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Climate change in Australia facts for kids

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2019-12-07 East Australian Fires Aqua MODIS-VIIRS-LABELS
Climate change is making bushfires bigger and happen more often, like the huge fires in Australia in 2019–2020.

Climate change is a big problem for Australia in the 21st century. Australia is getting hotter. It also faces more extreme heat, bushfires, droughts, floods, and longer fire seasons. Other climate issues include heatwaves, cyclones, rising sea levels, and erosion.

Since the early 1900s, Australia's average yearly temperature has gone up by more than 1.4°C. This warming has happened twice as fast in the last 50 years. Recent very hot temperatures and widespread droughts have made people and the government pay more attention to climate change in Australia. Rainfall in southwestern Australia has dropped by 10–20% since the 1970s. Southeastern Australia has also seen less rain since the 1990s.

Scientists expect Australia's average temperatures to rise by 0.4–2.0°C by 2030. They could go up by 1–6°C by 2070. Rainfall might become heavier but happen less often. It could also be more common in summer than in winter.

Climate change is changing Australia's environment and natural places. Australia is easily affected by global warming. This is because it has large dry areas, an already warm climate, and very changeable rainfall. The high risk of fires makes it even more sensitive to temperature changes. Australia's coastlines will also see erosion and flooding. This is due to an expected 8–88 cm rise in global sea levels. Australia's special places like the Great Barrier Reef and many animal species are also in danger.

Climate change also affects Australia's economy, farming, and people's health. We might see more severe floods, droughts, and cyclones. Many Australians live near the coast. These areas are at risk from rising sea levels. Also, problems with water supply will get worse. Indigenous Australians are especially affected. This is because of existing social and economic challenges. These challenges are linked to how they have been treated in the past. Communities in the North are most affected. Here, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people make up 30% of the population. These communities rely on their traditional land for food, culture, and health. This makes them very vulnerable.

Australia also adds to climate change. Its greenhouse gas emissions per person are higher than the world average. The country uses a lot of coal and other fossil fuels. However, renewable energy is growing. Australia has promised to reach net zero emissions by 2050. This is part of the Paris Agreement. But Australia often ranks low in international climate change reports. Adapting to changes is also important.

Climate change has been a hot topic in Australian politics since the 2000s. This has led to governments putting in place and then removing policies like carbon pricing. Some Australian news outlets have spread wrong information about climate change. The issue has also caused many protests. Some of these have been the biggest in Australia's history.

What are Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

Greenhouse gases are gases in the Earth's atmosphere. They trap heat and warm the planet. Some of these gases come from natural sources. But human activities, like burning fossil fuels, release extra amounts. These extra gases cause the Earth to warm up. This warming leads to climate change.

Australia releases a lot of greenhouse gases. This is because it uses a lot of coal and other fossil fuels for energy. The country is working to reduce these emissions. It is investing more in renewable energy sources like solar and wind power.

How Climate Change Affects Nature

Australia-temp-anomaly-1910-2009
Australian average yearly temperature changes since 1910. The line shows a clear warming trend.

Temperature and Weather Changes

Australia's weather records show big changes over time. From 1885 to 1898, it was generally wet. Then, from 1899 to 1921, the climate became drier. The years 1922 to 1938 were very dry. This period had much less rain than usual. From 1939 to 1967, rainfall increased at first. Temperatures were cooler but then started to rise. Since 1968, Australia has had 15% more rain than before. Nights, especially in winter, have been much warmer. Frosts happen less often now.

The Bureau of Meteorology reported that 2009 was Australia's second-warmest year since 1910. In 2011, temperatures were lower due to a La Niña weather pattern. However, the average temperature over 10 years (2002–2011) was still much warmer than usual. 2014 was Australia's third warmest year on record. 2015 was the fifth hottest. January 2019 was the hottest month ever in Australia.

Rising Sea Levels

Melbourne, Australia Population Density and Low Elevation Coastal Zones (5457913124)
Melbourne's population density and low-lying coastal areas.

