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Sir

Niall Ferguson

Niall Ferguson no Fronteiras do Pensamento São Paulo 2017 (37840342015) (cropped).jpg
Ferguson in 2017
Born
Niall Campbell Ferguson

(1964-04-18) 18 April 1964 (age 61)
Glasgow, Scotland
Citizenship
  • United Kingdom
  • United States
Education Magdalen College, Oxford
(MA, DPhil)
University of Hamburg
Notable work
Empire: How Britain Made the Modern World (2003)
Civilisation: the West and the Rest (2011)
Spouse(s)
  • Sue Douglas
    (m. 1994; div. 2011)
  • (m. 2011)
Children 5
Scientific career
Institutions
Thesis Business and Politics in the German Inflation (1989)
Doctoral advisor Norman Stone
Doctoral students Tyler Goodspeed
Influences A. J. P. Taylor

Sir Niall Campbell Ferguson (born 18 April 1964) is a well-known British-American historian. He is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. He has also taught at many other top universities, including Harvard, the London School of Economics, and New York University.

Ferguson writes and gives talks about international history, economic history (how money and trade have changed over time), and the history of empires like the British Empire. He believes the British Empire had some positive impacts on the world. In 2004, Time magazine named him one of the 100 most influential people. He has also created and presented several TV shows, including The Ascent of Money, which won an International Emmy Award for Best Documentary in 2009. In 2024, King Charles III gave him a special honor, making him a knight for his contributions to literature.

Ferguson has written for major news outlets like Bloomberg Television and Newsweek. He also writes columns for Bloomberg Opinion, The Spectator, and The Free Press. He has been described as a conservative thinker and has said he supports leaders like Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. In 2021, he helped start the University of Austin, a new college.

Early Life and School

Ferguson was born in Glasgow, Scotland, on 18 April 1964. His father was a doctor, and his mother was a physics teacher. He grew up near the Ibrox Park football stadium in Glasgow and went to The Glasgow Academy. He was raised as an atheist and still is, though he encourages his children to learn about religion.

Ferguson says his father taught him to be disciplined and value hard work. His mother helped him be creative. His grandfather, who was a journalist, inspired him to write. He decided to study history at university after reading Leo Tolstoy's War and Peace and admiring the historian A. J. P. Taylor.

Studying at Oxford

Ferguson earned a top scholarship at Magdalen College, Oxford. While there, he was involved in student films, played music, and edited a student magazine. He became friends with Andrew Sullivan, who shared his interest in right-wing politics. He finished his history degree with top honors in 1985.

From 1986 to 1988, Ferguson studied in Germany at the University of Hamburg. He then earned his PhD from the University of Oxford in 1989. His main research for his PhD was about "Business and Politics in the German Inflation."

Career Highlights

Teaching and Research

Niall Ferguson has had a long and impressive career in academics. He started as a research fellow at Christ's College, Cambridge in 1989. He then taught at Peterhouse, Cambridge and Jesus College, Oxford. In 2000, he became a professor of political and financial history at Oxford.

Later, he moved to the United States. He became a professor at New York University Stern School of Business in 2002. In 2004, he joined Harvard University as a history professor and also taught at Harvard Business School. From 2010 to 2011, he held a special chair in history at the London School of Economics. In 2016, Ferguson moved to the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

In 2021, Ferguson helped create the University of Austin. He explained that he felt "higher education is broken" and wanted to start a new college. This private college was approved to grant degrees in 2023.

Ferguson has received special honorary degrees from several universities around the world. In 2010, he advised the UK government on a new history curriculum for schools. He also helped set up the New College of the Humanities in London in 2011.

Ferguson once had a disagreement with a student activist at Stanford University. He later apologized for some emails he wrote during this time, saying they had a "juvenile, jocular tone." He stepped down from a program called Cardinal Conversations after this.

Business Ventures

In 2000, Ferguson helped start Boxmind, a company focused on educational technology. In 2006, he created Chimerica Media Ltd., a company that produces television shows. He also worked as a consultant for GLG Partners, a company that manages investments. He advised them on global risks and economic trends.

