Hypothetical dissolution of the Russian Federation facts for kids

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This page is about a hypothetical dissolution of the Russian Federation. For the 1991 event, see Dissolution of the Soviet Union.

The dissolution of Russian Federation refers to a hypothetical unraveling of the Russian Federation from a unified state to various potential independent successor states. The term is frequently used in academic literature and journalism in discussions about Russian statehood and challenges that are perceived to threaten the unity and integrity of the Russian state.

The current Russian Federation is considered the primary successor state of the Soviet Union. Various trends and problems which may challenge the permanence of the unified Russian Federation have been discussed publicly and in academia by figures such as Garry Kasparov, Mikhail Leontyev, Herman Gref, Maxim Kalashnikov, Sergey Kurginyan, Alexander Prokhanov, Natalya Narochnitskaya, and Dmitry Medvedev.

Historical precedents

Russian Empire

The collapse of the Russian Empire in September 1918

British historian Geoffrey Hosking believes that the policy of the authorities of the Russian Empire included Russification, which contributed to the centralization of power and the elimination of local privileges. In his opinion, Russification was also aimed at giving all the peoples of the Russian Empire a sense of belonging to Russia, its past and traditions. The active Russification of the Western ethnic suburbs began in the first half of the 19th century and intensified in the 1860s after the latest Polish uprising. However, instead of a unifying factor, this policy, on the contrary, harmed the image of Russia. As a result, the loyalty of minorities (within the Russian Empire) fell even more, stimulating their national liberation movements, which did not contribute to either calmness or unity of the population within the empire. In fact it even antagonized previously friendly peoples towards the Tsarist government, which became one of the reasons for the future collapse of the Russian Empire.

The ideologists of Siberian regionalism (mid-1850s – early 20th century) considered Siberians to be a separate people from ethnic Russians. Among scientists there are both opponents and supporters of this point of view. 1918 saw the short-term formation of the Siberian Republic as a formal state.

The first disintegration of Russia occurred in 1917. After the February Revolution, active processes of disintegration began, taking place in the economic, social, and sociopolitical spheres, which eventually led to the termination of the existence of a single state. The Russian Civil War ended with the creation of the USSR, the loss of Moldova, which was annexed by Romania, and the recognition of the independence of the former Russian territories: Finland, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and the Tuvan People's Republic.

Soviet Union

In the Soviet Union, on the one hand, the number of national-territorial entities grew, and their status increased, but on the other hand, the process of centralization took place. From the mid-1920s, in the national regions of the USSR, korenization was carried out, which meant the introduction of national-territorial languages and national cadres into state and social life in order to develop national identity. This process also contributed to the growth of regional nationalism struggling with "great power", which led to the development of centrifugal tendencies. At the end of the 1930s (particularly in 1932–1933), korenization was curtailed, and many of its active participants were repressed. The widespread introduction of the Russian language as the language of interethnic communication has largely supplanted local languages.

Russian Federation

In 1991, the USSR collapsed into 15 new countries: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Russia, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. These became independent states, and many further became the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Chechnya and Tatarstan sought independence from the Russian Federation in 1994. An agreement with Tatarstan, resulting in a bilateral treaty, was reached and the republic remained part of the Russian Federation. Conflict with Chechnya escalated into the First Chechen War after Russian troops were deployed in the republic in December 1994.

A list of other 1990s breakaway atempts, excluding the Ural Republic, Tartarstan and Chechenya.

1990 Karachai Republic
1990 Nenets Soviet Autonomous Republic
1991 Abaza Republic
1991 Cossack Republics
1991 Lezgistan
1991 Pomeranian Republic
1991 Yamalo-Nenets Republic
1993 Baltic Republic
1993 Vologda Republic
1993 St. Petersburg Republic
1993 Primorsky Republic
1993 South Ural Republic

Shapes of Russian statehood

Pressures that could lead to the dissolution of Russia, and concerns for preserving the integrity of the state, provide evidence that the current Russian statehood may not be the optimal form of the Russian state. The discussion about the future of Russian statehood is centered around the transformation that the Russian state has been undergoing since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Whether Russia becomes a nation state, or a highly centralised imperial state, is the primary focus of this debate.

Some scholars see Russia as being in the process of transforming from an imperial state towards a nation state, seeing it either as a desired path towards building a civil society (Yevgeny Yasin) or the inevitable and irreversible breaking up of an empire (Dmitri Trenin). Some proponents of this viewpoint, such as Emil A. Pain [ru], oppose imperial ambitions, noting that the growth of xenophobia, traditionalism, and fear of the West, are indicative of the ongoing decay of the empire.