The Australian Government says that almost 250,000 houses are at risk of flooding. This could happen if sea levels rise by 1.1 meters. About 39,000 buildings are near 'soft' coastlines. These are at risk from faster erosion due to rising sea levels.

Some areas are already planning for this. For example, Western Australia has a policy. It sets a sea level rise target for the next 100 years. Lower predictions suggest sea levels will rise by 40 to 90 cm by the end of this century.

Water: Droughts and Floods

Australia is the driest inhabited continent. Records show a 'severe' drought happens every 18 years on average. Rainfall in southwestern Australia has dropped by 10–20% since the 1970s. Southeastern Australia has also seen less rain. Rain is expected to be heavier but less frequent. It will also be more common in summer.

In 2008, experts warned about serious damage to the Murray-Darling basin. This major river system needed enough water by October or it would suffer. Many Australian cities had water restrictions due to shortages. In 2004, a scientist named Tim Flannery said Perth could become a "ghost city." This would happen if it didn't make big changes to its water use.

In 2019, Australia's water minister, David Littleproud, agreed that climate change causes droughts. He said the drought in Australia had already lasted eight years. He called for less greenhouse gas emission and more renewable energy.

A 2022 report from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) said floods and other extreme weather are increasing. This is due to global warming. Less rain means less water for major cities. The report suggests we need better plans to adapt to these changes.

Water Resources

Healthy plants are vital for clean rivers. Many important water areas in Australia are covered by native forests. These forests help keep the ecosystem healthy. Climate change will affect how native plants grow. It will also change which species are present and bring new pests. This will deeply affect water supply from these areas.

Scientists predict that a 1 to 2°C temperature rise in Australia will cause:

Bushfires

Firefighting at Hillview North of Adelaide River August 2010 01
Bushfires in Australia are made worse by hotter temperatures and dry conditions from climate change.

Fire activity in Australia has increased in recent decades. This is due to more dangerous fire weather. It also includes more fire-generated thunderstorms and more fires started by dry lightning. These are all linked to human-caused climate change.

Firefighters worry that climate change will make bushfires happen more often and be more intense. This will happen even with "low global warming." A 2006 report said southeastern Australia is one of the world's most fire-prone areas. It predicted an increase in fire risk over the next decades. This includes more days with very high or extreme fire danger.

The 2019–20 Australian bushfire season was one of Australia's "worst bushfire seasons on record." In New South Wales, the fires burned more land than any other fires in 25 years. They were the state's worst ever. About 3 billion animals were killed or displaced. This made it one of the worst natural disasters in history. The chance of having the weather conditions that fuel these fires has become more than four times bigger since 1900. It will be eight times more likely if the temperature rises by 2 degrees.

In 2019, bushfires caused air pollution 11 times higher than safe levels in many areas. Medical groups called for action to protect people. The United Nations Environment Programme said the huge fires in 2019–2020 were likely linked to climate change. This created unusually dry and hot weather.

Researchers say the extremely strong wildfires in 2019–2020 would have been impossible without climate change. More than one-fifth of Australian forests burned in one season. This was completely new. They believe that record temperatures would not have happened without human influence.

Extreme Weather Events

HeatAus3
Heatmap showing Australia's land temperature changes since 1910.

Rainfall patterns, droughts, and storms are likely to change. Scientists predict that a 2 to 3°C temperature rise in Australia could cause:

  • Tropical cyclone winds could get 5 to 10% stronger.
  • Strong tides could increase by 12–16% along eastern Victoria's coast.
  • Forest fire danger could increase by more than 10% in many areas.

Heatwaves

A 2014 report showed that heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe. They start earlier and last longer. Since 1910, temperatures have risen by about 1°C. Most of this change happened after 1950. During this time, extreme heat events became more common and intense.

Summer 2013–14 was warmer than average across Australia. Adelaide had 13 days of 40°C or more. Melbourne had six days over 40°C. This heatwave was directly linked to climate change. It was predicted that temperatures could rise by up to 1.5°C by 2030. 2015 was Australia's fifth-hottest year. January 2019 was the hottest month ever.