Political Advice

Ferguson has advised political campaigns in the United States. He was an advisor for John McCain's presidential campaign in 2008. He also supported Mitt Romney's presidential campaign in 2012.

Books by Niall Ferguson

Ferguson has written many books that explore different parts of history.

The Cash Nexus (2001)

In this book, Ferguson argues that money is not the only thing that drives human actions in history. He suggests that people are motivated by much more than just economic reasons.

Empire: How Britain Made the Modern World (2003)

This book looks at the British Empire in a new way. Ferguson suggests that the Empire helped modernize the world by spreading new technologies like steampower and telegraphs. Some historians have disagreed with his positive view, but Ferguson points out that he also wrote about the Empire's failures, such as slavery and forcing indigenous peoples from their lands. This book was also made into a TV series.

Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire (2005)

In this book, Ferguson says that the United States wants to spread free markets and fair laws around the world. However, he believes the U.S. avoids making long-term commitments of people and money needed to solve global problems. He calls the U.S. an "empire in denial" because it doesn't fully accept its global responsibilities.

War of the World (2006)

This book explores why the 20th century was so violent, with many wars and genocides. Ferguson suggests it was due to economic ups and downs, falling empires, and conflicts where groups hurt each other. He also looks at the puzzle of how such a bloody century could also be a time of great economic progress. This book also became a TV series.

The Ascent of Money (2008)

This book traces the history of money, credit, and banking. Ferguson predicted a financial crisis due to too much credit being used in the world economy, especially in the United States. He talked about "Chimerica" (China and America working together) where China's savings helped create the subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S.

Civilization: The West and the Rest (2011)

Ferguson suggests that the West became powerful because it developed six "killer apps" or key ideas. These include competition, the scientific method, the rule of law, modern medicine, consumerism, and the Protestant work ethic. He argues that these ideas were largely missing in other parts of the world around 1500. He also suggests that the West might be losing its advantage, and the future could belong to Asian nations like China that have adopted these ideas. This book was also a six-part TV series.

Kissinger: 1923–1968: The Idealist (2015)

This is the first part of a two-book biography about Henry Kissinger, a famous American diplomat. The book covers Kissinger's life from being a refugee fleeing Nazi Germany to serving in the U.S. Army during World War II. It also covers his time at Harvard University and his early views on the Vietnam War. Reviewers have called it a very detailed and important work.

The Square and the Tower (2018)

In this book, Ferguson suggests that history can be understood by looking at how human networks have changed. He talks about a shift from old "tower" networks (like strict hierarchies) to more open "square" networks (like connections between individuals).

Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe (2021)

This book explores the history of disasters around the world. Reviewers have praised Ferguson's wide knowledge and insights in this book.

Views and Research

Ferguson is often called a conservative historian. He describes himself as a "classic Scottish Enlightenment liberal." He believes that some people on the political left enjoy being "provoked" by his ideas.

World War I

In his 1998 book, The Pity of War, Ferguson looked at ten common ideas about World War I and challenged them. He suggested that it might have been better for Europe if Britain had not joined the war in 1914, which could have allowed Germany to win quickly. He argued that Britain's decision to join the war prevented a German victory early on.

Ferguson also disagreed with the idea that Imperial Germany deliberately started an aggressive war in 1914. He believed Germany fought a preventive war, partly because of unclear British diplomacy. He also argued that the origins of National Socialism came from World War I and its aftermath, not from Imperial Germany itself.

He challenged several "myths" about the war:

  • That Germany was very militaristic before 1914 (he claims it was Europe's most anti-militarist country).
  • That Britain feared Germany's navy (he says Germany posed no threat to Britain).
  • That the arms race was too expensive (he says limits on military spending were political, not economic).
  • That a German victory would have been bad for Europe (he suggests a German victory might have led to something like the European Union earlier).
  • That most people were happy about the war (he says most were sad).
  • That propaganda made men want to fight (he argues the opposite).
  • That the Allies used their money well (he says they "squandered" resources).
  • That British and French armies were better (he claims the German Army was superior).
  • That Allies were better at killing Germans (he says Germans were more efficient at killing Allies).
  • That most soldiers hated fighting (he says most fought willingly).
  • That Britain treated German prisoners well (he argues they often killed them).
  • That Germany couldn't pay war reparations (he says they could have if they wanted to).