Others, such as Vladimir Shevchenko, consider a centralised empire-like form of the state to be preferable. Shevchenko considers that there is a fundamental reason why Russia has been a self-regenerating empire for centuries, gravitating towards an imperial state, and morphing from the Russian Empire to the USSR's "Red Empire" most recently.

Possible causes of decay

As discussed by Vladimir Shevchenko

The chief researcher of the Institute of Philosophy, Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladimir Shevchenko, when reviewing the article "The collapse of Russia in the early 21st century in the statements of contemporaries" by O. Yu. Maslova, noted that it contains a large collection of authors on the theme of Russian disintegration. These authors range from diehard supporters of the idea that the collapse of Russia is almost inevitable and has already begun, to supporters of the idea of artificial and deliberate attempts at making the country collapse.

The main reason for the disintegration processes and the possible collapse of Russia, according to Shevchenko's 2015 review work, "The Future of Russia: Strategies for Philosophical Understanding," is the lack of a national idea or project (such as Communism in the Soviet Union) that would unite all peoples of Russia. Russian statehood, as he sees it, is in a transitional state in which all processes have become more active: both integration and disintegration.

He went on to list the accompanying reasons for Russia's possible collapse as:

xenophobic sentiments ("Russia for Russians"),
the separatist tendencies of minority ethnic groups in Russia, and
the transformation of the republics of Russia into full-fledged States.

In his article, he opposes the opinion that the disintegration had already begun, stressing that issues such as legal extraterritoriality, instances of discrimination of non-titular ethnicity in republican governments, and the radicalization of Islam exist.

Other Russian sources and reasons

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the Russian government forbade Tatarstan from switching from the Cyrillic script to the Latin alphabet, fearing that such a move would disrupt internal unity and result in dissolution. On the other hand, in the 2020s, Kazakhstan, an independent country formed after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, began moving towards the Latin alphabet, and this is believed to be to distance itself from Russian influence. The Russian government strives to make all of the languages of Russia use Cyrillic to enforce unity.

In a report to the Izborsky Club, a Russian conservative think tank, a group of analysts led by A. Kobyakov, listed the lines of division in modern Russian society that could potentially lead to the collapse of the state: socio-economic inequality, interethnic relations, alienation of elites from the people, and opposition of the "creative class" to the rest of society.

The culturologist I. Yakovenko believes that the main reason for the disintegration processes is the uneven process of market modernization in different regions of Russia, which increases the economic isolation of these regions from one another. Yakovenko identifies the following regions into which in his opinion the Russian Federation may break up: North and South of Russia, Siberia, the North Caucasus and the intercontinental border.

According to the mathematician Georgiy Malinetsky [ru], there are some possible reasons for the collapse of Russia:

the large difference between the income levels of different social strata
the large economic gap between different regions of Russia
the complexity of communications between different regions of the country because of infrastructure underdevelopment
the breakdown of generations
the strengthening of existing schisms in a religious, cultural and national context, and
the strengthening of the power of local regional leaders.

Democratic values

Widely criticized for being antisemitic and an extreme nationalist, Igor Shafarevich wrote the 1981 essay Russophobia in which he blamed "Jews seeking world rule". He alleged a "vast conspiracy against Russia and all mankind" and that they seek the destruction of Russia through adoption of a Western-style democracy.

Peter Eltsov, professor at National Defense University (United States), argued that Russia cannot survive as a "true liberal democracy" and "would probably disintegrate" if it were to embrace Western values.

Irredentism

As in any country with land borders, there are many ethnicities living in Russia related or identical to the titular ethnic groups of neighboring countries. In some of these border regions, irredentist ideas are expressed about the reunification of divided peoples.

In Buryatia and two Buryat autonomous okrugs, one of which is the Ust-Orda Buryat Okrug, ideas are being expressed of joining Mongolia as part of the idea of pan-Mongolism.

Some Kazakh nationalists wish to recover Orenburg, the former capital of the Kazakh Autonomous Socialist Soviet Republic, and now part of Russia in the Orenburg Oblast, also Omsk, Astrakhan and few other cities.

The idea of uniting Finland and Karelia into a Greater Finland (the Karelian question) used to be popular among part of the population in Finland and Karelia.