Ecosystems and Biodiversity

Yello Water Kakadu National Park Australia
Bramble-cay-melomys
The Bramble Cay melomys was the first mammal extinction due to climate change.

Ongoing climate change could greatly affect Australia's ecosystems. For example, warmer ocean temperatures and coastal erosion will cause more bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef. Australia's climate will also become harsher. This means more powerful tropical cyclones and longer droughts.

The Department of Climate Change said that important natural places are at risk. These include the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland Wet Tropics, and Kakadu Wetlands. Many animal species are also in danger. Over 90 Australian animal species are at risk from climate change.

Australia has very diverse ecosystems. This variety might make them more fragile. The Great Barrier Reef has seen a lot of bleaching in the last 20 years. Even a 1°C warming is expected to cause major losses of species and coral.

Scientists predict that a 2 to 3°C temperature rise in Australia will cause:

  • 97% of the Great Barrier Reef to bleach every year.
  • 10–40% loss of main habitats for animals in Victoria and tropical mountains.
  • 92% fewer butterfly species' main habitats.
  • 80% loss of freshwater wetlands in Kakadu due to sea level rise.

A 2024 study suggests that worse climate scenarios will greatly affect animal and plant habitats in Australia. By 2090, bad climate conditions are linked to less habitat for many species.

Great Barrier Reef

GBReef TempChlorophyll 200602
Water temperature and coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef in 2006.

The Great Barrier Reef could be destroyed by rising water temperatures. It is a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The reef has had a lot of bleaching in the last two decades. Even a small warming of 1°C is expected to cause big losses of coral species.

Lord Howe Island

The coral reefs of Lord Howe Island, another World Heritage site, are also at risk. Rising water temperatures could kill them. As of April 2019, about 5% of the coral there was already dead.

How Climate Change Affects People

Economic Impacts

Extreme heatwaves, floods, and bushfires in Australia have become worse due to climate change. They will continue to get worse. The summer of 2012/2013 was the hottest on record. The 2009 bushfires in Victoria cost about A$4.4 billion. The 2010–11 Queensland floods cost over A$5 billion.

A 2009 report looked at the effects of a 1-meter sea level rise. This could happen in the next 30–60 years. It found that about 700,000 properties, including 80,000 buildings, would be flooded. Their total value is estimated at $155 billion.

In 2019, a report said climate change cut the profit of Australian farms by 22% between 2000 and 2019. The 2022 IPCC report estimates Australia could lose billions of dollars. This is due to deaths and physical damage from natural disasters. If warming reaches 2 degrees, Australia could lose $115 billion in the next decade.

Farming, Forests, and Animals

Small changes from global warming might help Australian farming and forests at first. This includes longer growing seasons and more CO2. But these benefits won't last as global warming gets worse. Changes in rain and water problems will make Australia's water challenges even harder.

Scientists predict that a 3 to 4°C temperature rise in Australia will cause:

  • 32% chance of less wheat production (without changes).
  • 55% of main habitat lost for Eucalyptus trees.
  • 128% increase in losses for cattle due to ticks.

Electricity Use

Using air conditioners a lot during heatwaves can double electricity demand. This puts a lot of strain on power networks. It can lead to load shedding, where power is cut off. Also, bushfires can damage power lines. Repairing them is often hard during hot, dry weather due to fire risks.

Impacts on Homes and Buildings

Settlements and Infrastructure

Global warming could cause big changes in extreme weather. This includes tropical cyclones, heat waves, and heavy rain. This would damage buildings and roads. It would also increase costs for energy, repairs, and disasters like coastal flooding. In coastal areas, sea level rise and storm surges might be bigger problems than temperature or rain.

Scientists describe the impact on homes and buildings for a 1 to 2°C temperature rise: A 22% rise in 100-year storm surge height around Cairns. This would double the flooded area.

Human Settlements

Climate change will affect Australia's coastal communities more. This is because many people, businesses, and industries are there. A 1–2°C temperature rise could mean stronger storm winds, including from tropical cyclones. Combined with sea level rise, this means more flooding. Tourism in coastal areas might also be affected by flooding and beach erosion.

