Gap in the Alps to reach Austria. This would help Britain claim influence in Eastern Europe after the war.

The Germans fought very hard on the Gothic Line in northern Italy. This slowed the Allied advance. Churchill's plans for the Ljubljana Gap were put on hold. In his book, Churchill criticized the Americans for invading southern France. He believed if those troops had been used in the Balkans, the Allies could have taken Vienna in 1944. This would have stopped the Red Army from capturing it in 1945.

On September 2, 1944, Bulgaria left its alliance with Germany. It declared itself neutral. But on September 5, the Soviet Union declared war on Bulgaria. The Red Army crossed into Bulgaria the same day. The Bulgarians quickly surrendered. They switched sides and declared war on Germany. On September 9, a Communist-led group took power in Bulgaria. On September 15, the Red Army entered Sofia.

The Soviet occupation of Bulgaria put the Red Army on the borders of Yugoslavia, Greece, and Turkey. These countries were all near the Mediterranean shipping routes. Churchill was determined to keep these routes out of Soviet control.

At a meeting in Quebec City in September, Roosevelt again rejected Churchill's plans for the Ljubljana Gap. Roosevelt said the Balkans were not as important as Churchill claimed. He said the Allies should focus on Western Europe. Churchill was also told that the British Army was stretched thin. They did not have enough soldiers for a big operation in the Balkans without American help.

The British were especially worried that Stalin might let Bulgaria keep the land it had taken from Yugoslavia and Greece in 1941. This "Greater Bulgaria" would give Bulgaria a coastline on the Aegean Sea. Even more frightening, the Soviets were letting the Bulgarians stay in these annexed parts of Greece and Yugoslavia. This was because Bulgaria was now a Soviet ally. Churchill feared the Red Army might move south into Greece. This would put the Communist EAM in power.

In desperation, Eden sent a message to the British ambassador in Moscow. He asked the Soviet government not to send troops into Greece without Britain's agreement. After two anxious days, the Soviets agreed. They would honor the May 1944 agreement. Churchill also pushed for Bulgaria to return to its pre-1941 borders.

Autumn of 1944

As the Soviets moved into Bulgaria, they also fought hard in the Carpathian Mountains to enter Hungary. Everyone knew it was only a matter of time before the Soviets reached the Hungarian plains. On September 21, 1944, the Red Army took Arad. Panic broke out in Budapest.

On September 24, 1944, Hungary's leader, Admiral Miklós Horthy, decided to talk secretly with the Soviet Union about a peace deal. He hoped this would save Hungary from a Communist government. He also wanted to keep the part of Transylvania that Hungary had gained. On October 6, 1944, the Battle of Debrecen began. The Red Army reached the Hungarian plain. The Soviet advance towards Budapest was stopped for a short time.

At the same time, the Western Allies were stuck on the Western Front. Their hopes of ending the war by Christmas were gone. The Germans fought back strongly. The Allies needed a major port closer to their front lines. The deeper they went into Europe, the longer their supply lines became. This gave the Germans an advantage.

The British had captured Antwerp, a large port, on September 5, 1944. But Antwerp was useless as long as the Germans controlled the mouth of the Scheldt River. This river connected Antwerp to the North Sea. The Germans had placed mines in the river. It took a difficult and bloody battle in October–November 1944 to clear the river. Antwerp could only be used by the Allies from November 28, 1944. This put Stalin in a strong position for negotiations.

With the Red Army deep in the Balkans, Adolf Hitler decided Greece could not be held. He ordered his forces to leave Greece and go to Yugoslavia. On October 4, 1944, Soviet forces and Yugoslav Partisans took Belgrade. The Soviets did not push towards the Adriatic Sea. Instead, they went up the Danube River towards Budapest. This allowed the German army to escape from Greece. On October 4, 1944, British troops landed in Greece. On October 10, the Germans began to leave Greece.

On October 15, 1944, Horthy signed a peace deal with the Soviet Union. But Hitler had planned for this. German forces took control of Hungary. They removed Horthy and put a new government in power. As the Germans left Greece, the Communist EAM took over. The British found that EAM controlled most of Greece when they landed.

The Agreement Details

Countries	Soviet Control	Western Control
Bulgaria	75% → 80%	25% → 20%
Greece	10%	90%
Hungary	50% → 80%	50% → 20%
Romania	90% → 100%	10% → 0%
Yugoslavia	50%	50%

The meeting between Churchill and Stalin in Moscow started on October 9, 1944. It was mainly because of the situation in Bulgaria. There was a chance of a "Greater Bulgaria" under Soviet influence. Also, it seemed the Red Army might soon occupy all of the Balkans and Hungary. President Roosevelt, who had mostly ignored the Balkans, was now interested. But he was busy with his re-election campaign and could not attend. He asked his ambassador, W. Averell Harriman, to be an observer. But Stalin said Harriman could only attend as Roosevelt's direct representative.