Ferguson uses "counterfactual history" in his book, imagining what might have happened differently. He suggests that if Germany had won World War I, Europe might have been peaceful and democratic, and millions of lives could have been saved.

Rothschild Family

Ferguson wrote two books about the famous Rothschild family, a powerful banking family: The House of Rothschild: Volume 1: Money's Prophets: 1798–1848 and The House of Rothschild: Volume 2: The World's Banker: 1849–1999. These books were based on his detailed research of old documents. They won awards and were praised by many historians.

Counterfactual History

Ferguson sometimes uses counterfactual history, which means imagining "what if" scenarios in history. He edited a book of essays called Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals (1997) about this method. He believes that history is shaped by individuals and that nothing is set in stone. He uses this method to show that different choices could have led to different outcomes.

British Empire

Ferguson has defended the British Empire, saying that it's hard to argue the world would have been better if Europeans had stayed home. He is critical of what he calls "self-flagellation" (being too hard on oneself) in modern European thinking.

Some historians disagree strongly with Ferguson's views on the Empire. They say his ideas are "audacious" but "wrong" or even "false and dangerous." For example, Jon Wilson, a history professor, wrote a book to challenge Ferguson's arguments. Wilson agrees that the British brought some good things to India, like civil services and railways, but says it was for their own benefit, not out of kindness. He argues that Ferguson doesn't look at the Empire from the perspective of the people who were ruled.

Islam and "Eurabia"

Ferguson has commented on the idea of "Eurabia", which suggests a future where Europe becomes more Islamic. He has said that some of his views on this topic have been seen as controversial. He has also compared the modern European Union to the fall of the Western Roman Empire, suggesting that Europe might be in decline.

Regarding the 2015 European migrant crisis, Ferguson compared the large number of refugees entering Europe to historical migrations that led to the fall of the Roman Empire. He believes that Europe's political leaders have not fully understood the cultural and political effects of large-scale immigration. He argues that Islam is different from Judaism and Christianity because it is also a political idea that doesn't always separate religion from government.

Iraq War

Ferguson supported the Iraq War in 2003. He has also said he is not necessarily against future military actions by Western countries around the world.

Donald Trump

Ferguson was initially doubtful that Donald Trump would win the 2016 United States presidential election. He thought Trump would lose the Republican nomination. However, after Brexit, Ferguson changed his mind and thought Trump could win the election. He later said that a presidency under Hillary Clinton might have been more disruptive than Trump's.

In 2018, Ferguson said that while he found Trump's personality "hard to take," he saw positive achievements in his presidency, like a stronger economy. He also thought Trump's foreign policy on China, North Korea, and the Middle East was better than the previous administration's. He believed the media focused too much on Trump's social media behavior instead of his administration's work.

During the 2020 United States presidential election, Ferguson noted that Trump's support among Black and Latino voters had increased. He predicted that Joe Biden would likely win but that the Democratic Party wouldn't have a huge victory. After the election, Ferguson condemned the 2021 United States Capitol attack by Trump supporters, saying they should be prosecuted and that Trump's actions had hurt the Republican Party.

In 2023, Ferguson suggested that Trump could win the 2024 United States presidential election despite legal challenges. He argued that legal actions against Trump might actually help him gain votes. He also believed that Biden's approval ratings were low and that issues related to his family might make voters less concerned about Trump's own legal problems.

Economic Policy

In 2005, Ferguson and economist Laurence J. Kotlikoff proposed changes to American economic policies. They suggested replacing many taxes with a 33% Federal Retail Sales Tax and creating private retirement accounts instead of the current Social Security system. They also proposed a universal health insurance system.