Property

A 2009 report looked at a 1-meter sea level rise. This could happen in the next 30–60 years. It found that about 700,000 properties, including 80,000 buildings, would be flooded. The total value of these properties is estimated at $150 billion.

A 1-meter sea level rise would have huge impacts. It would affect homes and the economy. It would also force many people to move. Queensland is most at risk because of its valuable beachfront homes.

Impacts on Indigenous Australians

Indigenous Australians have thousands of years of experience adapting to changes in nature. They have a lot of traditional knowledge about climate change. However, existing social and economic challenges make them more vulnerable. These challenges are linked to how they have been treated in the past.

Some changes include rising sea levels, hotter and longer heat periods, and stronger cyclones. The communities most affected are in the North. Here, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people make up 30% of the population. They rely on their traditional land for food, culture, and health. This makes them very vulnerable. Many Aboriginal people live in rural areas. There are different climate impacts on different communities. This includes cyclones in the North and floods in Central Australia. These negatively affect cultural sites.

Vulnerability

Indigenous groups often live in remote areas. They may have lower incomes and rely on nature for their needs. They might also have less access to health and education services. These disadvantages make them more vulnerable to climate change. Many of these problems come from colonialism and ongoing unfair treatment. Indigenous people are often shown as victims. But Aboriginal Australians believe they have always adapted to climate changes.

Many communities want to have more say in how to adapt to climate issues. They want to use their own ideas instead of only following government plans. This includes having control over their own decisions. They also say that staying healthy, both physically and mentally, helps them adapt. This is supported by strong community ties and their connection to the land.

Aboriginal people argue that their voices must be included in climate policy. They want to help manage their traditional lands. They have traditional knowledge that is important for solving environmental problems.

Heat and Drought
Yanderra Bushfire
The Green Wattle Creek bushfire moving towards Yanderra in Southern Australia.

Fires and droughts happen mostly in savannas. Many fire-prone savanna areas are owned by Aboriginal Australian communities. They are the traditional caretakers of the land. Aboriginal Australians have traditional ways of managing the land. This includes burning and clearing savanna areas. These methods help reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Traditional Knowledge

Australian Outback Landscape - panoramio (6)
Australian Outback Landscape

Indigenous people have always adapted to climate change. Aboriginal Australian people have lived in Australia for tens of thousands of years. They have seen and adapted to climate changes for a very long time. This gives them a unique position to respond to current changes. This knowledge is part of their culture and spiritual practices. It is tied to their special relationship with the land.

Indigenous communities in Australia have specific knowledge about weather patterns and environmental changes. They have adapted in the past. Their knowledge can help everyone adapt to climate change now and in the future. Some of this knowledge was lost when European settlers arrived. But recently, communities have started to bring back these traditional practices. Australian Aboriginal traditional knowledge includes language, culture, spiritual practices, and land management.

Responses to Climate Change

Indigenous knowledge has been passed down through generations by telling stories. Aboriginal Australians often choose to stay and adapt to environmental changes. This is because of their long history with the land. They have observed short and long-term environmental changes. They are very aware of weather and climate changes.

Recently, elders have been helping both Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities. They share traditional knowledge about land management. This includes seasonal knowledge about weather, plants, and animals. This knowledge helps communities deal with environmental changes. It can lead to healthier natural systems. Traditional land management often focuses on keeping diverse plants and animals. Ecological calendars are one traditional way for Aboriginal communities to organize this knowledge. These calendars link seasonal weather cycles to cultural and spiritual life.

What is Being Done: Mitigation

Energy consumption by source, Australia
Energy use in Australia by source over time.

Climate change mitigation means taking steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It's about preventing global warming from getting worse. Examples include investing in clean energy and using renewable energy like wind and solar power.

Experts say that climate change will have many bad effects on Australia. These effects will be on species, regions, and the economy. They believe the benefits of reducing emissions are greater than the costs.