Churchill suggested the agreement. He wanted the UK and USSR to divide Europe into "spheres of influence." One country would have more "predominance" in one area, and the other in another. Churchill still hoped British troops could land in Yugoslavia. This would need cooperation with the Red Army, who were already there. Also, Churchill wanted to keep EAM out of power in Greece. He wanted to convince Stalin to stop supporting EAM. He did not want disagreements about Greece to cause problems between Britain and the Soviet Union.

After talking about Poland, Churchill told Stalin that Romania was "very much a Russian affair." He said the peace deal between the Soviets and Romania was "reasonable." Churchill then said that "Britain must be the leading Mediterranean power." This meant Greece had to be in the British sphere of influence. Stalin seemed to understand Britain's concerns.

They quickly agreed on Greece and Romania. But Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, and Hungary were harder to agree on.

According to Churchill, he suggested that the Soviet Union should have 90% influence in Romania and 75% in Bulgaria. The United Kingdom should have 90% in Greece. They would have 50% each in Hungary and Yugoslavia. Churchill wrote this on a piece of paper and gave it to Stalin. Stalin put a checkmark on it and gave it back. After more talks, the Soviet influence in Bulgaria and Hungary changed to 80%. Romania's influence became 100% Soviet. Churchill called it a "naughty document."

Disagreement Over Bulgaria

The conversation returned to Bulgaria. Stalin claimed that the Red Army was stopping Bulgarian Communists from being too extreme. Stalin said the Soviets did not plan to use Bulgaria to threaten Turkey. He did not want Britain to have any role in Bulgaria. Eden replied that Britain deserved a "small share" since they had been at war with Bulgaria for three years.

Bulgaria became the main problem during a meeting between Eden and Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov. Eden accused the Bulgarians of treating British officers badly in Greece. He wanted the Soviet Union to order them to show respect. Molotov joked that the Soviets had just promised not to interfere in Greek affairs.

The main point became the peace deal with Bulgaria. The peace deals the Soviet Union had signed with Romania and Finland gave power to an Allied Control Commission (ACC). This commission would work "under the general direction and orders" of the Soviet high command. This meant the Soviets had the main say in those countries.

The American plan for Bulgaria's peace deal said the ACC for Bulgaria would be responsible to the "Big Three" powers (US, Britain, USSR). Britain had agreed to this. But Molotov wanted Eden to drop support for the American plan. He wanted Eden to accept the Soviet plan, which was like the Finnish and Romanian deals. Eden refused. Molotov argued that Bulgaria bordered the Black Sea. If Britain had special interests in the Mediterranean, then the Soviet Union had special interests in the Black Sea. He said, "Bulgaria was not Italy, Spain, Greece or even Yugoslavia."

Molotov even hinted that the Soviet Union would agree to divide Yugoslavia. Britain would take the coast, and the Soviet Union the interior. This was if Britain would give up on Bulgaria. On October 11, Molotov offered Eden 20% influence in Bulgaria. He also offered a changed peace deal. It said the ACC in Bulgaria would act on the Soviet High Command's orders, but with the "participation" of the British and American governments. Eden agreed to Molotov's plan. He also agreed that the peace deal with Hungary would be the same as Bulgaria's.

US Views on the Agreement

On October 11, Churchill sent a message to Roosevelt. He wrote that he and Stalin should try to agree on the Balkans. This was to prevent civil war. Churchill said he would keep Roosevelt informed. He said nothing would be final without further discussion with Roosevelt.

The same day, Churchill wrote to Stalin. He said Britain had special ties to King Peter II and King George II of Greece. He said it was a matter of British honor that they be put back on their thrones. But he also said the people of the Balkans should choose their own political system, except fascism. Churchill said the percentages were just "a method by which in our thoughts we can see how near we are together."

When Churchill returned to London on October 12, he told his War Cabinet that the agreement was "only an interim guide for the immediate wartime future."

Churchill argued that giving Romania to the Soviet sphere was fair. This was because Romania had joined Germany in attacking the Soviet Union in 1941. Eden got Molotov to agree that the Bulgarians would leave the parts of Yugoslavia and Greece they had occupied. But the issue of spheres of influence in Bulgaria and the Bulgarian peace deal was not fully resolved.

The Americans had now become interested in Bulgaria. The US Secretary of State, Cordell Hull, insisted on a peace deal that would give the American delegation on the ACC for Bulgaria equal say with the Soviet delegation. Even though the American ambassador was outvoted on October 21, 1944, he said this was not final. The US was ready to discuss it again.

What Historians Say

It was not until 1958 that Soviet historians first admitted Churchill's story in his book. But they denied it. A Soviet historian wrote that Churchill's claim of a percentages agreement was a "dirty, crude" lie. He said no such offer was made to Stalin, and Stalin would have rejected it. The idea that Stalin coldly abandoned the Communist EAM in Greece, which could have taken over the country, hurt his reputation among left-wing groups.

Some historians, like Gabriel Kolko and Geoffrey Roberts, believe the agreement is not as important as some think. Kolko wrote that Churchill's story about dividing Eastern Europe was not that significant. He said Stalin's "tick" on the paper did not mean much. The next day, Churchill sent Stalin a draft. Stalin carefully removed phrases that suggested creating spheres of influence. Churchill did not include this in his memoirs.