During the Greek government-debt crisis in 2010, Ferguson warned that the United States could face similar financial problems if interest rates rose. He also called for the Federal Reserve to stop its "quantitative easing" program. In 2012, he suggested that the U.S. had enough energy resources to become energy independent, which could lead to a new economic golden age.

Discussions with Paul Krugman

In 2009, Ferguson had a public disagreement with economist Paul Krugman about the American economy. Ferguson argued that the government's policies were confusing and would cause interest rates to rise. Krugman said Ferguson's views were "basic errors" and that he didn't understand the basics of economics. Later, Krugman pointed out that Ferguson's predictions about interest rates had been wrong. Ferguson, in turn, wrote essays criticizing Krugman.

Stanford Cardinal Conversations

In 2018, Ferguson was involved in a disagreement with student leaders at Stanford University. Emails were leaked where he asked for information about a student who had criticized him. He later apologized for these emails and resigned from the program.

Cryptocurrency

Ferguson was initially doubtful about cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. In 2014, he famously ignored his son's advice to buy Bitcoin. However, by 2017, he changed his mind, saying Bitcoin had become a form of "digital gold" for wealthy investors. In 2019, he became an advisor for a digital asset company, saying he was interested in their plan to "reinvent money."

Scottish Nationalism and the British Union

Ferguson has said he was a Scottish nationalist as a teenager but changed his views after moving to England. He believes that Scottish nationalism is sometimes based on a mistaken idea that Scots were always oppressed by the English. He argues that Scotland joined England as an "equal" country in 1707 and that Scots played a big part in the British Empire.

During the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, Ferguson supported Scotland staying in the United Kingdom. He warned about the possible economic problems of independence. In 2021, he criticized the Scottish National Party for its management of Scotland's economy and education. He believes the British government should not always agree to a referendum on independence just because the SNP wins an election.

European Union

In 2011, Ferguson predicted that Britain would leave the European Union (EU) because it was not part of the eurozone. He called the Eurozone a "disaster waiting to happen" in 2012.

During the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, Ferguson first supported Britain staying in the EU, warning of bad economic consequences. However, he later changed his mind and supported Brexit. He explained that his initial support for staying was partly to help the government at the time. He then argued that the EU had been a "disaster" in its money, immigration, and security policies.

In 2020, Ferguson predicted that the EU would become "moribund" (dying) and might collapse. He said the single currency had only helped Northern Europe and Germany, causing problems in Southern Europe. He also argued that the EU's immigration policies would lead to more populist and anti-EU movements. He believed that in the future, people would wonder why there was so much fuss about Brexit, as Britain would have left something that was already falling apart.

COVID-19 Pandemic

Ferguson, using his research on past pandemics like the Spanish flu, predicted in January 2020 that the COVID-19 pandemic would have a major impact. He criticized how both the British and U.S. governments responded, calling their preparations "colossal failures."

However, he also said that the failures were not just due to right-wing populism. He pointed out that other leaders made similar mistakes. He believed that many of the failures in the U.S. were systemic, not just Donald Trump's fault. He also praised "Operation Warp Speed" for developing vaccines quickly.

2023–2024 Israel–Hamas War

After the 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel, Ferguson commented on the conflict between Israel and Hamas. He stated that Israel could no longer co-exist with Hamas in control of Gaza after the attacks on October 7th. He also questioned if Hamas could be destroyed at an acceptable cost.

Personal Life

Ferguson married journalist Sue Douglas in 1994, and they had three children. They divorced in 2011. He then married Ayaan Hirsi Ali on 10 September 2011, and they have two sons. Ferguson dedicated his book Civilization to Ayaan, saying she understands the meaning of Western civilization. In 2023, he, his wife, and their two sons were baptized.

Ferguson has admitted that his intense work habits have sometimes caused stress in his personal life. He was also an inspiration for a character in Alan Bennett's play The History Boys, a history teacher who encourages students to find unusual viewpoints.

In 2018, Ferguson became a citizen of the United States. In 2020, he was elected an Honorary Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh for his work in history and literature. In June 2024, he received a knighthood from King Charles III.

See also

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