Reducing Emissions

Climate Change Performance Index 2021
Australia often ranks lower than most developed countries in climate change performance.

Australia has promised to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030. It also aims for net zero emissions by 2050. This is part of the Paris Agreement. Laws like the Clean Energy Act 2011 help manage greenhouse gases. They set limits on emissions and use carbon pricing. Renewable energy targets and funds like the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) also help. For industries, programs like Energy Efficiency Opportunities help. For buildings, there are building codes and energy performance standards. For transport, there are fuel tax credits and vehicle emission standards. For farming, there's the Carbon Farming Initiative.

Australia has reduced 60 million tonnes of greenhouse gases through its emission reduction fund. This fund helps businesses earn carbon credits. They get these credits by storing or preventing emissions using new sustainable methods.

Forests and Carbon Sinks

In Australia, forests are the most important way to absorb carbon. They can store a lot of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This is called a carbon sink. Protecting forests in National Parks or on the World Heritage List helps. Stopping harmful uses like woodchipping old growth forest also helps.

Policies and Laws for Mitigation

Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement is an international agreement. Its main goal is to keep global warming below 1.5°C. Each country has its own plan to fight climate change. These plans are called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

Australia's goals are:

  • Reduce greenhouse gases by 43% by 2030 (compared to 2005 levels).
  • Reach net zero emissions by 2050.
  • This covers gases like Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), and others.

Australia's approach to reach these goals includes:

  • Supporting new technologies that have low emissions.
  • Promoting economic growth.
  • Investing in hydrogen exports.
  • Improving charging stations for electric vehicles.
  • Funding projects for carbon capture and storage.
  • Investing in technology to reduce emissions in farming, industry, and transport.
  • A "climate solution package" to increase clean energy investments.
  • Making major polluting industries keep their emissions below certain levels.

State Laws

Victoria

Victoria's Climate Change Act was passed in 2017. It aims for net-zero emissions by 2050. It also sets targets every five years to stay on track.

What is Being Done: Adaptation

Looking south along the sea wall at Machans Beach, 2018
Seawall in Machans Beach, Queensland
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Protesters from the Climate Action Summit outside of Parliament House, Canberra

The IPCC says that some climate change cannot be avoided. So, climate change adaptation is also needed. Adaptation means dealing with the problems that global warming has already caused. It's about learning to live with the changes. Examples include building better flood defenses. It also means not building homes in low-lying, flood-prone areas. Cities that are vulnerable need to strengthen their infrastructure. This includes storm drain systems and water plants.

Coastal areas will need big investments in physical projects. This is especially true for dealing with rising sea levels. Projects like building protective walls against rising seas are important. Building dams to manage water and improving port facilities are also needed. Australian governments support a National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan. This plan helps adapt to climate change impacts and manage effects on wildlife.

Policies and Laws

In 1981, an intelligence agency warned the prime minister about the greenhouse effect. They said it would lead to warmer temperatures and climate changes. They also thought it would affect Australia's fossil fuel industry.

In the late 1980s, both major political parties agreed on climate action. But after 1991, some governments started to question climate science. In 1997, Australia and the US were the only countries not to sign the Kyoto Protocol.

By 2007, voters were concerned about droughts and climate change. Both parties promised action. The Labor government then signed the Kyoto Protocol. However, later attempts to introduce a Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme failed.

20210626 Variwide chart of greenhouse gas emissions per capita by country
Australia is among the highest greenhouse gas emitters per person compared to other high-emitting countries.

The Labor government set up several groups to manage Australia's climate response:

  • The Climate Change Authority: Gives advice and does research.
  • The Clean Energy Regulator: Manages government schemes to reduce emissions.
  • The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA): Manages renewable energy programs.
  • The Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC): Invests in clean energy.

In 2011, a law introduced carbon pricing in Australia. This meant large businesses had to buy permits for their emissions. This was called a 'carbon tax'. But there was strong opposition. Later, Australia became the first country to remove a carbon pricing program.