Anthony Eden avoided using the term "spheres of influence." He saw the agreement as a practical way to solve problems in each country. The next day, he and Molotov changed the percentages. Eden thought these were general guidelines, not exact numbers.

Henry Butterfield Ryan wrote that Eden and Molotov "bargained over these quantities as though they were bargaining over a rug in a bazaar." Molotov tried to reduce Britain's numbers and succeeded. In The Cambridge History of the Cold War, Norman Naimark wrote that the "notorious percentages agreement" confirmed that Eastern Europe would be in the Soviet Union's sphere of influence.

In his book about Churchill, Roy Jenkins wrote that the agreement suggested "realistic spheres of influence in the Balkans." The official British record said Churchill believed "the Americans would be shocked if they saw how crudely he had put it." David Carlton wrote that a clear, informal deal was made on the most important point for Churchill: Stalin agreed that Churchill could handle Greece "as he saw fit." Anthony Eden wrote that he and Churchill had discussed this months before. They felt they could ask for Soviet support for their policy in Greece. In return, they would support Soviet policy in Romania. Richard Crampton called the agreement "infamous." He said Churchill and Stalin "carelessly" divided Eastern Europe without asking the people there.

What Happened Next

Churchill believed the agreement was very good for Britain. EAM controlled most of Greece. Stalin agreed that Greece would be in the British sphere of influence. In return, Britain recognized Bulgaria and Romania as Soviet spheres. The Red Army already occupied these countries. From Britain's view, having Greece in their sphere meant EAM could not take power. This stopped the Soviet Union from getting bases in Greece. Greece was key to controlling the eastern Mediterranean. For Churchill, this was much more important than the rest of the Balkans.

Roosevelt did not share Churchill's excitement about putting King George II back on the Greek throne. This was a key reason why Churchill made his own deal with Stalin and left the Americans out. Churchill feared that if Roosevelt was included, the Americans might side with the Soviets. They might agree to recognize EAM as the rightful government.

During the fighting in Athens, called the Dekemvriana, Roosevelt said he disapproved of Britain fighting EAM. Privately, he was shocked that the British openly used groups who had worked with Nazi Germany to fight EAM. American news also criticized Churchill for using these groups to fight for the unpopular King George. When Americans said Britain was playing "power politics" in Greece, Churchill replied in a speech. He said Britain was not guilty of having a huge navy, the largest air force, or all the world's gold. He said those "luxuries" were gone for Britain.

Churchill's Later Thoughts

Churchill later wrote in his book that the US recognizing his Greek policy in 1947 was a sign he was right. He said later events "completely justified" his actions. Churchill showed how the US Acting Secretary of State said in 1947 that a Communist victory in the Greek Civil War would be "dangerous" to the United States. Part of why Churchill revealed the percentages agreement in his book was to show himself as a smart leader. He had signed the agreement to stop the Soviet Union from supporting EAM.

At the Yalta Conference in February 1945, Roosevelt suggested that the issues from the percentages agreement should be decided by the new United Nations. Stalin was upset because he wanted a Soviet sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. According to historian Melvyn Leffler, Churchill "tried to go back" on the percentages agreement as the war ended and Greece was secure. Churchill and Roosevelt kept the agreement so secret that their successors did not know about it. Stalin, however, initially thought the secret agreement was more important than the public deal at Yalta. This led him to feel betrayed and made him more determined to secure friendly governments on the USSR's border.

Churchill wrote his history books to influence the present as well as understand the past. In the 1950s, Churchill worried about nuclear war. He wanted to find a way to calm the Cold War before it became a Third World War. He believed this could end humanity. A main idea in his later books was that it was possible to understand the Soviet Union. Because of these worries, Churchill presented the percentages agreement as a great success of diplomacy. He implied that this was the solution to the Cold War: the Western powers and the Soviet Union agreeing to respect each other's spheres of influence.

In a 1956 interview, Churchill said:

Stalin never broke his word to me. We agreed on the Balkans. I said he could have Romania and Bulgaria, and he said we could have Greece… When we went in 1944 Stalin didn't interfere.

All the countries mentioned in the percentages agreement eventually came under Communist control, except for Greece. In Greece, the Communists lost the Greek Civil War. After the Tito-Stalin split in 1948, Yugoslavia, which was seen as being in the Soviet sphere, became neutral in the Cold War. Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary were in the Soviet sphere of influence after 1945.

After 1956, Hungary stayed loyal to Moscow in foreign affairs. But it made important changes at home. Romania was loyal at first. But it started to show signs of independence from 1959 onwards. Romania's leaders rejected Soviet economic plans.

Romania's move away from Soviet influence grew stronger under Nicolae Ceaușescu. He started diplomatic relations with West Germany in 1967. He publicly criticized the Soviet invasions of Czechoslovakia in 1968 and Afghanistan in 1979. In 1971, he visited China, which had fought a border war with the Soviet Union. He praised Mao Zedong as a role model for Romania. Romania's praise for China, which challenged the Soviet Union for leadership of the Communist world, was seen as anti-Soviet.

Images for kids

Winston Churchill's copy of his secret agreement with Joseph Stalin