Failed state

According to Janusz Bugajski, senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, regular consultant for prominent actors and agencies and author of Failed State: A Guide to Russia's Rupture (2022), Russia's disintegration is inevitable due to a variety of reasons, primarily that it is a failed state, relying on hyper-centralization, ethnic and linguistic homogeneisation while being a federation in name only; the Russian-Ukrainian war having also exposed the degree of corruption and incompetence of its elites and creating growing discontent for the republics and regions as their budgets are increasingly shrinking. He argues that the Western leaders have been trying to offer guarantees to keep the Russian state together, but Bugajski believes that the West is making a severe mistake and would actually benefit from a collapse of the Russian Federation, as it would no longer pose a threat while being deprieved of its resources from Siberia, leading to securing the eastern front of NATO, liberating Central Asia from Russian influence and allowing the West to create partnerships with the region, and allowing the emergence of new potentially pro-West states, further enhancing regional stability in Eurasia, provided that the West effectively shows support to Russia's citizens ahead of time.

Consequences of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

The post-WW2 sphere of influence (the Eastern Bloc and the Warsaw Pact) collapsed in 1991 with the aforementioned dissolution of the Soviet Union. The dissolution was largely non-violent, though it has been argued that the violence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (February 2022) resulted from the Soviet dissolution. In 2022, within weeks of this invasion, some commentators predicted an eventual Russian collapse as a result, especially once it became obvious that Vladimir Putin's "special military operation" was not going to be a quick victory. Some have been more specific, and have stated such a collapse could happen by 2025–2027.

In May 2022, US journalist Casey Michel called for the "decolonization" of Russia. In his view, the dissolution of the former Soviet Union should be continued, to end the rule of Moscow over the republics of Russia. Weeks later the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe held an event discussing "the need to 'decolonize' Russia" because of "Russia's barbaric war on Ukraine", as they put it, calling for a conversation about Russia's "interior empire" and noting "Moscow's dominion over many indigenous non-Russian nations".

Several separatist movements founded the Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum in Poland in May 2022, advocating for the disintegration of the Russian Federation. The forum has been deemed an "undesirable organization" by Russia. By mid-April 2023, the forum had met six times and published a map outlining 34 potential nations emerging from the breakup of the Russian Federation.

Russian opposition reactions

Freedom of Russia Legion: Announced on Telegram that the group opposes any collapse of Russia.
Russia of the Future: Leader Alexei Navalny predicted that the invasion will lead to a "collapse of Russia".
Russian Volunteer Corps: Believes in self-determination for minorities and "want to see a smaller, ethnic Russian state".

Minority group reactions

Committee of Bashkir Resistance: Seeks independence for Bashkortostan with an insurgency and has a company in the International Legion.
Dagestani Partisans: After the repression of the 2022 North Caucasian protests, the protesters have begun to organize a partisan movement.

Opinions on the consequences of a Russian breakup

In an interview with the magazine Expert in April 2005, the head of the presidential administration, Dmitry Medvedev, said:

If we fail to consolidate the elite, Russia may disappear as a single state... The consequences will be monstrous. The disintegration of the Union may seem like a matinee in the kindergarten compared to the state collapse in modern Russia.

In 2011, during a meeting of the government commission for the development of the North Caucasian Federal District in Gudermes, Vladimir Putin said that if the Caucasus were to suddenly leave Russia:

If this happens, then, at the same moment — not even an hour, but a second — there will be those who want to do the same with other territorial entities of Russia, [...] and it will be a tragedy that will affect every citizen of Russia without exception.

Following the Wagner Group rebellion during the Russian-Ukrainian war, Ukrainian deputy Oleksiy Goncharenko, writing on the Atlantic Council's website, expressed his support for the Russian Federation breakup, and compared the situation and the world leaders' reactions to the ones surrounding the dissolution of the Soviet Union, particularly George H. W. Bush's "Chicken Kiev speech". Goncharenko urged them to acknowledge that the dissolution of the Russian Federation was now a possibility and that Western policymakers should prepare to manage it to bring about a more sustainable shift toward democracy for the emerging new states.

Hypothetical dissolution of the Russian Federation facts for kids

Contents

Historical precedents

Russian Empire

Soviet Union

Russian Federation

Shapes of Russian statehood

Possible causes of decay

As discussed by Vladimir Shevchenko

Other Russian sources and reasons

Democratic values

Irredentism

Failed state

Consequences of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

Opinions on the consequences of a Russian breakup

See also

Europe

Northen Europe

Central Europe

Eastern Europe

Caucasus region

Asia