In 2015, Australia joined the Paris Agreement. In 2019, the government won an election with an unchanged climate policy. In 2021, a report ranked Australia last among 193 countries for its action on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In May 2022, a new government was elected. It promised to reduce Australia's emissions by 43% by 2030. It also committed to net zero emissions by 2050.

History of Climate Change Policy

Australia's climate action started in 1989. A senator suggested an emission reduction target. The government rejected it. In 1990, the government agreed to the goals but not if it hurt the economy. Australia signed the UNFCCC in 1992. It then released a plan to meet emission guidelines. But Australia often failed to meet its targets in the 1990s.

In 1997, Prime Minister John Howard said 2% of electricity would come from sustainable sources by 2010. The Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO) was set up to monitor emissions. In 1998, Australia joined the Kyoto Declaration. It was signed in 2007. In 2000, the government introduced a program to get 10% of electricity from renewable sources by 2010. In 2003, New South Wales started a scheme to trade carbon emissions.

ClimateSummitParliament
Protests against the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in 2009

The Labor government proposed the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. But it was rejected by different groups for different reasons. Later, a carbon tax was introduced. This was a very debated issue. In 2012, the opposition campaigned to repeal the carbon tax. When they won the election in 2013, they removed it. They replaced it with a scheme to reward businesses for reducing emissions voluntarily.

Australia became a party to the Paris Agreement in 2015. It promised to reduce emissions by 26% by 2030. In 2019, Prime Minister Scott Morrison was criticized for not doing enough about climate change. This happened during the 2019–20 Australian bushfire season.

International Cooperation

Australia has helped create international partnerships. These include groups focused on rainforests, coral reefs, and clean energy. It has also given $1 billion to help developing countries reduce emissions. This is partly through the United Nations Green Climate Fund. Australian scientists also provide data for climate change assessments.

Under the Paris Agreement, Australia committed to reducing emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels. This means cutting emissions per person by half. Australia has met its first Kyoto Protocol target. Australia supported a 1.5°C target in 2019. In 2023, Australia offered permanent residency to 280 Tuvalu citizens each year. This is part of a deal for people displaced by climate change.

Society and Culture

Activism

Australia Climate Pariah - Flag Burning Action (51645897701)
Extinction Rebellion protesting Australia's climate change policies in Melbourne in 2021.

Climate change protests have happened in Australia since the 2000s. In 2005, churches and environmental groups worked together. They created a brochure to call for action on climate change.

Climate Rally flows down Swanston street
Walk Against Warming in Melbourne, December 2009.

In 2007, protests took place in Newcastle harbour. Young people also shut down two coal power stations. A "Walk Against Warming" in 2009 had 40,000 people.

Sydney strike (48763501892) - perspective-cropped
The September 2019 climate strike in Sydney. These were some of Australia's largest protests.

The "Say Yes" demonstrations in 2011 had 45,000 people supporting carbon pricing. Thousands of Australian children took part in school strikes for climate in 2018 and 2019. The September 2019 climate strikes attracted an estimated 180,000 to 300,000 people. This made it one of the largest protests in Australia's history. About 2,500 businesses also took part.

The 2019–20 Australian bushfire season sparked protests across Australia and in London. Prime Minister Scott Morrison was criticized for his stance on climate change. Extinction Rebellion held rallies around the world. Direct action group Blockade Australia also started protests. In 2023, another water blockade in Newcastle had 3000 people. Many protesters were not convicted, with judges recognizing their good character.

Projected Impacts by Location

Climate change impacts will be different across Australia. The Australian Government's Climate Commission has reports on likely impacts for each state.

Capital Cities

Adelaide

Adelaide will get hotter and drier. Rainfall is predicted to drop by 8% to 29% by 2090. Average temperature will increase by 0.4 to 2.0 degrees. The number of days above 35 degrees will increase by 50% by 2090. Days above 40 degrees will double. Sea levels will rise by 39 to 61 cm by 2090. Extreme seas are also expected to rise. Buildings in Port Adelaide might need to be raised by 50 to 81 cm to avoid more flooding.

Brisbane

Brisbane's temperature will become like Rockhampton today. Rainfall will be similar to Gympie. Scientists predict Brisbane's rainfall will fall by 4% to 23% annually by 2090. Temperature will rise by 0.9° to 4.2°. The number of hot days and nights will double by 2050. Many people will need to avoid outdoor activities in summer. Hot nights increase deaths among older people. Rain will be less frequent but heavier. Fire danger days will increase, and frost days will decrease. Sea levels are predicted to rise by 80 cm by 2100.

Goldcoast Queensland Australia aerial view
Low-lying canal development on the Gold Coast.

Sydney

Suburbs of Sydney like Manly and Botany are at risk of flooding. This is because they are on rivers. Sea levels are predicted to rise by 38 to 66 cm by 2090. Sydney's temperature will increase by 0.9° to 4.2°. Rainfall will decrease by 4% to 23% by 2090. This will make Sydney's climate similar to Beaudesert today. Western Sydney and Hawkesbury will see the biggest impact. They can expect 5 to 10 more hot days by 2030. More rain is expected in summer and autumn, less in winter and spring. Fire danger days will increase by 2070.

Melbourne

Smog and bushfire smoke over Melbourne CBD from MCG (49829097421)
Smog and bushfire smoke over Melbourne during the Black Summer.

Sea levels are expected to rise by 0.37 to 0.59 cm near Williamstown by 2090. This will affect areas in and around Melbourne. Vulnerable areas include the Docklands and marinas in Port Phillip. Melbourne's climate will become similar to Dubbo today. Temperatures will warm by 0.9° to 3.8°. Total annual rainfall will fall by 4% to 10% by 2090. Rainfall patterns will change, with 20% less rain in spring by 2050. This might affect summer bushfires. Increased temperatures and less rain will have other effects. There could be a 35% reduction in trees in Melbourne by 2040. More ambulance calls and deaths due to heatwaves are also expected. Climate change will cost Melbourne City $12.6 billion by 2050.

Perth

By 2090, Perth is predicted to have rainfall like Yanchep today and temperature like Geraldton. Rainfall is predicted to fall by 8% to 29%. Temperature is predicted to rise by 0.9° to 4°. Perth may see the number of days above 35° increase from 28 to 36 by 2030. It could reach 40 to 63 by 2090. Frost days will decrease. Rainfall will be more intense but less on average. Drought days in the southwest could increase by as much as 80%. The danger from fire will increase across Western Australia.

Hobart

By 2090, Hobart's climate will warm by 0.9° to 3.8°. Rainfall will decline by 4% to 10%. Warm spells are likely to last longer. Rain will be more intense but less overall. This increases the risk of erosion and flooding. Flooding on the Derwent river will become more regular and extreme. Hobart's fire season will get longer.

States

Victoria

By 2050, Victoria's annual temperature will increase up to 2.4°C. It will have twice as many very hot days. Fire seasons will be longer. There will be less rainfall and snowfall in the cool season. Sea levels will rise by about 24 cm.

Past Climate Changes

Climate Change Before Records

Ancient climate records show that Australia was very dry during ice ages. Deserts reached as far as northern Tasmania. Most of South Australia had less than 12% plant cover. The climate was also much colder and windier. Winter temperatures in the center of Australia were 9°C lower than today.

During warmer periods, there is evidence that the climate was much wetter. This was especially true between 8,000 and 4,200 years ago. This suggests that rainfall was heavier in summer. The start of modern conditions, with occasional dry seasons, began around 4,000 years ago.

Records of floods exist from the time of first European settlement. These suggest that the first 35 years were wet. This was followed by a much drier period until the mid-1860s. That's when proper weather records began.

How Weather Records Started

The first weather records in Australia began in 1840 at Port Macquarie. Rain gauges were slowly installed in other major towns. Melbourne and Sydney started keeping records in the late 1850s. By 1885, most of Australia had enough rainfall stations to show climate changes. Some remote areas got good data later. Temperature measurements were taken in major towns early on. But they were not as widespread as rain gauges in remote areas. Many places have rainfall data for over 125 years. But they only have a few decades of temperature records.

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